The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

ppaca wrote:from the boards

#5352 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:10 pm

I would not feeling warm and fuzzy if I lived as far west as the AL/Fl. border. IMO

I agree. Mainly because the forecast track is now close enough to us that only a slight unexpected change in the whole thing could send it our way.

The one thing we definitely don't want is for the center of the circulation to come in west of us.
But I don't think that's likely because we're now less than 48 hours from landfall and I don't expect the cone to shift that much (knock on wood).

Sal wrote:There will be further adjustments to the west.

Could be. I don't know if you were living in the Bay area in 2004. But if so you'll remember they were telling you Hurricane Charley was coming straight for you. But apparently it hadn't read the forecasts and at the last minute it decided to make a turn into Charlotte County. And not only that but it defied the forecasts by blowing up to category 4 at the last minute as well.

Predicting what nature will do is one part science, one part art, and one part luck.

Sal wrote:There will be further adjustments to the west.

It's sort of looking that way.

You realize this takes up most of the gulf if you look at ir.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118166&start=5380

FWIW, this post just came in to storm2k...

Storm's really blowing up now around the low level center. Especially south side. Not as much action yet in the northern quadrant. System itself looks to be maintaining a west heading. Don't as yet see any northern component.

I must have been imagining seeing that shift to the north earlier.

Bob wrote:FWIW,  this post just came in to storm2k...

Storm's really blowing up now around the low level center. Especially south side. Not as much action yet in the northern quadrant. System itself looks to be maintaining a west heading. Don't as yet see any northern component.

I must have been imagining seeing that shift to the north earlier.

Not yet and if that trough gets by before I'm afraid that cone of uncertainty will move this way even further.

Allen Strum just reported it has started to make it's turn. I don't see it.

ppaca wrote:

RealLindaL wrote:
Oh for Pete's sake.  

I'm going to the beach.

BBL,
LL

When you're out there notice how the winds feel and the air smells. Tropical?

Just back and about to hit the shower.  Here's my beach report, ppaca.  More than you wanted to know, but feel free to advise if you need yet more input:

East wind feels wonderful -- just slight cooler than it's been in a long while.  Brisk but not at sandblast level.  Air is still plenty humid, but that's always the case next to the sea.   The water is plenty roiled up, as happens every time there's a TC of just about any magnitude anywhere in the Gulf.   But it's not a washing machine yet -- just very rough, with continuous high rollers, and the surfers are out in force, having an absolute ball.  
Water has of course lost its clear aqua appearance; is now becoming murky with bits of suspended seaweed; color is dark opaque teal tending toward spruce green, with areas of brownish green beginning to take over near shore.   Water temp is definitely cooler, indicating at least some slight upwelling.   (Prior to this week the water had been feeling like a tepid bath, not refreshing at all, as is usual for late August. This is a nice change.)
Rips are apparently strong with the east fetch as there's a red flag flying.   I ventured out about thigh deep but only once and only for about three minutes before hustling back to my chair to read, contemplate, and continue nasal observations.
TD9 is not coming here, nor is it heading for Texas.   Linda the Storm Sniffer has definitively spoken.

Hey that's good in fact better than Allen Strum lol.

Thanks

the center has dropped back SW about 25 miles. from second pass

ppaca wrote:Hey that's good in fact better than Allen Strum lol.

Thanks

Glad you liked it.  

And with watches and warnings now issued, hope you and Bob can relax a little.  

As for Seaoat, of course he will adhere furiously to his own position (whatever it happens to be at any given moment).   And Bob is right:  Sea will never in a million years admit to having been wrong about Texas.  NEVER.  What Bob will get if he calls Sea on it is yet more senseless, smoke-and-mirrors babble.  Just wait and Sea.

L8R,
LL

Bob wrote: Right now I can barely walk from the effects of the ipilimumab.

Bob, this makes me so sad.     Wish I could wave a magic wand and fix it all for you.

I'm glad the storm is not coming here,  but also grateful to ppaca and wife for offering to stand by for you in case help is needed in the aftermath of any effects from the storm (which I personally expect will be minimal to non-existent, but maybe that's just moi right now).  Very kind of you folks, ppaca.

Off to shower and cook up some chicken paprikash.  Yum.  Small things in life.

RealLindaL wrote:

Bob wrote: Right now I can barely walk from the effects of the ipilimumab.

Bob, this makes me so sad.     Wish I could wave a magic wand and fix it all for you.

You're a good soul too, Linda.
But there is always a silver lining in every cloud and there is in this one too.
As long as the treatment drug is giving me the side effects, I think that means it's still working on the cancer too. I don't mind trading leg weakness for cancer remission. lol

I would never say never 2 meteorologist on storm2k are leaning more and more towards this area, but as they say no one can be certain at this point where it may make landfall. But look at this.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

Hope you feel better, Bob.

you know Ivan was TD9 in 2004

Joanimaroni wrote:Hope you feel better, Bob.

Thanks, Joani

ppaca wrote:you know Ivan was TD9 in 2004

But that was only way early in it's life.  

On September 2, 2004, Tropical Depression Nine formed from a large tropical wave southwest of Cape Verde. As the system moved to the west, it strengthened gradually, becoming Tropical Storm Ivan on September 3 and reaching hurricane strength on September 5, 1,150 miles (1,850 km) to the east of Tobago. Later that day, the storm intensified rapidly, and by 5 pm EDT (2100 UTC), Ivan became a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 miles per hour (200 km/h).

So only 3 days after it formed off the African coast,  it had already become a cat 3 hurricane.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ivan

Here's the most remarkable thing about Ivan...

"Scientists from the Naval Research Laboratory at Stennis Space Center, Mississippi have used a computer model to predict that, at the height of the storm, the maximum wave height within Ivan's eyewall reached 131 feet"

Can you even imagine a 130 ft wave coming onto Pensacola Beach?  

And that wave would be ON TOP OF the 30 ft storm surge

That would reach to the upper floors of those hotels and condos.  

uh oh.....moving north.

2seaoat wrote:uh oh.....moving north.

Wasn't that the forecast? First north? And then northeast?

It needed to stay on the same plane until Wed morning and be 200 miles west to hit Texas......got to stop going north and accelerate the westerly direction or the C will kick in........and who knows where from Texas to Big bend it will land......I had counted on lower winds......for a bit longer. We will see.

2seaoat wrote:It needed to stay on the same plane until Wed morning and be 200 miles west to hit Texas

Did the Coriolis Effect stop working or what? lol