The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

ppaca wrote:GFS shifting back more west, I told ya.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118167&start=3720

Has it here at 6z (1 PM) on friday.

ppaca,

"By 2015 the GFS model had fallen behind the accuracy of other global weather models.[2][3] This was most notable in the GFS model incorrectly predicting Hurricane Sandy turning out to sea until 4 days before landfall; while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model predicted landfall correctly at 7 days."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

The science is holding true......low intensity......low shear winds.........same parallel run off the end of Florida......200 miles westerly and still not predicted C effect and no fishhook. Notice how the models have all now gone over a 100 miles north of the original 72 hour prediction.....which gives NOBODY good information. Texas.

anything is possible at this point.

2seaoat wrote:The science is holding true......low intensity......low shear winds.........same parallel run off the end of Florida......200 miles westerly and still not predicted C effect and no fishhook.  Notice how the models have all now gone over a 100 miles north of the original 72 hour prediction.....which gives NOBODY good information.   Texas.

It aint me that needs to be on Channel 3 giving the weather,  it's you.

What's so sad is how you fail to recognize the absurdity of this post.

Up until now,  you've always told us in several dozen threads that hurricane forecasting is a pseudo science which is no better than throwing random darts at a dart board because you can't use meteorological data to predict where hurricanes will go because the info is too short term (as opposed to predicting global warming which is long term).

But now you seem to have totally forgotten that's been your position on this all along.
Because now you've abandoned the dart board and you're using (supposed) meterological data to forecast a hurricane.
That really is the height of absurdity.  lol

As I've so often told you, you are Donald Trump made over.

2seaoat wrote: Notice how the models have all now gone over a 100 miles north of the original 72 hour prediction

No I don't notice that because just like Donald Trump you just make up whatever sounds good to you at the time.

This was the 72 hour forecast yesterday...



This is the latest forecast...

No Bob....you are showing your Escambia education again. I chose one model early on which showed a higher percentage of accuracy in low wind disorganized storms. I actually believe that each model has built in bias and factors which in any particular storm may give what normally is not the most reliable indicator into the most predictive track......that is the essence of dartboard. It indicates that using reliability over many storms really does not give one the ability to discern the indicators best suited for a particular storm. You think I am some kind of magic man and can predict things without doing some homework and trying to understand the parameters. I have been right all along, not because of some hidden talent, but because this storm was best predicted with a group of three models.....and those models indicated a westerly flow........geez all that wasted time at the beach when you could have been learning.

Bob wrote:

ppaca wrote:GFS shifting back more west, I told ya.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118167&start=3720

Has it here at 6z (1 PM) on friday.

Bob, the image you showed was "GEFS," whatever the heck that is.  GFS
is holding steady at Big Bend (armpit) as of the 12z (see below).   I'm running back out to the beach and will post further later.   Just had to correct this.  Let's be careful, folks.  

Sal wrote:Yep, anything is possible, but I'm beginning to get a sinking feeling that New Orleans is going to bear the brunt ....

.... again.

Not happening!!

All the linear models have moved north in excess of a hundred miles.....I cannot help that your graphic does not correspond with the individual models.....go ahead and post the linear predictions with the 10 linear forecasts.

Not happening!!

Linda the Hurricane sniffer has spoken.......update at six.

RealLinda,

ppaca posted a link to a page on stormk2 and said the GFS had changed.
When I went to that page all it had was the GEFS so I posted that graphic.

The GEFS MEAN is one of the products provided by the same folk who give us the GFS.
The GEFS is an ensemble of more than 20 different models.
The GFS is the track they choose to be the consensus of all those GEFS models.

Sorta like the NHC makes use of many different models to help them decide their forecast which in a sense is also making use of an "ensemble".

2seaoat wrote:All the linear models have moved north in excess of a hundred miles.....I cannot help that your graphic does not correspond with the individual models.....go ahead and post the linear predictions with the 10 linear forecasts.

Seaoat, you've already told us so many times that the models and the NHC forecast and all the rest is nothing but a fraud designed to kill people and make money. So anything you try to tell us about predicting hurricanes based on meterological data is purely meaningless and an utter absurdity. lol

All I ever did in this thread was to point out that the NHC track forecast now has an average error of 115 miles for it's 72 hour prediction. And then I said let's see if that proves out when this storm makes landfall.
All this other crap you keep talking about is just more of your nonsensical gibberish.

also making use of an "ensemble".


sometimes it is the solo which inspires.......

They may issue a tropical storm watch later today. I think, once they do that, they feel pretty confident that's where a storm will go.
Let's see what happens with that.

I'm not sure what music videos have to do with all this, but then again I don't pretend to understand how seaoat's mind works. lol

gibberish when your prediction is wrong and mine is gaining credibility.....Again the tools are not well enough developed to help people with sufficient time and accuracy. It is a dartboard, and yes by my growing correct prediction some people throw darts better than others.

Bob wrote:RealLinda,

ppaca posted a link to a page on stormk2 and said the GFS had changed.
When I went to that page all it had was the GEFS so I posted that graphic.

The GEFS MEAN is one of the products provided by the same folk who give us the GFS.
The GEFS is an ensemble of more than 20 different models.
The GFS is the track they choose to be the consensus of all those GEFS models.  

Sorta like the NHC makes use of many different models to help them decide their forecast which in a sense is also making use of an "ensemble".

sorry man I was in a hurry I did post the wrong graphic.

t's still popping convection but yes, it has some ways to go. However, Euro 12z run just came out and showed a strong Cat 2 hurricane heading for the big bend. So..just keep watching.

Another dart.

2seaoat wrote:gibberish when your prediction is wrong and mine is gaining credibility.....Again the tools are not well enough developed to help people with sufficient time and accuracy.   It is a dartboard, and yes by my growing correct prediction some people throw darts better than others.

I don't make hurricane predictions. Never have. Never will.
I leave that to the people who know how to do it.

For Linda,

This will help explain the GEFS

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-ensemble-forecast-system-gefs

2seaoat wrote:gibberish when your prediction is wrong and mine is gaining credibility....

Your "prediction" which you've now stated several times is for the storm to go to Texas. Are you gonna be like Donald Trump now and pretend you never said that? lol

Ensemble and improved forecasting still do not have the scientific certainty of the brilliance of the solo performance which is genius. There was one correct answer. An ensemble has many answers, but does not depend on the scientific certainty of solo predictive science which nails something at a much higher level of scientific proof and genius. I feel like you are celebrating the telegraph in 2016 as the most effective method to communicate with another human. Your own models reject their predictive power less than 24 hours after you made your prediction......darts.

2seaoat wrote:Ensemble and improved forecasting still do not have the scientific certainty of the brilliance of the solo performance which is genius.   There was one correct answer.   An ensemble has many answers, but does not depend on the scientific certainty of solo predictive science which nails something at a much higher level of scientific proof and genius.   I feel like you are celebrating the telegraph in 2016 as the most effective method to communicate with another human.  Your own models reject their predictive power less than 24 hours after you made your prediction......darts.

I'm tempted to quote this verbatim on that storm2k thread to share all your expertise with them. And then link you to their replies. lol

For the umpteenth time. I don't have any models. I don't make any predictions. lol

"An ensemble has many answers, but does not depend on the scientific certainty of solo predictive science which nails something at a much higher level of scientific proof and genius."

If I posted that horseshit to storm2k you would be so embarrassed by the reaction it receives that you would want to run and hide.
Would you like me to do that? lol