The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

Of course when we live inland away from the water, we are safer than living on the shoreline.
That's GENERALLY speaking. But it doesn't mean we'll always be safer. This is the scene 5 miles inland from the water when Hurricane Andrew struck Homestead. This is ALL wind damage...

The last category 5 hurricane struck the U.S. in 1992.  
It had been 23 years since the one prior to that in 1969.  

We're now 24 years from the last one.  

To reach category 5 status,  the cyclone must produce sustained wind speeds of more than 156 mph.  That's equivalent to the wind speed in an EF3 tornado!

Andrew damaged or destroyed 730,000 houses or other buildings in Florida alone (not counting the damage in Louisiana when it made it's second landfall).

99L has regained it's composure, latest Euro run

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118167&start=860

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118167&start=880

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/usatlant.cf.gif

Bob wrote:The last category 5 hurricane struck the U.S. in 1992.  
It had been 23 years since the one prior to that in 1969.  

We're now 24 years from the last one.  

To reach category 5 status,  the cyclone must produce sustained wind speeds of more than 156 mph.  That's equivalent to the wind speed in an EF3 tornado!

Andrew damaged or destroyed 730,000 houses or other buildings in Florida alone (not counting the damage in Louisiana when it made it's second landfall).

2nd year in Florida and my older brother came to visit from Ca, he left 2 days early because of Andrew coming into the Gulf. We went with hundreds of other people to the beach to watch the waves and it went by.

I remember watching the waves as it passed us in the Gulf too,  ppaca.
It's hard to believe we even saw that, being that the center of the storm never got closer than about 300 miles from us.

But I also remember the wind here during Camille.  One thing I still remember is,  that even though the center of category 5 Camille passed 150 miles to the west of us,  the wind here was as bad as that in the category 4 Hurricane Frederic which came in at Dauphin Island much closer to us.

When the next cat 5 approaches the northern gulf coast,  even though I'm 60 feet above sea level,  I aint hanging around to be in a giant EF3 tornado.

Mr know it all still sees dart boards. I am here for a bet if you think your science is worth a crap. 72 hours, and fifty miles......find mid point of eye, 25 miles east, and 25 west.............they can do that a day out which still is a huge variance with the storm wall definition, but heck lower the bet to 25 bucks.....about the price of a pizza......72 hours pick a spot. Just let me know when your fixation of storm maps and Santa Claus actually want to enter the real world.

2seaoat wrote:Mr know it all still sees dart boards.   I am here for a bet if you think your science is worth a crap.   72 hours, and fifty miles......find mid point of eye, 25 miles east, and 25 west.............they can do that a day out which still is a huge variance with the storm wall definition, but heck lower the bet to 25 bucks.....about the price of a pizza......72 hours pick a spot.  Just let me know when your fixation of storm maps and Santa Claus actually want to enter the real world.

This will be the third time I've tried to explain this graph to you.  I'm going to do this one last time.  
The graph clearly shows that today the average error in the forecast at 72 hours out is 120 miles.  Not 50.  



Now,  about this gibberish: "they can do that a day out which still is a huge variance with the storm wall definition".

What the fuck is a "storm wall definition"?  Are you talking about the eye wall?  Exactly how is a graph showing the average error in the forecast track supposed to be "at variance with the storm wall definition"?
The track forecast error refers to the center of circulation.  If the eye wobbles,  or if the eye is 10 miles in diameter or 50 miles in diameter, THERE IS STILL A CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

2seaoat,

Instead of gibberish talk like "hurricane wall definition" and your failure to comprehend that chart, let's try a different approach.

Let's take a look at the last two major hurricanes that struck our area, Ivan in 2004 and Dennis in 2005. And let's look at the NHC's track forecast at 72 hours from landfall.

Then do I hear a yes to a bet when it is 72 hours from landfall that your non dart board science can give us 25 miles to the east and 25 miles to the west of the eye center crossing the mainland.

In regard to your gibberish, I am saying that anything over fifty miles is pure dartboard because of the very reasoning you used to describe wind damage after Ivan in Mobile and Biloxi. By the way my friends in Biloxi who stayed for Katrina because they were told that Ivan was going to be a direct hit. There are many models. After the fact to pick one which was accurate is like saying the bullseye after throwing 15 darts is indicative of the accuracy of all the darts......pleassseeeeeeee. Just tell me when you are ready to put the twenty five bucks up tommy skillethead when we have a hurricane 72 hours out.....but that is a joke also, as the timeline can be off by a day as it skates east or west of the target.

2seaoat wrote:Then do I hear a yes to a bet when it is 72 hours from landfall that your non dart board science can give us 25 miles to the east and 25 miles to the west of the eye center crossing the mainland.

Why would I bet that they can predict a 50 mile window when the average error is a 120 mile window?

Is that how you do all your famous wagering?  If a bookie tells you the spread is 6 points,  you then make an EVEN bet that the favored team will win by 15 points?  How asinine.  LOL

2seaoat wrote:
... I am saying that anything over fifty miles is pure dartboard because of the very reasoning you used to describe wind damage after Ivan in Mobile and Biloxi.  

What I related to is seeing with my own eyes the level of damage in both Biloxi and Mobile.   And there was hardly any in Biloxi and barely any in Mobile.

In fact,  I also drove Highway 59 from Gulf Shores north to Hgwy 98.  The center of the storm went right up Highway 59.  Aside from the immediate waterfront in Gulf Shores,  I was shocked to see so little damage up and down that highway,  even though the hurricane tracked right over it.

Escambia County (FL) was directly in the path of those extreme winds found in a narrow band adjacent to the eye of the storm in it's northeast quadrant.

If the storm center had come in either 50 miles east or 50 miles west of where it did,  the effects on Escambia County would have been dramatically different.  

I am at a loss as to how that "reasoning" confirms whatever it is that you think you're saying.  lol

2seaoat wrote: By the way my friends in Biloxi who stayed for Katrina because they were told that Ivan was going to be a direct hit.

That's why the National Hurricane Center itself puts so much emphasis on what they call their "cone of uncertainty".  

Watch this animation.  During the entire forecast period,  that cone of uncertainty includes Pensacola and Biloxi...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml

Since BOTH hurricanes,  Ivan and Katrina,  had already been at category 5 intensity,  and since I was continuously in the cone of uncertainty for several days prior to landfall,  I would have made plans to evacuate for BOTH hurricanes.  And if one went somewhere else I would celebrate that on my return because my house didn't get damaged.  
Apparently your friends are not that smart,  but that's no surprise.  lol

Bob wrote:

2seaoat wrote: By the way my friends in Biloxi who stayed for Katrina because they were told that Ivan was going to be a direct hit.

That's why the National Hurricane Center itself puts so much emphasis on what they call their "cone of uncertainty".  

Watch this animation.  During the entire forecast period,  that cone of uncertainty includes Pensacola and Biloxi...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml

Since BOTH hurricanes,  Ivan and Katrina,  had already been at category 5 intensity,  and since I was continuously in the cone of uncertainty for several days prior to landfall,  I would have made plans to evacuate for BOTH hurricanes.  And if one went somewhere else I would celebrate that on my return because my house didn't get damaged.  
Apparently your friends are not that smart,  but that's no surprise.  lol

Apparently your friends are not that smart,  but that's no surprise.  lol[/quote]


No doubt dixiecrats.

ppaca wrote:

Bob wrote:

2seaoat wrote: By the way my friends in Biloxi who stayed for Katrina because they were told that Ivan was going to be a direct hit.

That's why the National Hurricane Center itself puts so much emphasis on what they call their "cone of uncertainty".  

Watch this animation.  During the entire forecast period,  that cone of uncertainty includes Pensacola and Biloxi...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml

Since BOTH hurricanes,  Ivan and Katrina,  had already been at category 5 intensity,  and since I was continuously in the cone of uncertainty for several days prior to landfall,  I would have made plans to evacuate for BOTH hurricanes.  And if one went somewhere else I would celebrate that on my return because my house didn't get damaged.  
Apparently your friends are not that smart,  but that's no surprise.  lol

Apparently your friends are not that smart,  but that's no surprise.  lol

No doubt dixiecrats.[/quote]

No doubt. lol

Bob, I have to hand it to you. You are positively demonstrating the patience of Job. lol

RealLindaL wrote:Bob, I have to hand it to you.  You are positively demonstrating the patience of Job.   lol

He reminds me of the guy that beats his head against a brick wall because it feels sooo good when he stops... lol.

He makes it too easy. lol

He makes it too easy. lol


I did.....you threw up the white flag and said you cannot predict landfall of a hurricane 72 hours out, which basically concedes my original hypothesis......darts. Thank you

People have died because of darts......the illusion that they have gotten better can readily be proved with a simple bet.....for ten cents Bob..... a measly dime.......72 hours out play Tommy skillethead......give it a try. Pick one of the current storms and tell me 72 hours out where it will hit landfall....go for it.

It will hit about a block away from Casino Beach. But I can't yet tell whether it will be east or west of Casino Beach. Will need another 24 hours and then I can pin it down to which side of the pavillion it will hit. And I have to tell you to stand on that side at your own risk.

I will wait for you to make a prediction. 72 hours......use whichever model you wish........but there are storms right now.....tell us where they are going. This could not bet more simple. I have zero faith in weather forecasting much beyond the 24 hours. My wife likes to look at accuweather to watch storms crossing the plains heading for Illinois......it should be a piece of cake.....but it really is not, weather is entirely too complex for our computer modeling right now. Four weeks ago the radar was clear to Nebraska, but thirty miles west of us, all weekend spontaneous rain clouds formed and we got rain all weekend, over and over again like there was a vent in the earth 30 mile from here which was spewing storm clouds......my daughter who is less than fifty miles away did not get a drop.

2seaoat wrote:there are storms right now.....tell us where they are going.  This could not bet more simple.

What could not be more simple is for YOU to follow the storms all by yourself via the National Hurricane Center's excellent website.  You don't need Bob to tell you anything --  just go to the same source he's using and figure it out.  Or don't you know how to do that?  

As for Accuweather -- ugh.   They are almost always wrong as to our weather here, seems to me.

[b]They are almost always wrong as to our weather here, seems to me.[b]

Agree. If you were objective you would realize that Hurricane information is equally unreliable and dangerous. My point with Bob over the last three years is that the unreliable portion of forecasting kills people when it is sold that the information being released is reliable. My biggest problem is local talking heads take the most horrible projection of one model out of 10 and create the illusion that with any scientific certainty a particular area is going to be hit.

The idea that someone who has lost over a quarter million dollars of uninsured storm and flood damage would wish the same on somebody else is really pretty low......who thinks like that? In regard to my disdain for beach dwellings, it is the over development and lack of foresight which I have always held in great disdain, I still have neighbors who are friends who cannot sell their places without great losses from buying at the peak and now still not recovering. There pain is tangible, and again who thinks like that?