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Pensacola Discussion Forum » General Discussion » The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

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Hallmarkgard
dumpcare
Sal
RealLindaL
2seaoat
Hospital Bob
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Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

ppaca wrote:Bob you think the Canadian model has anything to it?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=09L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082812&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=114

In this case I'm going to put all my faith in the gringo model and the limey model and ignore the canuck model.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:I'm not about to post to that board. If you can't talk like an expert they belittle you. Lol


Now when has that stopped you?

I never challenge the experts. I only challenge you. lol

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Here's the deal,  2seaoat.

What you need to do is look at the spot on this map which says 8PM monday.
If this track forecast pans out,  then the storm will then be 3 days from landfall.
And what we want to see then is whether or not the forecast is within 115 miles of the center of landfall.  

But keep in mind that IF this does indicate where the storm will go,  then the "euro model" predicted that long before the 72 hour point.  It will have predicted all these movements,  the westerly path followed by the curve back to the northeast.
Any time you want to put your dart board and darts up against that,  I'll gladly make that wager with you.


The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 13 Latest10

2seaoat



The storm will hit Texas.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:The storm will hit Texas.

Okay, I'll make a wager with you the storm hits Florida and not Texas.

2seaoat



We will make that bet when the storm is 72 hours from the Texas coast. A little bit early Bob.......I would feel terrible if my dart was right and I did not give you a chance. Plus.....you are playing with a Poker player. We will make the bet on Wed. morning.

RealLindaL



2seaoat wrote:We will make that bet when the storm is 72 hours from the Texas coast.  A little bit early Bob.......I would feel terrible if my dart was right and I did not give you a chance.  Plus.....you are playing with a Poker player.  We will make the bet on Wed. morning.

And you will lose -- and unless you're not paying attention you know perfectly well you will, so obviously you're pulling Bob's chain again.

2seaoat



And you will lose -- and unless you're not paying attention you know perfectly well you will, so obviously you're pulling Bob's chain again.

Now you have gone and hurt my feelings......you lumped me in with the hurricane experts who for the last week have fed the frenzy of hype of potential Cat 4 hurricanes heading right for Pensacola.......Thankfully only Joani's model and my prediction of Texas have a bit of validity and we do what the sign says on Bob's back.......pull my chain.

dumpcare



It doesn't look very good this morning, hell may just fizzle out or keep going SW, it's current track. Joani's map is the best right now.

Guest


Guest

It may not sound nice... but I always hope the storms hit the everglades or the Mississippi Delta.

Those low marsh areas are the best hurricane killers.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:We will make that bet when the storm is 72 hours from the Texas coast.  A little bit early Bob.......I would feel terrible if my dart was right and I did not give you a chance.  Plus.....you are playing with a Poker player.  We will make the bet on Wed. morning.

That makes about as much sense as you picking Notre Dame to win in the next Alabama vs Auburn game.  lol

2seaoat



That makes about as much sense as you picking Notre Dame to win in the next Alabama vs Auburn game. lol


I think you have captured the essence of Hurricane forecasting........

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:That makes about as much sense as you picking Notre Dame to win in the next Alabama vs Auburn game.  lol


I think you have captured the essence of Hurricane forecasting........

True, that is indeed the essence of the seaoat hurricane forecasting.

Hallmarkgard



You all know that Hurricane weather forecasting is controlled by the Big Box Home improvement stores. Think about it.

RealLindaL



Bob wrote:
2seaoat wrote:That makes about as much sense as you picking Notre Dame to win in the next Alabama vs Auburn game.  lol


I think you have captured the essence of Hurricane forecasting........

True,  that is indeed the essence of the seaoat hurricane forecasting.


AWARD:   Best Comeback of the Season

RealLindaL



Hallmarkgard wrote:You all know that Hurricane weather forecasting is controlled by the Big Box Home improvement stores.   Think about it.  


AWARD:  Most Intriguing Conspiracy Theory of the Season

2seaoat



There is no conspiracy theory.   There is increasing money gains by capturing the attention of Americans by internet clicks.   A rule of thumb is that the outdoor recreation business gets gutted by over zealous weather forecasting which captures audience and dollars for clicks on the internet, and viewership for increased ad rates, and yes.....clearly brick and mortar purchases when a scare is given to a broad geographic area.  People will flood a Home Depot to buy plywood to board up, and then have it sit around for 10 years, until the next scare.....when probably new wood will be bought.

My biggest complaint for a decade is that these policies kill people.  There should be caution in hurricane forecasting recognizing the limitations of the same, and not having any tolerance for weather outlets blowing up storms to gain profits.   This crying wolf syndrome kills people

2seaoat



Bob,
Where are your graphics with this storm......I mean for a week you have created this huge thread......do not fizzle on me like your cat 4 hurricane which you showed hitting Pensacola......I need to see when it is 72 hours from hitting the Texas coast.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

It's no longer going due west. It's started to make the curve.

"The depression is moving northwestward..."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/291444.shtml

Sal

Sal

Bob wrote:It's no longer going due west.  It's started to make the curve.

"The depression is moving northwestward..."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/291444.shtml

That's TD8.

TD9 is the one in the Gulf.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:Bob,
I need to see when it is 72 hours from hitting the Texas coast.

Well it's moving less than 10 miles an hour.  So for it cross the Florida peninsula,  cross the Atlantic,  cross Europe and Asia,  cross the Pacific,  and then cross Mexico to reach El Paso,  I predict will take six months.



Last edited by Bob on 8/29/2016, 12:31 pm; edited 1 time in total

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Sal wrote:
Bob wrote:It's no longer going due west.  It's started to make the curve.

"The depression is moving northwestward..."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/291444.shtml

That's TD8.

TD9 is the one in the Gulf.

There's too goddamn many of them out there now to keep track of. My mistake. lol

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Correction for Sal.  11 AM...

"A mid-tropospheric shortwave trough
developing over the southeastern United States is expected to
induce a turn toward the north and northeast in 2 to 3 days,
followed by acceleration toward the east-northeast late in the
forecast period. The official forecast is similar to that from the
previous advisory, and is mainly a blend of the latest GFS and
ECMWF solutions but leans toward the latter model"

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/291443.shtml

2seaoat



True, that is indeed the essence of the seaoat hurricane forecasting.


Actually, if anybody really was knowledgeable on hurricanes on this forum, my prediction has a base in science which I guarantee no person will discover why I made the selection when it ran counter to all the great knowledge.......we will see first if anybody can discover why I selected Texas, and the basis in science for the same..........but therein is the problem.....the limitations of the science.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:True, that is indeed the essence of the seaoat hurricane forecasting.


Actually, if anybody really was knowledgeable on hurricanes on this forum, my prediction has a base in science which I guarantee no person will discover why I made the selection when it ran counter to all the great knowledge.......we will see first if anybody can discover why I selected Texas, and the basis in science for the same..........but therein is the problem.....the limitations of the science.

Could it be the low level vorticity increase produced by the broader upper level flow?

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