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The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

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2seaoat wrote:They do not have a clue.....it is throwing darts.....

The National Hurricane Center certainly does "have a clue" as far as direction.   Their 8 p.m. Tropical Weather Discussion says,

"Over the next 24 hours the trough over
the northeastern Gulf is forecast to drift northward with
enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity expected to continue
over the northeastern Gulf through at least Tuesday."

(And the disturbance is now given a 0% chance of tropical development, btw, very warm water notwithstanding.)

No, I am the one without a clue as to how this disturbance is supposed to cause westerly extension of an area of very heavy rain, locally forecast to continue through at least SATURDAY. even though the trough is forecast to drift northward.  Maybe it's because I don't understand the extent/location of the trough, only of the very loosely defined center of circulation, which is now shown as being inland over northeast Florida, probably explaining why there is no longer any chance of its spinning up into a tropical cyclone.

Anyway, that's why I've asked more knowledgeable weather geeks to explain, if they can.  We'll see what they say.   Bottom line, of course, is what we will see out the window during the week ahead.

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For years, that forum troll has been preaching that weather forecasting is no different than "throwing darts at a donkey board", Linda. The troll is like a broken record. Every time someone wants to discuss weather events he starts blathering about the "donkey" again. Just ignore it. lol

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Bob wrote:For years,  that forum troll has been preaching that weather forecasting is no different than "throwing darts at a donkey board",  Linda.  The troll is like a broken record.  Every time someone wants to discuss weather events he starts blathering about the "donkey" again.  Just ignore it.  lol

OK, Bob, will do, and thanks for the heads up.  I wasn't familiar with that particular peculiarity of his.  

NOAA's National Hurricane Center has made significant strides in forecasting just about everything except cyclone intensity in the past few years.  No throwing darts involved.   (Some are obviously ignorant of this fact.)

I do find it interesting that so far no one on the Hurricane City message board -- which, as you know, is heavily populated with weather geeks, some more knowledgeable than others -- has answered my question about how the predicted heavy Gulf Coast rains relate to the system that moved off to the north and east over the weekend.  But that weather system, which pretty much disappeared over northeast Florida during the weekend, is no longer even a yellow "X" on the disturbance map.  

As of this morning's Tropical Weather Discussion, this was said about the Gulf:

"A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across south Florida to northeast Texas. A low to mid level trough will persist across the north/central or northeast Gulf through midweek. The weak surface ridge will
meander from south Florida to northeast Texas through midweek."

So a lot of meandering of troughs and ridges going on to cause the rain events, but we can definitely forget the system they were watching closely for possible tropical development last week.

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The rain has started in the breeze.

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Yeah, we had a brief drizzle on the beach as well, but things are clearing up -- for now. Much more to come, although tonight's rain looks spotty at best. Sounds right now as if Wed./Thurs. will be the worst.

I see on PNJ.com that Ft. Pickens is being evacuated and the road to the fort will be closed at 10 p.m. tonight.

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[url=http://www.servimg.com/view/17590589/589][/url


Navarre Beach last night.

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RealLindaL wrote:Yeah, we had a brief drizzle on the beach as well, but things are clearing up -- for now.  Much more to come, although tonight's rain looks spotty at best.  Sounds right now as if Wed./Thurs. will be the worst.  

I see on PNJ.com that Ft. Pickens is being evacuated and the road to the fort will be closed at 10 p.m. tonight.  

We went through the gate yesterday, it was unattended and a sign saying to pass through, got a quarter of a mile and the road was flooded.

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Any kind of storm will take out Fort Pickens road, and the national seashore road between Navarre and PB is just waiting to be closed......for good. It is a ribbon of petroleum based product which has not base, no curbing to not allow the north side of the road to collapse with a surge, and there are growing numbers of people who have verbalized that at some point, these roads are not going to keep being rebuilt. Again, the weather folks five or six days ago were clueless.

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That section of Pickens Rd is a sliver of what it used to be.

PkrBum wrote:That section of Pickens Rd is a sliver of what it used to be.

Correct

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There used to huge dunes between Navarre and PB, and actually some huge dunes in Navarre......they are all choked off by the buildings as the entire Santa Rosa Island becomes more and more fragile as a small storm can disrupt traffic and cause damage to the roads. At this point, it is a ticking time bomb.

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The first two Cape Verde storms of the season...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde_hurricane

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you beat me to it:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118167

oats is getting the dart board out.

Right now a similar Ivan track.

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ppaca wrote:

oats is getting the dart board out.


At this point,  neither the dart board nor forecasting knows if or when it might make landfall in the U.S.
This far out,  the margin of error for either dart throwing or forecasting is about 2000 miles.  lol

Even when hurricanes are only 24 hours from landfall,  the current margin of error in the forecast is 52 miles.  And 52 miles is a lot. If the center of Ivan had come on shore 52 miles east of where it did,  Pensacola would not have received the knockout blow we did.

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Here's what I think is the good news.  The last year a hurricane struck Florida was 2005,  eleven years ago.   That was the year Hurricane Dennis hit us.  
If a hurricane hits Florida this year,  I think it's a long shot it will hit the same place.
Of course my feeling on this is about as scientific as dart throwing.  lol

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Although model runs are notably unreliable prior to the formation of a center of circulation, the most recent runs for most models show this storm (currently Invest 99L) recurving up the east coast or out to sea after a brush with the islands.

I say "most models," but the latest (12z) run of the GFS (a.k.a. the "American Model"), rather disturbingly, brings the storm right to our doorstep on the north central Gulf Coast.  

Could completely change with the next and future runs, though.   We need to wait for more accurate runs after location of the CC.

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Could completely change with the next and future runs, though.

Exactly! People have died with the repeated assumption that hurricane forecasting is anything but dartboards as Bob has finally admitted the 52 mile variance the day before.........I personally know people in Biloxi who left their homes because of their belief that forecasting was pretty accurate on hurricanes and after two false alarms prior to Katrina, they chose to stay until it was two late. All I ask is for some honesty and probabilities which can be time tested and hold people responsible for negligent forecasts.

I have written letters to TV station talking heads who pretend to be schooled in weather, and get ratings by over stating risks which brings viewers to websites and television. When commercials get priced higher with an advancing storm system and people profit from overstating risks, the flip side of that is that people ignore real threats which have nothing to do with drumming up business. I believe these people who profit on fear should be held civilly liable for intentional overstating specific risks where they drum up viewership for a week prior to actually knowing with any scientific certainty where a hurricane will reach land. This should not be about profit.

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RealLindaL wrote:Although model runs are notably unreliable prior to the formation of a center of circulation, the most recent runs for most models show this storm (currently Invest 99L) recurving up the east coast or out to sea after a brush with the islands.

I say "most models," but the latest (12z) run of the GFS (a.k.a. the "American Model"), rather disturbingly, brings the storm right to our doorstep on the north central Gulf Coast.  

Could completely change with the next and future runs, though.   We need to wait for more accurate runs after location of the CC.

Isn't that Fiona your speaking of?

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Bob wrote:
ppaca wrote:

oats is getting the dart board out.


At this point,  neither the dart board nor forecasting knows if or when it might make landfall in the U.S.
This far out,  the margin of error for either dart throwing or forecasting is about 2000 miles.  lol

Even when hurricanes are only 24 hours from landfall,  the current margin of error in the forecast is 52 miles.  And 52 miles is a lot. If the center of Ivan had come on shore 52 miles east of where it did,  Pensacola would not have received the knockout blow we did.


Here you go Bob, August 31 between here and Destin lol

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118167&start=200

GFS model I believe

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ppaca wrote:

Here you go Bob, August 31 between here and Destin lol

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118167&start=200

GFS model I believe

That seems to be predicting that the storm will be moving so painfully slowly that it will be over the Gulf for the next 10 days.  
Or is there something about that I'm missing?

If that's true, a tropical cyclone staying over the warm Gulf water for 10 days potentially could grow into a monster.  We better pray there's some weather systems moving into the Gulf that will knock it out before that. Or steer it away from us.

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Or steer it away from us.

Yep, at least your values are consistent. La gets hit with monster Hurricane while still recovering from record rain.......whew.....glad it was steered away from us.

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ppaca wrote:
RealLindaL wrote:Although model runs are notably unreliable prior to the formation of a center of circulation, the most recent runs for most models show this storm (currently Invest 99L) recurving up the east coast or out to sea after a brush with the islands.

I say "most models," but the latest (12z) run of the GFS (a.k.a. the "American Model"), rather disturbingly, brings the storm right to our doorstep on the north central Gulf Coast.  

Could completely change with the next and future runs, though.   We need to wait for more accurate runs after location of the CC.

Isn't that Fiona your speaking of?

No, ppaca. Prior to the 12z runs today, most models as to 99L gave it a brush past the Lesser Antilles and then with a gentle recurve basically following the eastern coastline but not reaching the U.S..

Now, however, with the 12z runs, things have changed dramatically, most models following closer to the GFS 12z run mentioned above, and bringing the storm into the Gulf.

The best part about this is, things always change.

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You wanna scare yourselves, watch this animated graphic of the GFS (allow it to fully load before you click at top to start):

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn

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2seaoat wrote:I have written letters to TV station talking heads who pretend to be schooled in weather, and get ratings by over stating risks which brings viewers to websites and television.   When commercials get priced higher with an advancing storm system and people profit from overstating risks, the flip side of that is that people ignore real threats which have nothing to do with drumming up business.  I believe these people who profit on fear should be held civilly liable for intentional overstating specific risks where they drum up viewership for a week prior to actually knowing with any scientific certainty where a hurricane will reach land.   This should not be about profit.

Agree in principle but of course the civil liability thing will never happen.

At our house, the one and only source worth listening to is the National Hurricane Center -- and of course even they are not perfect.  But all others are mere pretenders.

I like Kathryn Daniel at WEAR-TV but she is one of the WORST for hyping storms.   She'll love this one.

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RealLindaL wrote:You wanna scare yourselves, watch this animated graphic of the GFS (allow it to fully load before you click at top to start):

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn


Linda,

Right now that storm is 2000 miles east of Florida.  Trust me,  that's too far away to predict a landfall on the Panhandle.  Take that with a grain of salt.  lol

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