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The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

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Yes it is 2000 miles away but if you go back to Ivan when it started way out there with almost the same place it didn't deviate very much from it's course, but everyone is correct it can do anything at this point even dissipate.

I like storm2k because it is a gathering of professional meteorologists and lay people that combine and study these and often disagree with the NHC and from what I have seen over the years have a better track record than the NHC.

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This chart shows us how hurricane track forecasts have improved since 1970.

As you can see, in 1970 when a hurricane was 3 days away from landfall, the margin of error in the track forecast was almost 400 nautical miles.
BUT, now that's been reduced to about 100 nautical miles.



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Oh and by the way. I don't think you'll find any difference in the margin of error between 1970 and now with throwing darts at a dartboard. lol

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Please explain the low volume of hurricanes in the 2010 to 2015 period of time allows a comparison to the 2000-2009 period when the frequency alone would cause the averages to be more true than an infrequent period where there were so few hurricanes that blind luck and a dart that hit. Sorry, I would argue that the 250 mile mark at 72 hours is probably statistically more sound because of the volume of hurricanes during that period. This means that 72 hours out if the forecaster had NO as the target it could go 250 miles to the west or Galveston, or 250 miles east to basically Panama City.......to put it another way it could hit anywhere on the fricking Gulf coast three days out......and herein lies the problem........when profits are connected to hits on websites and people tuning into TV weather.........we have hardly improved the 24 hour accuracy from 1970 which simply is not enough time for evacuation of large population centers.....darts.

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Again to help you Bob, there is no sizeable improvement(50) miles in 24 hours. Well we all know a Gulf Hurricane will impact the entire 50 mile area to some degree so the margin of error falls within the storm. The 72 hour forecast appears to compare apples to apples, but again 300 miles three days out is NOT science.....it is dartboard. Talk to me when they achieve landfall 72 hours out at fifty miles so people are properly warned.....we cannot achieve that model, and I would argue that people need three days to harden homes and get the hell out......24 hours and you might as well use the hurricane planes in 1970 to tell you where the storm will impact. I would love to play poker with the off the wall mirage of probabilities of weather forecasting versus real probabilities which are beyond our technical and scientific reach at the present, in the meantime Bob is going all in with a pair of jacks on the flop showing a queen, king, and ace......splendid.

Also, to say one model of a hurricane was correct ignores that there are multiple models which are selected by local weather people to help boost ratings where another model shows impact within their market. darts.

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If y'all think weather is unpredictable down there... you ought to see it in Michigan. That big deep lake makes it a crap shoot. It's literally worse than roulette during the winter. They get it wrong more than right... even during the course of a day. I've never seen anything like it.

In the Chicago area they get ratings days before a snow storm calling for eight inches four days out, then six inches until the day before, and then we get a light dusting of snow, and they have just had off the wall ratings for four days as people want to prepare for the snow. People will flood hardware stores and buy snow blowers and shovels, and no snow. The funniest story is Tommy skillethead from the SNL skit is Tom Skilling the famed weatherman who was doing radio weather in eighth grade, Madison Wi TV weather at 18, and was on the WGN superstation by the time he was 21. The story is future prices at the Chicago commodities market could be impacted if Skilling was seen going to work with an umbrella. People with outdoor recreation business are talking about class actions against this weather inflation which draws viewership, but as PK said is seldom correct. There has been talk about tortious interference with a outdoor businesses which require true weather forecasts and not rating boosting scare off people from outdoor economic activity because of false weather reports. It has become a huge scam, and as usual PT Barnum got it right.....a sucker is born every day.

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2seaoat wrote:Again to help you Bob, there is no sizeable improvement(50) miles in 24 hours.  Well we all know a Gulf Hurricane will impact the entire 50 mile area to some degree so the margin of error falls within the storm.   The 72 hour forecast appears to compare apples to apples, but again 300 miles three days out is NOT science.....it is dartboard.   Talk to me when they achieve landfall 72 hours out at fifty miles so people are properly warned.....we cannot achieve that model, and I would argue that people need three days to harden homes and get the hell out......24 hours and you might as well use the hurricane planes in 1970 to tell you where the storm will impact.   I would love to play poker with the off the wall mirage of probabilities of weather forecasting versus real probabilities which are beyond our technical and scientific reach at the present, in the meantime Bob is going all in with a pair of jacks on the flop showing a queen, king, and ace......splendid.

Also, to say one model of a hurricane was correct ignores that there are multiple models which are selected by local weather people to help boost ratings where another model shows impact within their market.   darts.

This is all just gibberish.

First of all this...

"The 72 hour forecast appears to compare apples to apples, but again 300 miles three days out is NOT science.....it is dartboard."


Go get your reading glasses and look at the chart again. The 72 hour forecast today has an average error of 100 miles, not 300.

and then more gibberish...

Also, to say one model of a hurricane was correct ignores that there are multiple models which are selected by local weather people to help boost ratings where another model shows impact within their market. darts.


First of all, that chart isn't telling us anything about models or "multiple models or anything of the kind. Where in gods name did you get that from.

That chart is the performance record of the National Hurricane Center's track forecasts since 1970. It clearly indicates that there has been a 400% improvement since the 70's in the NHC's track forecasts.
My god, did those anonymous schools you attended in that unknown place not teach you anything? Any middle schooler should be able to understand that graph.

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2seaoat wrote:Again to help you Bob, there is no sizeable improvement(50) miles in 24 hours.

Jesus Christ,  are you blind?  Or are you retarded?
Here's the chart again...



The chart clearly shows anyone who looks at it (including those who graduate from Escambia County Middle schools)  that there has been a huge improvement since the 70's.
The margin of error in the 70's was 125 miles when the storm was 24 hours out.  Now it's 50.

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2seaoat wrote:

Also, to say one model of a hurricane was correct ignores that there are multiple models which are selected by local weather people to help boost ratings where another model shows impact within their market.   darts.

Seaoat, now you're talking about the ex-disk jockeys who are hired to read the weather reports on local tv.
Do you get your medical advice from tv personalities too? lol

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2seaoat wrote: Well we all know a Gulf Hurricane will impact the entire 50 mile area to some degree.

The center of Ivan came in at Orange Beach. There was very little wind damage in Biloxi 50 miles to the west of the center of Ivan. In fact there was relatively little wind damage in Mobile even closer to the center. I know because I drove over to both places to look at it.

If the center of Ivan had come through Ft. Walton Beach, 50 miles east of where it did come in, Pensacola would have received a whole lot less wind damage than it did.
So 50 miles in the forecast can make a helluva difference. You really just have no clue what you're talking about.

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Jesus Christ, are you blind? Or are you retarded?
Here's the chart again...


I will type particularly slow for our little tommy skillethead. One box on that chart represents fifty miles. At 24 hours, the difference between 1970 and 2015 is approximately One (1) fifty mile block give or take a few miles where the graph is not scaled. A typical destructive Cat 3 hurricane has a fifty mile footprint, so your great statistical improvement in almost fifty years fits into the footprint of a Cat 3 storm.

Now I will type really slow because this may be more difficult for you. I argue that the 2015 sample size is inaccurate to compare to early periods where there was more hurricane activity. The 150 mile range of error covers a three hundred mile range if it goes 150 east off target, or 150 miles west off target. So if you are three days out and are boarding your home up the last three times they told you it was going to hit your area(assuming that local ratings do not show a model which is most harmful to their market) then there is a greater probability the hurricane will miss you and the very projection becomes dangerous when abused for ratings. dart boards and dollars for ads......not science. Our scientific tools are not advanced enough to be truly beneficial three days out, and are about within the margin of error from 1970 24 hours out.

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I'm going to take this to another thread now.

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Bob wrote:
RealLindaL wrote:You wanna scare yourselves, watch this animated graphic of the GFS (allow it to fully load before you click at top to start):

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn


Linda,

Right now that storm is 2000 miles east of Florida.  Trust me,  that's too far away to predict a landfall on the Panhandle.  Take that with a grain of salt.  lol

LOL back atcha, Bob.   You're right, or course, but you're preaching to the choir here.   I think I said somewhere above that the best part about this is that things will change.  That said, though I'm certainly not in a panic or anywhere near it, I do think the significant change in direction from looking like a fish (out to sea) to entering the Gulf, is something we can't afford not to keep a close eye on, via the NHC.   I check their website a couple to multiple times a day in season anyway, depending on what's happening, or even if nothing is.   Comes from being a well-battered Ivan and Dennis survivor.

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The National Hurricane Center has indeed made great strides in improving hurricane landfall predictions -- that's just reality.  For anyone to imply that the improvement is skewed due to a greater or lesser number of total storms in any one or more periods demonstrates humongous arrogance in presuming the scientists who deal with these things at NOAA aren't smart enough to correct for statistical anomalies.  Give me a break.   I'm to believe a Seaoat type before I believe the NHC??  Are you kidding me???

The NHC people are more than humble when discussing their inability to improve intensity forecasting to anywhere near as great a degree as their strides in landfall accuracy, but they're working on it.



Last edited by RealLindaL on 8/20/2016, 12:02 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Typo)

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I have a simple solution Bob. When the next named hurricane is 72 hours from projected landfall. You can bet $500 that you can predict within fifty miles where the storm will hit landfall(we will define the center where the eye crosses land with a 25 mile east, and 25 mile west range. If the exact GPS or geographical marker of your prediction is within that range you can meet my agent who I will give $500, or if you miss you will bring $500 to the Greyhound poker room. If you are arguing fifty miles is really an important range, then you should be willing to bet, but if you are just spouting faux science that we have the tools to predict with certainty we have achieved for fifty some years 24 hours out. To be in compliance with the law, the winner will play three card poker for one hour with the winnings, and then will take any remaining money and donate the same to Animal rescue in the winners name, with any amount over the $500 being retained by the winner. Science is the predictability of an event with certainty.....darts.....well you know.

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ppaca wrote:I like storm2k because it is a gathering of professional meteorologists and lay people that combine and study these and often disagree with the NHC and from what I have seen over the years have a better track record than the NHC.

Even storm2k refers viewers to the National Hurricane Center as the official source.

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RealLindaL wrote:You wanna scare yourselves, watch this animated graphic of the GFS (allow it to fully load before you click at top to start):

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn


Refresh that link and look at how it's all changed in two days. lol

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ppaca wrote:

Here you go Bob, August 31 between here and Destin lol

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118167&start=200

GFS model I believe

And now two days later,  here's how the GFS model track has changed.  This is where the GFS now says it will be on Sept 1st.
The point being, don't pay much attention to the what the track models are saying when a hurricane is still more than a week from landfall.

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I know it's a dart board. 90L coming off the coast of Africa this morning looks more impressive. The one we've been discussing will probably fizzle.

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ppaca wrote:I know it's a dart board. 90L coming off the coast of Africa this morning looks more impressive.

We're right now in the peak of the season, from mid August to mid September.
This is when all three category 5 hurricanes which have struck the U.S., made their landfalls.
Camille on August 18th, Andrew on August 24th, and the 1935 Florida Keys Hurricane on Sept 2nd.

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Also,  the most powerful hurricanes don't have to be these Cape Verde storms which take weeks to get to the U.S.

Camille,  with the most powerful winds ever recorded in a U.S. landfalling hurricane,  was formed only 3 days before it struck Mississippi...

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Camille, with the most powerful winds ever recorded in a U.S. landfalling hurricane, was formed only 3 days before it struck Mississippi...

Thank you Bob for making my argument. Poor Linda and her belief in the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus........what will she do? 72 hours out a period which allows people to board up and prepare, and nothing from all that good science. Too funny. The simple truth is that absent the last 24 hours which all should agree is not enough time for mass evacuation, the science is woefully inadequate and inaccurate.

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2seaoat wrote:Camille,  with the most powerful winds ever recorded in a U.S. landfalling hurricane,  was formed only 3 days before it struck Mississippi...

Thank you Bob for making my argument.  Poor Linda and her belief in the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus........what will she do?   72 hours out a period which allows people to board up and prepare, and nothing from all that good science.   Too funny.   The simple truth is that absent the last 24 hours which all should agree is not enough time for mass evacuation, the science is woefully inadequate and inaccurate.  

As of right now,  when a hurricane is 72 hours from landfall,  the NHC's forecasters can predict within 100 miles where the center of circulation will cross land.
In the 1970's,  that distance was 400 miles.

In the 1970's,  we used a pay telephone to communicate with others.
Today we have a phone in our pocket.

The dude abides and technology advances.  I'll have to say you truly are a genius for having discovered that fact. No one has ever thought of it before. I'm going to nominate you for a Nobel Prize.  lol

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Bob, thank you for your sane and factual response to Mr. Know-it-All, whose utter ignorance is showing as it so often does these days.  

We have evacuated for four storms starting with Ivan, and in each and every case have had plenty of advance notice, thanks to the vastly improved landfall predictions of the NHC, along with the knowledge and foresight of local leaders who don't simply look at a dot on the map but on the breadth of potential impacts, especially of surge (which the NHC is also now predicting via a new product introduced last year).

(Once in a while, such as in the case of 2012's Hurricane  Isaac, the local guys can get ahead of the predictions, and, being overly cautious, can cause an entirely unnecessary evacuation.  Despite some griping at the time, we'd rather have it that way than the reverse.)

Seaoat's dire "dartboard" warnings, aside from demonstrating hard-headed refusal to recognize scientific progress, also belie his unstated desire -- I'm willing to bet on it -- that he would love nothing more than for beach dwellers to suffer great losses.  He has been a stereotypical anti-beach-people person ever since he got religion and sold his own Navarre Beach holdings, which he's admitted on more than one occasion were only acquired for profit.  

So yeah, let's bash "poor Linda" who bought here, not for profit, but to make her home in fulfillment of a life-long dream after 30 years of hard work, sacrifice and financial risk-taking -- and who, contrary to Seaoat's "Easter Bunny and Santa Claus"-type insults, has always  had her eyes wide open as to storm threats, and who, with the help of the NHC, can take care of herself just fine and dandy, thank you very much, without any gratuitous, fear-mongering input from Mr. Know-it-All who very obviously knows nothing.

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