The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

From storm2k

#3751 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 30, 2016 1:49 pm

So the 12z ECM trended a bit further West as well as the ECM EPS at 00z. The 12 GEFS also trended further west and well as GEM and the GEPS a lot further west near P'Cola.

Starting to think this will be a FL Panhandle landfall instead of over near Cedar Key.

I also see the JMA 12z came further West with Landfall near PCB.


3756 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:03 pm

tolakram wrote:
Weatherbell higher rez shows 983mb at landfall between 60 and 66 hours.


I'm getting 979mb just before landfall.
1 likes

Oh no oat might be right.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2016_09L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_03.gif

Please do.....the scientist will understand, the dart throwers......not so much. I cannot wait to see how many socks you can create on that site to respond......

ppaca wrote:Oh no oat might be right.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2016_09L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_03.gif

I sure hope he is.  Right now I can barely walk from the effects of the ipilimumab.  There's no way I'm in any condition to stow away all that crap I drug into the backyard from yard sales if it comes here.  At this point there's nothing I would like better than for it to go to Texas and then tell seaoat that he's far more expert on tropical cyclones than the world's best meteorologists.   lol

[b]then tell seaoat that he's far more expert on tropical cyclones than the world's best meteorologists. lol[b]

I will wait to the Storm sniffer admits the same.......I already know you understand the prowess of seaoats as you spent most of your high school years on the beach, but Linda lives on the beach and is blind to the obvious.

Right now I can barely walk from the effects of the ipilimumab.

I get it. I could no more move the RV the way I am feeling right now. I have sent a message to my Doctor to prescribe Medical pot, or I am driving to Colorado to get some edibles. I have had three nights this week where the pain was so fricking bad that I slept about 2 hours, and I refuse to take the opiates because I think that sets up a cycle which will not end well. I save those when the pain becomes unbearable, and right now it is just a constant 4-6. I also have asked for a kidney stone referral because I have a huge kidney stone in my right kidney where I am unable to distinguish the pain from the marble size tumors in my lung, the huge tumor on my liver, and now a huge kidney stone.........all is good without pain, but I am getting medical pot one way or another, and I hope it is by proper prescription. I have NO interest in getting high, but when I cannot sleep, I realize this is getting much worse.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Bob wrote:

ppaca wrote:Oh no oat might be right.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2016_09L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_03.gif

I sure hope he is.  Right now I can barely walk from the effects of the ipilimumab.  There's no way I'm in any condition to stow away all that crap I drug into the backyard from yard sales if it comes here.  At this point there's nothing I would like better than for it to go to Texas and then tell seaoat that he's far more expert on tropical cyclones than the world's best meteorologists.   lol

If you need help after the storm my wife and I will come over this weekend and help you put it back together.

ppaca wrote:

If you need help after the storm my wife and I will come over this weekend and help you put it back together.

You're a good soul.

ppaca wrote:http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

When that gets to the end of the animation it appears that the storm is now moving north as forecast. Then later in the forecast it's of course supposed to turn more northeast.

You're a good soul.

I told him to try to get an invite over so he can tie you to that tree.....but being your 72 hours is so F'd up he is right......after the storm......

When that gets to the end of the animation it appears that the storm is now moving north as forecast. Then later in the forecast it's of course supposed to turn more northeast.


Latitude and intensity remain basically constant with 10mph westerly movement in light winds......hint......one methodology is correct.

Emergency operations in Pasco county has put out an evacuation order for anyone in flood prone areas.

2seaoat wrote:When that gets to the end of the animation it appears that the storm is now moving north as forecast. Then later in the forecast it's of course supposed to turn more northeast.


Latitude and intensity remain basically constant with 10mph westerly movement in light winds......hint......one methodology is correct.

Those folks in Texas better be on alert. lol

ppaca wrote:Emergency operations in Pasco county has put out an evacuation order for anyone in flood prone areas.

Apparently those folk aren't using what seaoat calls the best of two "methodologies" elst they would know the storm is going to Texas. lol

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM
THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE
WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 87.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 87.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 87.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 36.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 87.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

This is before Allen can say it

They left Tampa Bay out.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM
THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE
WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 87.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 87.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 87.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 36.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 87.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Pretty much the same as their 72 hour forecast...

lol I beat you to it.

ppaca wrote:lol I beat you to it.

By 1 minute. lol

By the way, disregard that cone I just posted. I just looked again and see that's still the 10AM cone. They'll get that updated shortly.

Here's the latest cone.  Damnit it's shifted slightly towards us.  Shit.

Looks like we'll be getting the worst of it about midday on Thursday.

from the boards

#5352 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:10 pm

I would not feeling warm and fuzzy if I lived as far west as the AL/Fl. border. IMO

Besides storm2k TD 9 being the longest thread this one here may end up being one after hurricane season.

Allen is reporting on wear and he hasn't even said anything about the watches and the little shift west. Why don't you make a guest appearance via skype.

Well he did just say a shift to the west a little bit.