The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

11:00 AM...

"A 500-mb trough over the southeastern United States should cause the cyclone to move north-northeastward to northeastward across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia during the next couple of days."

On Monday they were saying within one or two days.  Yesterday they were saying within one or two days.  And again today,  one or two days. I expect tomorrow they'll be saying the same thing.
At some point that trough is gonna be gone and then what.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/09/2e/32/092e324f6dcc308e85bf1009788e5731.jpg

Hermine finally.

Yea if it doesn't get moving the trough will be long gone. But there is still one moving down from the upper midwest.

RealLindaL wrote:

Focus on the center of the cone and where it meets land.

If you go back to that link in my last post, you will see that, if this hurricane makes landfall there, it is probably the least hurricane prone coastline in the country. It's only had one hurricane and that was in 1842.

So after learning about this, I'm now going to predict that this storm won't go there. The odds on that are just too long.

Kinda ironic isn't it.

The places hurricanes like to go are the same places a lot of people like to be in.

But there's hardly a soul living on that coast and nary a hurricane in sight.

NHC 5 year errors map/graph

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify4.shtml

Bob wrote:Focus on the center of the cone and where it meets land.

If you go back to that link in my last post,  you will see that,  if this hurricane makes landfall there,  it is probably the least hurricane prone coastline in the country.   It's only had one hurricane and that was in 1842.

So after learning about this,  I'm now going to predict that this storm won't go there. The odds on that are just too long.  

1.  Don't know about anyone else but I'm not about to to focus on the center of the cone,  because that's not the focus!  The focus is the ENTIRE cone, which represents, to quote the NHC, "the probable path of the storm center" itself.  I know you know that, right? Anywhere within that cone could be where the center makes landfall.   So if, when you say the storm "won't go there," you're only talking about the one little spot represented by that invisible center line (which the NHC stopped showing a few years back for this very reason, as you'll recall), that's one thing, but not terribly meaningful, IMHO and still not a very wise bet (read on):

2.   Suggest you consider not banking on long odds.  Doesn't necessarily work any more -- not in this rapidly changing world climate.  One current example you're doubtless aware of:   Last I heard (haven't checked on it today) there were back-to-back hurricanes (two) headed for Hawaii.   Should they hit, that would be unprecedented in recorded history.

Well, Bob, they musta heard you talking and decided to make sure the (non-existent) center line was different. The 4 p.m. update shows the cone has moved slightly more west. Looks to me to be Ft. Walton Beach on the western edge, but am just about to go read the discussion. BBL, LL

Correction: Looking more closely, the cone edge itself is not QUITE that far west -- maybe just east of Destin? But the watch/warning area appears to extend to Ft. Walton.

I just emailed Paolo Ghio and told him I hoped to heck the ECUA wouldn't pull another Hurricane Isaac and threaten to shut off water if the cone should move west to encompass us. Told him we (along with a lot of other people) will NOT evacuate for a Cat. 1.

Hope it doesn't come to that.

Stay tuned.

RealLindaL wrote:

Bob wrote:Focus on the center of the cone and where it meets land.

If you go back to that link in my last post,  you will see that,  if this hurricane makes landfall there,  it is probably the least hurricane prone coastline in the country.   It's only had one hurricane and that was in 1842.

So after learning about this,  I'm now going to predict that this storm won't go there. The odds on that are just too long.  

1.  Don't know about anyone else but I'm not about to to focus on the center of the cone,  because that's not the focus!  The focus is the ENTIRE cone, which represents, to quote the NHC, "the probable path of the storm center" itself.

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lol The only reason I referred to the center of landfall is because that is the common reference to describe hurricane tracks. Just as all these lines are center lines. I was just comparing apples to apples.
Here it is again. All center lines.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/09/2e/32/092e324f6dcc308e85bf1009788e5731.jpg

Smells and feels like hurricane weather outside lol.


Although Hermine is drifting NNE the model trend is trending a little further west than before. Meaning the models are not taking it quiet as far east as before. ULL Midwest is breaking down also. Get the darts out folks.

ppaca wrote:NHC 5 year errors map/graph

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify4.shtml

You'll notice that the AVERAGE error at 72 hours is 115 miles.  
Now if this one turns out to be a larger error,  seaoat will then say "that proves hurricane forecasting is quack science".

In the past seaoat has not seemed to comprehend these statistics so I'll try to explain it to him.
You see,  seaoat,  that doesn't mean the storm will always come in within that 115 miles.  Some forecasts will be off by 150 miles and some will be right on the bullseye like Ivan.  115 miles is the AVERAGE error.

Which leads me to this point.  Before seaoat predicted the storm would go to Texas,  he should have thought that through logically.
How are the forecasters going to maintain a 115 mile average with forecasts that are off by 1000 miles.  That's not even sensible.

If we do get it, Sal, look at it this way.
Every armpit in the summertime needs a regular washing. So I'm planning to stand out on the beach with a bar of soap.

Sal wrote:We've taken the brunt thus far.

We've gotten 7-8" of rain today, and Pinellas has gotten 10"+.

No wind.

Good luck, inhabitants of the armpit!

Is it still raining down there? Saw some short vids on 2k of some Tampa flooding.

Sal wrote:Still raining.

It has rained ALL day.

Morning rush hour was a nightmare.

It's just a steady shower at the moment, but it looks like some more heavy stuff is on our door step.

Sheesh.

Well good luck.

Hey our local Meg is reporting from the beach and some other guy at miramar beach. lol

Not looking to good. Have a flight into Pensacola Thursday PM

Joanimaroni wrote:Not looking to good. Have a flight into Pensacola Thursday PM

If that latest NHC track forecast holds true, it looks like we'll be getting the peak of whatever we'll be getting sometime tomorrow night. If the center of it is coming close to us, they'll obviously close the airport.
But, if the center comes in somewhere east of Destin like they're now predicting, and it's still a minimal storm when that happens, we shouldn't be getting enough wind here to cancel flights. But I don't have a clue what the airport or airline policy would be on that.

Which leads me to this point. Before seaoat predicted the storm would go to Texas, he should have thought that through logically.
How are the forecasters going to maintain a 115 mile average with forecasts that are off by 1000 miles. That's not even sensible.



1. It appears I will be wrong on Texas.....the winds intensified and it began to creep north where the C effect is now being seen.

2. They have been wrong as to location and time. Bob, thinks that 115 miles is the standard. I have argued that scientific reliability should not have an area no more than fifty miles for certainty which can save lives and have something which even comes close to allowing citizens to make informed decisions.

3. This could still hit Pensacola, Texas, or Marco Island, but as we get close to the 24 hour threshold.......the reliability becomes useful, but the time to react is insufficient. My point remains......we are still playing darts, mine was wrong, Bob's was wrong, and the linear threads of the forecast all went north and west meaning there is a very good chance my RV will be floating in Escambia Bay........when it was suppose to hit Sal.....but Sal is getting flooded anyway.......

The storm has not yet been picked up by the trough. Should have happened by now. Feel like it's possible the storm could be left lingering for awhile in the SE Gulf. Models don't show it. But if the model forecast is to pan out, Hermine needs to begin a decisive N movement overnight (I think).

Posted on the storm boards.