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The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

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Joanimaroni wrote:Hoping Markle is ok....

My guess is he's lost power, Joani. I say that because the last report I heard was 180,000 without power.

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Earlier in the thread I said the peak of the hurricqne season is the end of August/beginning of Septermber.  But I need to correct that,  Just found this...

"September 10 marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Based on data gathered since 1851, it’s been more likely for a hurricane [or tropical storm] to be active on this date than on any other in the entire season — from June 1 to November 30."

http://wxshift.com/news/graphics/hurricane-season

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Just going through some different threads on storm2k here is global models

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117742&start=1420

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ppaca wrote:Just going through some different threads on storm2k here is global models

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117742&start=1420

Did you happen to notice post over there on one of the 99L threads when the someone talked about the $210,000 and the ECMWF? He either said that's how much it cost to do each model run, or he said that's what they charge their institutional buyers to receive it.

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Bob wrote:Earlier in the thread I said the peak of the hurricqne season is the end of August/beginning of Septermber.  But I need to correct that,  Just found this...

"September 10 marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Based on data gathered since 1851, it’s been more likely for a hurricane [or tropical storm] to be active on this date than on any other in the entire season — from June 1 to November 30."

http://wxshift.com/news/graphics/hurricane-season

Yep.  September 10 is the climatological peak.  I always keep this graphic on hand to email potential family visitors, giving them due notice when they even think about coming around that time.   But anyway, I figured you were close enough. lol

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Bob wrote:
ppaca wrote:Just going through some different threads on storm2k here is global models

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117742&start=1420

Did you happen to notice post over there on one of the 99L threads when the someone talked about the $210,000 and the ECMWF?  He either said that's how much it cost to do each model run,  or he said that's what they charge their institutional buyers to receive it.

No I didn't see that. I know it costs a small fortune to keep 2k running and it's all from the owner's and donations from the poster's. This is the first year I have started following again, I believe since Ivan. My wife has been following for years and I haven't paid much attention up until now.

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Unsure about the location of the center of circulation and pressure:

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

... A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
extending from 20N48W to a 1009 mb low near 14N47W to 07N49W,
moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a moderately
moist environment with upper-level diffluence supporting scattered
moderate convection from 13N-18N between 45W-56W. This wave is
also generating a broad area of fresh to strong easterly winds
across the northern portion of it. ...

That differs quite a bit from the info shown in the graphic issued at 2:00 AM EDT and posted by GCANE, where the location is near 13N 49W and the MSLP (mean sea level pressure) is 1004.2 hPa. (According to my info, hPa [hectopascals] are equivalent to millibars.)

GCANE wrote:
Latest low-level wind analysis

http://imageshack.com/a/img924/1870/yAGtw5.gif

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http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118231&start=140

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ppaca wrote:Unsure about the location of the center of circulation and pressure:

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

... A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic

I don't think a wave has a center of circulation.

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They don't and I just copied and pasted that whole quote.

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ppaca wrote:They don't and I just copied and pasted that whole quote.

Hokay.

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Bob wrote:
Joanimaroni wrote:Hoping Markle is ok....

My guess is he's lost power,  Joani.  I say that because the last report I heard was 180,000 without power.

I guess no big generator. Hope all's well Markle... check in soon.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/92L_tracks_latest.png

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Here's the good news.  
All the models have this going west into Mexico in 5 or 6 days.  
And the NHS has the chance for development up through 5 days at only 30%.

Something weird is going on when two back to back Cape Verde storms come low the whole way across Atlantic Basin and don't develop.
But I'll take it.

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Bob wrote:Here's the good news.  
All the models have this going west into Mexico in 5 or 6 days.  
And the NHS has the chance for development up through 5 days at only 30%.

Something weird is going on when two back to back Cape Verde storms come low the whole way across Atlantic Basin and don't develop.
But I'll take it.

Damn right we'll take it, Bob.

OK, time to post the following link I referred to in passing some time back in this thread, and may've posted here in the past as I have several times on CaneTalk.  It's a 2007 NOAA news article reporting on a study that indicates climate change may actually be an inhibiting. rather than enhancing, factor, in tropical cyclone development.  I found it intriguing at the time and still do.

EVEN IF the forum reader is convinced that we are simply in a cycle phase and that nothing is due to mankind's input, this theory could still hold up, IMHO:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2840.htm

Food for thought if nothing else.  As a layperson, I think it makes a lot of sense.

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That might actually mean that global warming would be beneficial for most of us up here. But I'm afraid you'd need to be off the beach to take advantage of it.

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I felt like I was in hurricane weather on the way back from Bealls about 30 minutes ago, man it rained so hard you could not see what was in front of you.

My wife pointed something out on national radar a minute ago the tail of Hermine stretches all the way down and back this way.

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Bob wrote:That might actually mean that global warming would be beneficial for most of us up here.  But I'm afraid you'd need to be off the beach to take advantage of it.

Did you look at all the spaghetti models? I hope it goes into Mexico but we all know it can do whatever it wants lol.

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ppaca wrote:
Bob wrote:That might actually mean that global warming would be beneficial for most of us up here.  But I'm afraid you'd need to be off the beach to take advantage of it.

Did you look at all the spaghetti models? I hope it goes into Mexico but we all know it can do whatever it wants lol.

If we go all the way to 10 days from now,  the Euro has it going into TX..

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My guess is he's lost power,

Mr. Markle's lights have been out for a year.


My dart projection........Texas

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correction to my last post, that was the gringo model, not the euro.

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Model I saw earlier was TX-LA border.

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Bob wrote:That might actually mean that global warming would be beneficial for most of us up here.  But I'm afraid you'd need to be off the beach to take advantage of it.

Not I. I won't live long enough to see the island inundated by the rising sea level.

No, if there are fewer hurricanes during whatever time I have left here, I will most definitely take advantage of it.

Or have I misunderstood you, as I often do? lol

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2seaoat wrote:My guess is he's lost power,

Mr. Markle's lights have been out for a year.


My dart projection........Texas

At least a year -- maybe longer.  Too funny.

As for Texas, throw darts as ye may, but we all know it's far too soon to say.

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