Hurricane Isaac

We also see this statement in that last linked story...

"Gulf coast residents were forced to evacuate after the Air Force reported that storm surges could bring tidal waves of 25 feet to the shore."

So if that's true, they were warned what could happen and either thought a higher floor would make them safe or they just ignored it.
And apparently they just said to hell with the mandatory evacuation too.

Mike Seidel and Al Roker... don't do this at home, folks

I keep really screwing up. I put up a post. And then later I go back to put up another post I accidentally hit the edit button instead and that wipes out the earlier post and then replaces it with a new post. I've accidentally done that twice in this thread.

My previous post was referring to a post which had this link in it and that post is now gone. But this is a before and after picture of that apartment building.
And what I speculated about in the earlier post is that since the building looks to be either 3 or 4 stories in height, I would guess they thought they could escape the water if they were on the high floors. Who knows.


http://www.mccarter.org/crimesoftheheart/html/hurricane.html

If the building was a concrete behemoth like Eden on Perdido Key, I might stay in a hurricane if I had no way of evacuating.

I remember reading about one of those condos, maybe during Frederic (I dunno), but the story went that water was sloshing out of the toilets on some of the upper floors. If I remember correctly, it was at the Mariner Condos.

Chrissy8 wrote:bob, youve scared the shit out of me with those stories.

Keep it up, Im a big horror fan.

Pictures are good as stories (they're "worth 1000 words"), Chrissy.
And there are many many pictures of the aftermath of Camille.
The one which always has the most impact on me is the picture of downtown Pass Christian.



When we realize Camille's power was that of an F3 tornado only much much larger than a tornado, this picture helps us understand that.

Galveston,

Yomama wrote:Galveston,

Killed about 5 times more people than Katrina did.

But they never even knew what was about to him them and there weren't no Jim Cantores back then. This was the state of forecasting for them...

"The Weather Bureau forecasters had no way of knowing where the storm was or where it was going. At the time, they discouraged the use of terms such as tornado or hurricane to avoid panicking residents in the path of any storm event."

Jeebus.

I was just a little kid when Camille hit, but I remember it. I think we were out of power for several days.

Nekochan wrote:I was just a little kid when Camille hit, but I remember it. I think we were out of power for several days.

I was about 19. I surfed Camille.

Do you remember--Did the power go out around Pensacola during Camille?
Mostly, I remember getting ready for it. I remember us going to Town and Country Plaza (was it Murphy's?) to buy supplies beforehand.

Nekochan wrote:Do you remember--Did the power go out around Pensacola during Camille?
Mostly, I remember getting ready for it. I remember us going to Town and Country Plaza (was it Murphy's?) to buy supplies beforehand.

I don't remember the power going out for Camille. The waves were so big that I couldn't make it "outside" the break where the big waves were coming in. I threw my board onto the beach and swam out and bodysurfed for hours. It was the best bodysurfing I have ever had.

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Here's a good account of the Galveston storm. http://www.history.noaa.gov/stories_tales/cline2.html

Oh, to be young and invincible!

Nekochan wrote:Oh, to be young and invincible!

I "friended" an old high school buddy on Facebook. We used to surf together, but he had an unusual comment about me. He said I "was tall and strong and not to be denied."

I guess he was referring to wave selections. (The guy that catches the wave first... or intimidates the most... stays on the wave and the other guys back off and let the first guy have the wave.)

Is that Ghandi?

I was 20 when Camille hit. And when Frederick hit ten years later I remember saying to myself "the wind feels about the same strength here as it did for Camille".
That was even though the center of Camille was about 60 miles further away from us here.

Ya'll may no longer remember but coincidentally Camille hit Mississippi the same day Woodstock was happening (August 17).
Two weeks later I went to New Orleans' version of Woodstock on August 31.
The whole Mississippi gulf coast was still closed off then. We had to detour and go around it. The detour was about 25 miles north of the coast. And the thing I'll always remember seeing is the trees. Even 25 miles north of the coast, when you got to where the center of the hurricane had come through almost whole forests full of trees were all lying on the ground.

The damndest thing about Camille was the wind speed at the center as it made landfall. Nobody really knows what that figure was for certain because
all the wind measuring apparatus on the ground blew away.
But there is this one report that may give us some insight into that...

Late on August 17, a reconnaissance flight was forced to end its mission early due to a damaged engine. Before it left the storm, the crew recorded a pressure of 909 hectopascals (26.8 inHg) and estimated surface winds at 190 mph (305 km/h), while Camille was located about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of the Mississippi River Delta.[3] There were no subsequent Hurricane Hunter flights, but it is estimated the hurricane maintained much of its intensity.

If that 190mph figure is correct, that's a wind speed that is only 17 mph less than that of an F4 tornado (the 2nd most powerful class of tornadoes).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille#Meteorological_history

This picture is even a little prettier than the last one you posted, Eric.



THE TRACK GUIDANCE MADE AN EASTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THIS WAS LED BY THE GFS...WHICH CHANGED TO A TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE NOW ON THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...
SHOWING A TRACK ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS
MODELS. THERE REMAINS A SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 48
HR. THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF
SHOW A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

The intensity forecast at landfall is still holding steady at 85 mph (cat 1)

If the track stays east of us by at least just this much and the intensity is cat 1, we will barely even feel this one, wind or water.

[img][/img]

im more worried about the tornados that pop up from these things.

but my worries as becoming less now that i ahve had 3 beers

ive decided to have a party and enjoy life as I really cant change anything....

no what I mean vern?

hey, what happened to all the ensemble members? Theres only one now, and its out for me and then you. yommma or bob, are yall a ensemble member fucking with us?

[img][/img]

Okay here's some more good news. Take a look at this chart and notice that the GFS (which is the same model track in Chrissy's post above) is one of the models which has the best track record for accuracy...



And the good news is the GFS (red line on this map) is now predicting the most easterly track for the storm...

This is the projected path for ECMWF, which is statistically the most reliable for the early models:

Dammit when I wake up this morning both the ECMWF and the GFS have shifted slightly west again when it makes the landfall up here. This is just too close for comfort.
And it now it looks like the thing may not track over Cuba but just skirt beside it and that's not good either.

Also the storm is big in size like ivan and katrina and not small like dennis. So the power outages will probably be over a wider area.

But in any case we need to remind ourselves of how inaccurate this forecast turned out to be.