The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

Now that graphic is the most honest, yet funniest graphic I have seen. At best 48 hours out can a person in danger have a reasonable scientific measure of what is coming, and actually it is 24 hours out which is about the same as it was in 1970. My question for Bob is when he was a kid, did he not evacuate when a hurricane was coming or was he a stay in place family?

Sal wrote:
I hear that they're already talking about canceling school hear [sic] Monday.

WTF?? ... the damn thing's not even a storm yet.

Not only that, but in its 8 p.m. update tonight to the 5-day graphic, the chances of development have been reduced to 60%. Nevertheless, even an unnamed system can cause some devastation. Just ask Baton Rouge.

Joanimaroni wrote:

That's the funniest thing I've ever seen.  Even parodies the use of the different colors you see with today's computer model products.  A technique they no doubt stole from elementary schools and crayons.

And look at that heart in the track toward the right edge.  That's what I call an artist with class.

Pretty much has fizzled out this morning.

Okay here's what the artificial intelligence is saying.

First,  the euro model now has the thing dissipating over the florida peninsula...



But then the GFS has it going to the Big Bend as a minimal storm...



And now for the worst possible scenario.  The HWRF (not as reliable) has it hitting us as a category 3 storm.

Yep, not to long after I posted it was going to fizzle I did see once in the gulf it will either remain a wave but the possibility of forming in the warm waters is likely. Then one of models had it going along the upper coast west and turning and going back east all along while skirting the coast. Sort of like Joanies pic.

On other words, guys, still, nobody knows what in heck it will do if/when it reaches the Gulf.  As of a day or two ago it was said to be likely to develop over the Caribbean, maybe as it approached the Keys -- not that I wanted it to develop, but at least that would've given us a C of C and a track by the weekend.  Now, any development -- according to the NHC discussion -- would happen in the Gulf, if at all -- and that likely wouldn't be 'til around Monday.  That would amount to pretty short notice for any definitive tracking on behalf of those of us here who need to know whether or not we have to start packing/buttoning it up for evacuation.  
Nevertheless, hubby and I are most definitely not going to start tackling that major, disruptive task at this point.  Devil and deep blue sea stuff, but we're taking a 'stay tuned' attitude.  Moved a few power tools into off-island storage, bought no perishables on our usual grocery run Thursday, but that's about it.  Meanwhile just keeping very close tabs on the official sources.

Cantore was on Miami beach this morning lol.

Those Gulf waters are really warm....great chance for strengthening.  

Murphy's law....it will be a perfect opportunity to stress me out while i am out of town.

Joanimaroni wrote:Those Gulf waters are really warm....great chance for strengthening.  

Murphy's law....it will be a perfect opportunity to stress me out while i am out of town.

Well don't get too stressed and enjoy your trip. I read that if it does strengthen it will probably only get to a 1 before hitting someone. More than likely just lots of rain mid to end of next week.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118166&start=2600

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118167&start=3180

ppaca wrote:

Joanimaroni wrote:Those Gulf waters are really warm....great chance for strengthening.  

Murphy's law....it will be a perfect opportunity to stress me out while i am out of town.

Well don't get too stressed and enjoy your trip. I read that if it does strengthen it will probably only get to a 1 before hitting someone.  More than likely just lots of rain mid to end of next week.

That sounds good.

Bob, re the HWRF model you posted above, showing a Cat 3 direct hit on NW FL, did you happen to see the Tweet posted today on Hurricane City (Cane Talk) from Eric Blake, Hurricane Specialist at the NHC?  He said:

HWRF is not a genesis model- Tests show very low skill & a pronounced high bias at early stages-Caveat emptor! #99L

In other words, the HWRF is not to be depended upon at all during the pre-cyclone stages -- and thank goodness for that in this case.

That's good news, Linda.

Anyone remember Katrina? It was a wave down at lower Florida merged with another invest and blew up. Well it looks like 91L (Fiona) is moving south and may be sucked into or not 99L creating????

Best news yet as to 99L, at least for our area:  as of 2 a.m. EDT 8/27 most models have now shifted toward the west, and NHC's predicted area of potential development partially shifted along with them (to WNW), along with another drop in development likelihood over five days to 40%.   Wouldn't be surprised to see an even more westerly direction Saturday (which would, of course, be better news for LA).

I did say or not, but it made you think.

Seriously now the air and breeze the last couple of days feels like it did before any of the TS or Hurricanes we have.

I remember Andrew, been here a year and a very rainy August here. Much like we've had this August.

There's only one minor hitch to that going west thing.

The HWRF is saying a category 3 storm will be heading toward Tampa Bay...



But the good news is, hardly anyone pays any attention to the HWRF. lol

I was just reading that no one pays attention to HRWF until the end game when it comes together.

But seriously this is a whopper the winds our at 10mph in Miami right now.

Do you have to have an account with photo bucket to upload a damn pic? I keep dragging and dropping and it seems to take then I hit post and have blank post.

Bob forgot to answer you yesterday but yes if it comes here and I am able I will help you put your back yard together.

ppaca wrote:Bob forgot to answer you yesterday but yes if it comes here and I am able I will help you put your back yard together.

You are a true friend for offering to help a sick old man.

Gonna try this again.