Hurricane Isaac

It ain't even a hurricane, Bob. Yesterday, they had bumped the map to show it a hurricane right about now. Now, the map they're showing indicates it remains a Tropical Storm until it gets halfway across the Gulf... lower intensity at landfall. A good thing.

reaper1948 wrote:it depends on a ridge coming down from the north

That's the key to it.
And since the hurricane and the ridge are both moving, the models are having to predict exactly when the two will meet and start interacting with each other.
It's like a train coming in one direction and a car coming towards it at an angle. The speed of both the train and the car will determine whether or not the car can cross in front of the train or will collide with the train. And apparently one model is crunching the data and thinks the car can get past the train. And the other one is crunching the data and thinking that won't happen.
But as more time passes and the train and the car get closer to each other it will be easier for both models to predict the outcome. And that's when the model tracks will start to move closer together. But the question is will the one model move more to the west? Or will the other model move toward the east?

Later this evening they'll run the GFS again before the next Hurricane Center advisory at 10 PM. And if the GFS starts to shift back eastward from where it's at now that will tell us something.
And then later on in the early morning the HWCFL will run again and maybe it will start to shift westward. We'll know about that when we wake up tomorrow and see what the 4 AM advisory is saying.

Yesterday on the guess thread I called NOLA at a Cat 3, I'm stickin to it..

Yomama wrote:It ain't even a hurricane, Bob. Yesterday, they had bumped the map to show it a hurricane right about now. Now, the map they're showing indicates it remains a Tropical Storm until it gets halfway across the Gulf... lower intensity at landfall. A good thing.

That's real good news.

Well as of 4PM the Hurricane Center is still forecasting 105 mph at landfall (cat 2).
But as we know, the intensity forecast is still not as reliable as the track forecasting (and the forecasters themselves emphasize that) so anything goes.

5 Things that make a hurricane the least of your worries.
1. My Husband just got out of prison and I told him about us.

2 Those are not fireflys, they are tracers

3 Dad. There is a cop out front looking at your garden

4 Wow I did not know your wife had a video on XTube.

5..Dont worry sir, I dont have any insurance but I will pay for the damage.

I'll revise that.. I think it will hit a 3 but weaken to a strong Cat 2 by landfall..

Bob wrote:

Ghost_Rider1 wrote:What is with all the fretting and anxiety?

Well I guess we should recap for those who don't know. There's a hurricane in the gulf and our area is in a hurricane warning. It's something we tend to talk about around these parts when it's happening.

Talking about it is one thing, fretting, anxiety and being scared shitless is another. Fretting over it ain't gonna change a damn thing. If it is gonna hit us it is gonna hit us and no amount of worry is going to change that.

I say let 'em blow!

Bob wrote:Well I'll be darned. It looks like it's being talked about on your forum too. lol

Yeah it is one of the topics of discussion over there but if you read my posts there you will find that are are along the same lines as mine here and it ain't 11 pages long either.

Bob when you live in tornado prone Oklahoma as long as I did I tend not to get overly excited about a Cat 1, 2 or 3 hurricane.

After reading all the discussions on storm 2k I have to change my thinking. In fact if it stays on this path at the last minute could take a path of Rita.
But we all know it could also take a turn this way at the last minute. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

found Romney's theme song while I was rummaging.

Yo ho, yo ho, a pirate's life for me.
We pillage plunder, we rifle and loot.
Drink up me 'earties, yo ho.
We kidnap and ravage and don't give a hoot.
Drink up me 'earties, yo ho.

Yo ho, yo ho, a pirate's life for me.
We extort and pilfer, we filch and sack.
Drink up me 'earties, yo ho.
Maraud and embezzle and even highjack.
Drink up me 'earties, yo ho.

Sounds like the S and H twins to me. Studer and Hayward.

[quote="Ghost_Rider1"]

Bob wrote:
I tend not to get overly excited about a Cat 1, 2 or 3 hurricane.

I said earlier in the thread that I never got excited about hurricanes until 2004.
And I still don't get excited about a cat 1 or 2. But that strong cat 3 definitely changed my attitude. Especially when that full size pine tree in the back yard broke in half and flew into the side of the house. The sensation of that inside the house definitely got me some anxiety.
And then when I looked out the bathroom window in the blackness and all I could see is tree limbs against the window there was even more anxiety.
But my anxiety was nothing compared to that of two friends who live closer to the center. One on pine forest road had 7 pines come onto his house and the limbs punched through the roof in 3 places while he and his family were inside.
And another who lives in in Seminole was even closer to the eyewall.
I remember it well. We talked on the phone at about 10 and he and his wife were still watching a movie. But not long after that the back wall of his house was starting to collapse and he spent the rest of the night trying to keep it intact and keep the rain out.
And then the next day I heard where an old high school friend, Joe Greenblatt, was in his house in Grande Lagoon. And the house broke apart and he drowned.

No, this thing is not really a worry to me either (unless it changes). But I won't say that about category 3 hurricanes which make a direct hit anymore.

Bob wrote:And then the next day I heard where an old high school friend, Joe Greenblatt, was in his house in Grande Lagoon. And the house broke apart and he drowned.

Didn't Joe own Dixie Cleaners?

I was looking at this a few minutes ago... http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Current.aspx?animate=true and they're showing a High slipping down out of the North and sitting north of Auburn, AL. I didn't hear about this when they were talking about steering currents. If there is a High over Alabama, I can see how they say the storm is going West.

A frame from that animation.

hallmarkgrad wrote:I rode out Ivan on Bermuda lane in Seminole in a Mobile home. It was interesting to say the least. But the Mobile home help up well, just lost a few singles, I did not even file a claim. But it did knock down a couple of older ones on Hunting club road.

My friend is in Seminole Landing on the river. Is Bermuda Lane anywhere near that?

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/atcf/AL09_current.png

Here's some models that screw with you.

[quote="Bob"]

Ghost_Rider1 wrote:

Bob wrote:
I tend not to get overly excited about a Cat 1, 2 or 3 hurricane.

I said earlier in the thread that I never got excited about hurricanes until 2004.
And I still don't get excited about a cat 1 or 2. But that strong cat 3 definitely changed my attitude. Especially when that full size pine tree in the back yard broke in half and flew into the side of the house. The sensation of that inside the house definitely got me some anxiety.
And then when I looked out the bathroom window in the blackness and all I could see is tree limbs against the window there was even more anxiety.
But my anxiety was nothing compared to that of two friends who live closer to the center. One on pine forest road had 7 pines come onto his house and the limbs punched through the roof in 3 places while he and his family were inside.
And another who lives in in Seminole was even closer to the eyewall.
I remember it well. We talked on the phone at about 10 and he and his wife were still watching a movie. But not long after that the back wall of his house was starting to collapse and he spent the rest of the night trying to keep it intact and keep the rain out.
And then the next day I heard where an old high school friend, Joe Greenblatt, was in his house in Grande Lagoon. And the house broke apart and he drowned.

No, this thing is not really a worry to me either (unless it changes). But I won't say that about category 3 hurricanes which make a direct hit anymore.

I hear ya man. I never thought much about tornadoes until an F5 hit our area in Oklahoma. When we exited from the storm shelter behind our house and everything around us as far as the eye could see was flattened, then that certainly gave me a brand new perspective.

Yomama wrote:
Didn't Joe own Dixie Cleaners?

yep

I'll be safety sleeping in my FEMA trailer guaranteed by the FEDERAL Government for 135 MPH.

Ghost_Rider1 wrote:

I hear ya man. I never thought much about tornadoes until an F5 hit our area in Oklahoma. When we exited from the storm shelter behind our house and everything around us as far as the eye could see was flattened, then that certainly gave me a brand new perspective.

I'll take a hurricane any day over having to ever experience something like that.
What was the sensation like inside the shelter when it was happening above?

I went up to Birmingham where Eric lives on business in 1998 not long after that F5 went through the northwest part of town. I mentioned the tornado to the person who lives there who I was meeting with. He said "it's not far, let's drive out there and you can see it".
I'll never forget that experience. We were driving down this road and everything looked completely normal. And then I saw an open field up ahead and then we were in the open field. Except it wasn't an open field.
It was this swath which went left and right to the horizons and it was like a giant bulldozer had come through and everything in the swath was gone. Only thing left were the concrete foundations or the basements (in the houses that had basements). No trees nothing.

TEOTWAWKI wrote:I'll be safety sleeping in my FEMA trailer guaranteed by the FEDERAL Government for 135 MPH.

I'm so happy you have put your trust in the Federal Gubment.