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Pensacola Discussion Forum » Politics » This is shaping up to be a Trump vs Biden election

This is shaping up to be a Trump vs Biden election

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Floridatexan
2seaoat
Sal
Hospital Bob
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Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

That is if Trump doesn't shoot himself in the mouth before it gets to the end.

Trump is now widening his lead in all the early primaries...

Here's the latest CBS poll on the republican side...

This is shaping up to be a Trump vs Biden election Xbs_po13

As you you can see, Trump has appeal even beyond Iowa and New Hampshire because it's a rout for him in the first southern poll as well.

Now we go to the democrat side...

This is shaping up to be a Trump vs Biden election Xbs_po12

As you can see there, while Sanders is widening his lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he starts to slip when he gets to the south.

My thinking is that, because of this, Biden will probably enter the race. And if that happens he'll take voters away from both Clinton and Sanders.

So we could end up seeing a race between the total "outsider" and the total "insider".

BUT, if Biden stays out of the race, all bets are off on the democrat side.



Sal

Sal

Sanders is pulling away in New Hampshire and Iowa.

If he wins those contests resoundingly, it'll be interesting to see what kind of momentum he brings to places like South Carolina.

He certainly drew a large and raucous crowd in Greensboro, NC last night.

Winning is the best way to convince doubters that you're a viable candidate.

Sanders vs Trump would be interesting.

Substance vs Bluster for all the marbles.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Valid point and anything is possible in the weirdest election of our lifetimes, Sal.

But at this point in time, I just don't see this country (as a whole) moving left and going from liberal to socialist. I think it's more likely that it will be moving right and going from liberal to more moderate.

2seaoat



There is nothin g weird about the current candidates surge. When America had a vibrant middle class there was moderation in both parties as both appealed to the middle class for survival. Since Reaganomics destroyed the middle class combined with changing comparative economics in world trade, the American middle class is inconsequential.

Now conservatives have become reactionary and liberals have become radicals and the moderate middle of both parties has been marginalized as not being a real republican or a real democrat. Donald Trump represents the fantasy of greatness and bringing back Mayberry which appeals to the frustrated and scared Americans, and Bernie represents the fantasy of equality bringing back post WWII prosperity with strong unions and fair wages for Americans.

The reality is that this dichotomy is not healthy but hardly weird. It really was the exact same story in the 2012 election with Romney the silver spooned against the little guys candidate President Obama. If anyone thinks either one of these candidates cannot win the election, they are wrong.

Sal

Sal

This nation has drifted so far to the right and into the pockets of the moneyed interests over the past 40 years, it has taken a man calling himself a "democratic socialist" to put forward standard populist positions.

And in the other corner, you find a candidate finding traction with uneducated and disgruntled working class voters by spewing xenophobia and intolerance and claiming he can return white privilege.

But, neither of those is the weirdest thing about this election.

The weirdest thing is that the odds-on favorite has been completely ratfucked by a manufactured scandal, and the press has not only not had the journalistic integrity to explain what is happening, they have actively aided and abetted in the ratfucking.

2seaoat



If anybody thinks a Clinton is out of the race, they forget what happened to Bill in the polls and how he rebounded from the dead.....Hillary is a vampire, and the email show trials is no wooden stake.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:There is nothin g weird about the current candidates surge.  When America had a vibrant middle class there was moderation in both parties as both appealed to the middle class for survival.  Since Reaganomics destroyed the middle class combined with changing comparative economics in world trade, the American middle class is inconsequential.  

Now conservatives have become reactionary and liberals have become radicals and the moderate middle of both parties has been marginalized as not being a real republican or a real democrat.  Donald Trump represents the fantasy of greatness and bringing back Mayberry which appeals to the frustrated and scared Americans, and Bernie represents the fantasy of equality bringing back post WWII prosperity with strong unions and fair wages for Americans.

The reality is that this dichotomy is not healthy but hardly weird.  It really was the exact same story in the 2012 election with Romney the silver spooned against the little guys candidate President Obama.  If anyone thinks either one of these candidates cannot win the election, they are wrong.

No,  this election is fully predictable and the same election as the last one ONLY in your mind.  Every other witness to it in America,  including ALL of the professional politic commentators,  ALL of the politicians,  and everyone else is saying "man,  this election is so unpredictable and so weird".
It's like when you were the ONLY person in the entire country who was convinced George Zimmerman was found guilty of manslaughter in that trial because of some weird twisted logic you used that no one else comprehends,  including legal professionals.  lol

And,  no,  Romney and Trump aren't the same fucking thing.  Romney never proposed to raise taxes on Wall Street types (like himself) and all other multi-millionaires.  Trump has done that and done it bluntly.

And you totally misread what Trump's real appeal is because it's not that or illegal immigration or being "out-negotiated" by China or any other issue Trump has raised.

To explain Trump's actual appeal to the electorate,  I only have to refer to Frank Luntz.

When someone is talking,  the Luntz graph is moving up and down on every fucking word.  And Luntz, and Hannity or O'Reilly or whoever else is gushing over Luntz and his graph, are all obsessing on that.

That is a metaphor now for our whole political system.  When you judge a person by having people watch them with buttons in their hands,  and the people are pushing the buttons to respond to every word,  it's very similiar to animals pushing buttons to receive food.
Every single fucking word now has to be evaluated.  And if one word is out of place,  those button pushers are moving the graph and the television audience is all wired into that.

THAT is the definition of "correctness", political or otherwise.  We used to apply the term "litmus test" to a candidate's whole persona or whole worldview or his take on a given issue.  Now in the Luntz era,   we're applying a fucking litmus test to every word he or she utters.

And Trump is the first individual to come along and challenge that in a big way.  
That's his appeal.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

That Luntz focus group graph is truly bizarre in another way as well.

If you've ever seen that shtick performed,  you will notice that there's a human delay between the time the person says something and the time it takes the button pushers to respond.
So the effect of it is like watching one of those Japanese Godzilla movies with the lip sync issue.
Just like in those movies when the person says something,  we don't hear it until that same person has gone on to speak another sentence.  Just like when someone says something to Luntz,  the button pushers and the graph don't respond until that same person is saying the next sentence.
It's just so bizarre.

Frank Luntz and his focus groups and moving graph are the REAL "1984" come to life. It didn't turn out to be quite like Orwell imagined.

2seaoat



Bob,

The political pundits do not remember the reaction to Ronald Reagan. He was never predicted to become President, and in the early days he was talked about exactly like they are talking about Trump. If people do not learn history, and blame it on Mr. Greenjeans for their short comings, it is not my fault that I do read and understand history.......in ninth grade I won the Palmer award which was competition on weekly readers on current events where students were tested on their knowledge of world leaders and events........you were at the beach.....I was reading five newspapers a day.......you call this election weird, and I call it as a very similar election cycle as the 2012 election cycle where the Republicans elected a rich guy, and the Democrats elected the little guy.....pick up some books and read.....and if you are impressed with newsreaders who I would blow away in real time talking about specifics and policy, then you are what you made yourself, and I am what I made myself......informed.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:Bob,

The political pundits do not remember the reaction to Ronald Reagan.  He was never predicted to become President, and in the early days he was talked about exactly like they are talking about Trump.   If people do not learn history, and blame it on Mr. Greenjeans for their short comings, it is not my fault that I do read and understand history.......in ninth grade I won the Palmer award which was competition on weekly readers on current events where students were tested on their knowledge of world leaders and events........you were at the beach.....I was reading five newspapers a day.......you call this election weird, and I call it as a very similar election cycle as the 2012 election cycle where the Republicans elected a rich guy, and the Democrats elected the little guy.....pick up some books and read.....and if you are impressed with newsreaders who I would blow away in real time talking about specifics and policy, then you are what you made yourself, and I am what I made myself......informed.

This is always what happens,  seaoat.  Never fails.

1. You see something different than everyone else sees.
2. Then I call you on that.  
3. And then you respond by telling me it's all about MY illiteracy and MY ignorance.

But don't you see the problem with that, son?
Because you just contradicted yourself.  Firstly you said the problem was with all the political pundits.
Then you ended your post by singling out me.

If I don't see Trump being Reagan,  it's not just because of my own personal illiteracy and ignorance.  It's because of the same illiteracy and ignorance on the part of EVERYONE ELSE EXCEPT YOU. Because no one except you is witnessing this the way you are.
You are the hunchback in this deal,  seaoat.  Not I.  lol

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Tell you what,  seaoat.  I'll be fair about this.

You show me when Ronald Reagan said a Vietnam POW and war hero was not a hero because Ronald Reagan only saw the ones who didn't get captured as heroes;  you show me any example of that and you'll make me a believer. lol

The reason Reagan didn't say anything like that is because Reagan was programmed what to say like all the rest.
Trump is not Reagan and not like anything you or I have ever seen before.

Floridatexan

Floridatexan


Wrong, I've seen blowhard braggart hypocrites before...and I left out a few more fitting adjectives. The sad part is you can't seem to see beneath the veneer, even though it's really thin. He is appealing to some, but for all the wrong reasons. If you started digging into his "deals", you'd literally find yourself in China...or Bangladesh...or Mexico. His "deals" have always been good deals for him...except when they weren't. He uses his name as a brand, which he exploits to the hilt. He sues anyone who gets in his way, and he shamelessly admits to a myriad of undesirable traits for the office of President. He's the empty suit of empty suits.

And Biden...has he even entered the race? I believe he's in mourning for his son. I don't think he has it in him to mount a campaign at this time. And why did you discount Bernie Sanders? There's no one with his populist appeal. His message is clear...it's what people want to hear...and it has been consistent.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Floridatexan wrote:
The sad part is you can't seem to see beneath the veneer, even though it's really thin.  He is appealing to some, but for all the wrong reasons.

You make it sound like it's not even actual veneer.  More like vinyl shelf paper designed to look like actual wood veneer.  lol

Whatever it is,  to characterize it as appealing only to "some",  would be like saying McDonalds hamburgers only appeal to "some" too when McDonalds hamburgers are selling better than any other single restaurant product in the world.

You have the same problem seaoat has in one regard,  Tex.  Your partisanship and bias so clouds your thinking that you aren't even capable of making an objective observation.  Not any different than Markle or obamasucks. I hate to be so blunt about it,  but that just sums your posts up.

2seaoat



"James Bond is a man of honor, a symbol of real value to the free world."

2seaoat



you aren't even capable of making an objective observation.


clown

boards of FL

boards of FL

Hilary Clinton will defeat Jeb Bush in the general election. This current GOP primary is intentionally clouded and noisy so that Jeb can fly under the radar and appear less crazy and perhaps smarter than he otherwise would in a less crowded field.


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I approve this message.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

boards of FL wrote:Hilary Clinton will defeat Jeb Bush in the general election.  This current GOP primary is intentionally clouded and noisy so that Jeb can fly under the radar and appear less crazy and perhaps smarter than he otherwise would in a less crowded field.  

Well he better start getting on the radar quick.  Right now it's 29% Trump to 3% Bush in Iowa,  40% Trump to 6% Bush in New Hampshire,  and 36% Trump to 5% Bush in South Carolina.   And not only that,  but the trend has been for Trump to keep going up and Bush to keep going down.  

Slim Pickens kept flying under the radar in Dr. Strangelove too.  But if you'll remember,  the result was Pickens ended up heading toward the ground atop a hydrogen bomb and they're still trying to find pieces of him. And that's even though Pickens' character was named "Major King Kong". And no matter how hard I try, I cannot envision Dubya's brother being King Kong. lol

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

In fact, that's why Bush will never be the nominee. The country just does not want another Bush to be the high monkety muck. Two was one too many.

Markle

Markle

boards of FL wrote:Hilary Clinton will defeat Jeb Bush in the general election.  This current GOP primary is intentionally clouded and noisy so that Jeb can fly under the radar and appear less crazy and perhaps smarter than he otherwise would in a less crowded field.  

This is shaping up to be a Trump vs Biden election LOL_zpsrc5py0ql

ZVUGKTUBM

ZVUGKTUBM

boards of FL wrote:Hilary Clinton will defeat Jeb Bush in the general election.  This current GOP primary is intentionally clouded and noisy so that Jeb can fly under the radar and appear less crazy and perhaps smarter than he otherwise would in a less crowded field.  

Can you imagine the seizures that posters Markle and Obamasucks would experience were she to become the next President? They will be far worse than we've ever seen under Obama.....

http://www.best-electric-barbecue-grills.com

Markle

Markle

ZVUGKTUBM wrote:
boards of FL wrote:Hilary Clinton will defeat Jeb Bush in the general election.  This current GOP primary is intentionally clouded and noisy so that Jeb can fly under the radar and appear less crazy and perhaps smarter than he otherwise would in a less crowded field.  

Can you imagine the seizures that posters Markle and Obamasucks would experience were she to become the next President? They will be far worse than we've ever seen under Obama.....

ANYONE would be an improvement over semi-retired President Obama.

Hillary Clinton doesn't have a prayer.

REALLY hard for a candidate to win much of anything when the first three words voters think of when they hear her name are:

A new poll from Quinnipiac University has some concerning answers about what voters think of 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

When prompted with the opened-ended question of “what is the first word that comes to mind when you think of Hillary Clinton?” respondents answered:
•Liar (178 times)
•Dishonest (123 times)
•Untrustworthy (93 times)

http://www.ijreview.com/2015/08/404783-voters-say-first-word-comes-mind-hearing-hillary-clinton-answers-shocking/

That's quite a platform!

Floridatexan

Floridatexan

Bob wrote:
Floridatexan wrote:
The sad part is you can't seem to see beneath the veneer, even though it's really thin.  He is appealing to some, but for all the wrong reasons.

You make it sound like it's not even actual veneer.  More like vinyl shelf paper designed to look like actual wood veneer.  lol

Whatever it is,  to characterize it as appealing only to "some",  would be like saying McDonalds hamburgers only appeal to "some" too when McDonalds hamburgers are selling better than any other single restaurant product in the world.

You have the same problem seaoat has in one regard,  Tex.  Your partisanship and bias so clouds your thinking that you aren't even capable of making an objective observation.  Not any different than Markle or obamasucks.  I hate to be so blunt about it,  but that just sums your posts up.

Eff off. You have no idea what you're talking about. My posts are consistent with my beliefs. When have you ever known me to lie? Or even to get behind something or someone I don't believe in? Answer both those questions, and don't insult my intelligence. You, on the other hand, are all over the map. Did you not vote for Romney in the last election? Hell would freeze over before I would vote for someone like Romney, or Trump, and you already know how I feel about the Bush crime family.

Sal

Sal

Floridatexan wrote:Did you not vote for Romney in the last election?

Yes, ...

... yes, he did.

Nuff said.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Floridatexan wrote:
Bob wrote:
Floridatexan wrote:
The sad part is you can't seem to see beneath the veneer, even though it's really thin.  He is appealing to some, but for all the wrong reasons.

You make it sound like it's not even actual veneer.  More like vinyl shelf paper designed to look like actual wood veneer.  lol

Whatever it is,  to characterize it as appealing only to "some",  would be like saying McDonalds hamburgers only appeal to "some" too when McDonalds hamburgers are selling better than any other single restaurant product in the world.

You have the same problem seaoat has in one regard,  Tex.  Your partisanship and bias so clouds your thinking that you aren't even capable of making an objective observation.  Not any different than Markle or obamasucks.  I hate to be so blunt about it,  but that just sums your posts up.

Eff off.  You have no idea what you're talking about.  My posts are consistent with my beliefs.  When have you ever known me to lie?  Or even to get behind something or someone I don't believe in?  Answer both those questions, and don't insult my intelligence.  You, on the other hand, are all over the map.  Did you not vote for Romney in the last election?  Hell would freeze over before I would vote for someone like Romney, or Trump, and you already know how I feel about the Bush crime family.

Go back and read the post again. I'm not questioning your truthfulness, or questioning that you sincerely believe what you write. I'm just questioning your fair-mindedness. And on that count, I don't see what you write as being any much different than what markle or obamasucks write.

I voted against Obama. Just like I voted against McCain. And before that I voted against Bush trying to get a second term. And before that I voted against Gore. I don't remember the last time I voted FOR anyone.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

But this time I may indeed vote FOR Trump. Why? Because right now I can't really see how anybody can fuck up this country's government and politics worse than the career politicians have done. So I'm wishing and hoping this pied piper can deliver. Probably the same as many other voters are thinking.
I KNOW I can't stomach voting for a continuation of the status quo and the horseshit that's brought with it. So I'm willing to bet on a longshot that this character might be more than just a blowhard.
You call it sitting on the fence. I call it taking a risk.


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