The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

RealLindaL wrote:

I'm getting nervous.  Damned Euro.  Are you ignoring the GFS??

Back later,
LL

I'm on pins and needles waiting for the next runs of both models.
Both to see if the ECMWF continues the same trend in the track forecast AND to see if the GFS starts to get more in agreement with it.

But remember it's the track forecast which is more reliable. So I wouldn't pay as much attention to that category 3 stuff just yet. If and when it makes the northerly turn, I think by then we'll have a better idea of the potential intensity at landfall. These computer thingies are really not that smart on the intensity side of it yet.

SheWrites wrote:Got my transistor radio tuned to WBSR and waiting on coordinates.  

Lol

Let me know your opinion in the morning. I need to drive down sunday night after grandkids birthday parties.......drive the prius rather than the truck......get their Tuesday and rent an all terrain fork lift.....chain my screened porch which I put on cotter pins and slideouts I designed...pull the porch away from the park model....chain the hitch to the forklift....lift and pull.....no time for an overweight permit, and I will find some higher ground and if the one man I spoke to last time down has some truck time, once I separate he has fenced storage which I can pay a couple month storage until after hurricane season, hop in the prius and be back by Friday morning for an appointment.

So we will see how good this dart board chit is.......but if I leave Monday, there is a high probability I am going to get myself into a mess. A rental early in the week on Tuesday for a day should be ok.....the later into the week everybody is going to be moving equipment to high and secure ground.

I hope you are right.....but Bob is my tommy skillethead.....he tells me it is not darts......he also said he was voting for Trump......you may have something Sal.......I almost forgot where he went to school.

Bob I don't see an 00z for the Euro yet. You sure about that run time?

In any event I realized in looking at that last run that the predicted hit on P'Cola was at 160 hours-- that's seven days away. Much more time than I was thinking. So I'm back in a wait and see mode.

And have you seen the 18z GFS?? Crazy nutso like another run the other day. It does bring the storm up toward us but then turns it east across the peninsula, then wanders back around our vicinity for a while. What a prediction MESS.

Nobody knows bupkus.

Sal wrote:Worry warts ...

... it's not even a tropical storm.

Pull yourselves together.

The HWRF now has it making a direct hit on Tampa Bay.



And the latest spaghetti is shifting your way too.

Okay this one is just getting ridiculous. This is one time I'll concede the dartboard argument to seaoat. lol

RealLindaL wrote:Bob I don't see an 00z for the Euro yet.  You sure about that run time?

I got that from a storm2k post.

Okay this one is just getting ridiculous. This is one time I'll concede the dartboard argument to seaoat. lol


The one time I need some science, and you go all dart board on me.......If you see a park model floating in Escambia Bay next week, you will understand Seaoat's luck. Now that I think of it, I guess I could stop at tractor supply and get sixty feet of chain and chain it to an Oak tree........just in case, but my guess is.....I will wait to Wed. thinking the projections will miss Pensacola, it will turn and bam.....I will be unable to come down.......and the USS Seaoat will be floating in Escambia Bay.

The reason this one is more "dartboard" appearing than most is because it's getting our attention over a very long time span without developing a center of circulation that would at least give us a shot at seeing model concurrence.   We've been told over and over that, until the models can initiate on a common C of C, all bets are off.  So no wonder they're not in agreement!  And remember:  even if they were miraculously all in sync tomorrow morning, UNLESS a C of C were in evidence, it would all be rather meaningless.

Well there was an 00z run of the euro model and here it is. Looking better for us (if any of this turns out to be true)...

For what it's worth, the latest GFS seems to be more in agreement with it.

It's 6:25 and I just watched some clown on The Weather Channel who was telling the audience that "social media exaggerates" these storms.

Never have I heard a worse example of the pot calling the kettle black, and that even includes Donald Trump calling people liars.  lol

latest HWRF run.

I didn't see that but just saw postle say the NHC now gives this a 60% chance of development over the next few days in around the middle of gulf.

HWRF only reliable for strength.

AFter I posted the 60% he turned right around and said the NHC doesn't expect it to develop. WTF

Even if it does go to Tampa Bay that forecast is saying it will be either a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane at landfall.

I remember when I was in college at UWF,  and the eye of a category 1 hurricane went right over the campus.  But even though I was walking on the campus going from one place to another,  I never actually felt like I was in anything except some breezy wind.

I may be a scaredy cat when it comes to the big ones,  but I laugh at category 1's (unless you live on the waterfront).

ppaca wrote:AFter  I posted the 60% he turned right around and said the NHC doesn't expect it to develop. WTF

If the NHC turns out to be right, then seaoat has to eat crow because they haven't predicted this thing will do much of anything.

If the NHC turns out to be right, then seaoat has to eat crow because they haven't predicted this thing will do much of anything.


I need to eat crow because they cannot predict anything.....I think that is the essence of dart board which has been my argument for years. I am going to the grandkids birthday party and not planning on leaving for Florida because it is pure dartboard.....our science has not caught up to the human expectation that we will actually get useful information which gives us a planning horizon which can save lives. One thing for sure is that my second thesis that the blow up weather threats to get viewership and internet clicks and make profit......it sounds like a twofer for Seaoat.

2seaoat wrote:If the NHC turns out to be right, then seaoat has to eat crow because they haven't predicted this thing will do much of anything.


I need to eat crow because they cannot predict anything.....I think that is the essence of dart board which has been my argument for years.  I am going to the grandkids birthday party and not planning on leaving for Florida because it is pure dartboard.....our science has not caught up to the human expectation that we will actually get useful information which gives us a planning horizon which can save lives.  One thing for sure is that my second thesis that the blow up weather threats to get viewership and internet clicks and make profit......it sounds like a twofer for Seaoat.

You seem to have this uncanny ability to always miss the point. It always seems to go right over your head.

All these various computer thingies and the jim cantores are the only ones "throwing darts".
The National Hurricane Center hasn't thrown a single dart on this one.
That's the point.

The latest storm2k post...

"Shear, like it has been doing recently, will keep this storm in check. Without it this system is already a named storm. Every time any system threatens land it is shear that appears. Without it someone living on the Gulf of Mexico would no doubt have a bad storm with how much of a fight this system is putting up. It may make for boring weather but the boring part has saved lives. I see the center is exposed once again and racing west into the keys. Still very disorganized."