Are we heading into a new mini ice age?

I posted a response to Markle.....there is ice gain on 1/3 of the Antartica, but loss on 2/3s and the overall Antartica is a net loss of Ice, and when combined with other areas......the loss is 314 to 14 gain......when people cherry pick stats it does nothing to add to the discussion.....there may be tilt involved, but we need to continue the discussions with nothing being off limits....I think this is getting very serious....this winter was scary warm until yesterday....I dread the bugs this summer.

There is no doubt in my mind that our weather is changing. I have been here in Pensacola now for almost ten years and feel positive our rainfall is less than it was ten years ago.

I may be completely wrong about the rainfall. I tried to look it up and got nowhere. Could somebody bring up a graph that shows the precipitation here in Pensacola since 2000 up to now?

2seaoat wrote:I do admit it's cute when people think our tiny recorded history can tell the future... it's like getting life lectures from a teenager.


Look I was a geology minor in College....I actually studied glaciers and the land forms during the various periods of the same.....but nobody is talking about a normal trend or cycle.....things are happening very very quickly......our geological history has indicated that there have been times in our history when things have also happened very quickly. In my life span of 61 years I am seeing some amazing changes, and the politics of this do not matter a bit.....the warming, my experiencing personally 6 major floods in 9 years, 2 hurricanes....back to back......and a river that did not freeze until yesterday....you are up in Northern Michigan at times....tell me.....am I losing my mind....or was this the mildest winter in your life up until yesterday?

I was a geology minor too... and yes it's been a mild winter here. Not the warmest tho... once in the early eighties it was almost seventy for a few days in january. We played basketball and tennis outside... it was awesome.

I've thght you've been kidding with your anecdotal evidence...

Are you serious?

I've thght you've been kidding with your anecdotal evidence...

Not kidding at all....I have gone back to 1905 and studied river levels. I have lost 243k in floods in the last 9 years. In over a century plus, I have personally seen the 6 of the top 10 floods in the last 9 years. I got whacked by Ivan, and a year later Dennis, and now I am seeing Midwest rivers not icing....grain barges stuck on the Mississippi because the river is too low, and extremes swings in weather which I have never experienced. I understand the difference between weather and climate, I have mapped glacial morraines, and studied the time frames and what glaciers have done, but all of the science does not compare to my first hand observations which I am simply sharing....something is way wrong.....I do not need a scientist to tell me the canary is dead in the cage.....nor am I trying to explain what killed the canary......something is terribly wrong........Duck hunter motor boating on January 15 on open water in the upper midwest......insane.

2seaoat wrote:I've thght you've been kidding with your anecdotal evidence...

Not kidding at all....I have gone back to 1905 and studied river levels. I have lost 243k in floods in the last 9 years. In over a century plus, I have personally seen the 6 of the top 10 floods in the last 9 years. I got whacked by Ivan, and a year later Dennis, and now I am seeing Midwest rivers not icing....grain barges stuck on the Mississippi because the river is too low, and extremes swings in weather which I have never experienced. I understand the difference between weather and climate, I have mapped glacial morraines, and studied the time frames and what glaciers have done, but all of the science does not compare to my first hand observations which I am simply sharing....something is way wrong.....I do not need a scientist to tell me the canary is dead in the cage.....nor am I trying to explain what killed the canary......something is terribly wrong........Duck hunter motor boating on January 15 on open water in the upper midwest......insane.

NASA has predicted that the solar cycle peaking in 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries and should cause a very significant cooling of Earth’s climate. Will this be the trigger that initiates a new Ice Age?

http://www.winningreen.com/site/epage/59549_621.htm


Gerald Marsh is a retired physicist from the Argonne National Laboratory and a former consultant to the Department of Defense on strategic nuclear technology and policy in the Reagan, Bush, and Clinton Administration. Readers may e-mail him at gemarsh@uchicago.edu

2seaoat wrote:I've thght you've been kidding with your anecdotal evidence...

Not kidding at all....I have gone back to 1905 and studied river levels. I have lost 243k in floods in the last 9 years. In over a century plus, I have personally seen the 6 of the top 10 floods in the last 9 years. I got whacked by Ivan, and a year later Dennis, and now I am seeing Midwest rivers not icing....grain barges stuck on the Mississippi because the river is too low, and extremes swings in weather which I have never experienced. I understand the difference between weather and climate, I have mapped glacial morraines, and studied the time frames and what glaciers have done, but all of the science does not compare to my first hand observations which I am simply sharing....something is way wrong.....I do not need a scientist to tell me the canary is dead in the cage.....nor am I trying to explain what killed the canary......something is terribly wrong........Duck hunter motor boating on January 15 on open water in the upper midwest......insane.

Just wow... not sure I believe you... the scales and time lines alone debunk you. Try to imagine a mile high glacier where you are now... 12K years in earth's history is the blink of an eye. but don't let me slow you down.

Doooomed I tell ya....

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

Jan. 8, 2013: In the galactic scheme of things, the Sun is a remarkably constant star. While some stars exhibit dramatic pulsations, wildly yo-yoing in size and brightness, and sometimes even exploding, the luminosity of our own sun varies a measly 0.1% over the course of the 11-year solar cycle.

There is, however, a dawning realization among researchers that even these apparently tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate. A new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate," lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet.

TEOTWAWKI wrote:http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

Jan. 8, 2013: In the galactic scheme of things, the Sun is a remarkably constant star. While some stars exhibit dramatic pulsations, wildly yo-yoing in size and brightness, and sometimes even exploding, the luminosity of our own sun varies a measly 0.1% over the course of the 11-year solar cycle.

There is, however, a dawning realization among researchers that even these apparently tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate. A new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate," lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet.

Right on!

here something i just found. I had no idea that that ozone hole is actually helping antartica stay frozen.

In the 1980s, scientists discovered that emissions of refrigerants and accelerants called chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had depleted the ozone layer, especially over Antarctica. Ozone depletion, notorious for permitting more cancer-causing ultraviolet light to reach the surface, has a lesser known impact: It cools the stratosphere, the layer of atmosphere between 10 and 60 kilometers (6 and 37 miles) above the surface.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/antarctic_melting.html

who knew?

fyi the air over the northern states is colder than it is at the north pole

Although the sun is gradually getting larger and hotter... there are some new theories that there are magnetic instabilities that fluctuate in a cycle between 41,000 and 100,000 years and have a profound effect upon our climate. What we don't know could kill us... AAAaaagh..!!

I've decided to add global destruction to my afterlife insurance policy.

http://iopscience.iop.org/2041-8205/729/1/L8?site_preference=normal

PkrBum wrote:Although the sun is gradually getting larger and hotter... there are some new theories that there are magnetic instabilities that fluctuate in a cycle between 41,000 and 100,000 years and have a profound effect upon our climate. What we don't know could kill us... AAAaaagh..!!

I've decided to add global destruction to my afterlife insurance policy.

http://iopscience.iop.org/2041-8205/729/1/L8?site_preference=normal

Yes I completly believe that the magnetic pole change is altering the jet streams.

You used to be able to watch this, but last year they removed it. I havnt looked in a while to see if it ever came back up.

--

Oct. 16, 2012 — Some 41,000 years ago, a complete and rapid reversal of the geomagnetic field occured. Magnetic studies of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences on sediment cores from the Black Sea show that during this period, during the last ice age, a compass at the Black Sea would have pointed to the south instead of north.

Ice Age Polarity Reversal Was Global Event: Extremely Brief Reversal of Geomagnetic Field, Climate Variability, and Super Volcano


http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/10/121016084936.htm

this makes a goood read too.
http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Magnetosphere/earth_magnetic_reversals.html&edu=high

interesting stuff.......

pkr, i enjoyed your link/article. thanks

Chrissy wrote:

PkrBum wrote:Although the sun is gradually getting larger and hotter... there are some new theories that there are magnetic instabilities that fluctuate in a cycle between 41,000 and 100,000 years and have a profound effect upon our climate. What we don't know could kill us... AAAaaagh..!!

I've decided to add global destruction to my afterlife insurance policy.

http://iopscience.iop.org/2041-8205/729/1/L8?site_preference=normal

Yes I completly believe that the magnetic pole change is altering the jet streams.

You used to be able to watch this, but last year they removed it. I havnt looked in a while to see if it ever came back up.

--

Oct. 16, 2012 — Some 41,000 years ago, a complete and rapid reversal of the geomagnetic field occured. Magnetic studies of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences on sediment cores from the Black Sea show that during this period, during the last ice age, a compass at the Black Sea would have pointed to the south instead of north.

Ice Age Polarity Reversal Was Global Event: Extremely Brief Reversal of Geomagnetic Field, Climate Variability, and Super Volcano


http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/10/121016084936.htm

this makes a goood read too.
http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Magnetosphere/earth_magnetic_reversals.html&edu=high

interesting stuff.......

pkr, i enjoyed your link/article. thanks

You're welcome... That article was about the sun's magnetic variations. Plasma field dynamics are very cool...

and we know less about that than we do our magnetosphere... which ain't much either... lol.

PkrBum wrote:Perhaps you would prefer this for about fifty million years?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_Earth

How do you think humans would make out?

I do admit it's cute when people think our tiny recorded history can tell the future... it's like getting life lectures from a teenager.

PkrBum, do you acknowledge that greenhouse gases produce a warming effect?

boards of FL wrote:

PkrBum wrote:Perhaps you would prefer this for about fifty million years?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_Earth

How do you think humans would make out?

I do admit it's cute when people think our tiny recorded history can tell the future... it's like getting life lectures from a teenager.

PkrBum, do you acknowledge that greenhouse gases produce a warming effect?

Sure... But atmospheric particle dynamics are a complex study and we're learning new things regularly. There are likely spectrum absorption limits... aerosol relationships that behave differently to reactants... simple molecular weight may be more important for kinetic transfers. Do you think co2 is a more important driver than water vapor?

http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/kinetic/kintem.html

PkrBum wrote:
Sure...

OK. Do you also agree that there is alot more of that stuff in the air today than there was 50 or more years ago?

2seaoat wrote:You never answered my question. You and I are not climate scientist....nor is anybody on this forum. I made it easy. I asked you to describe what was happening in Iowa from Christmas until about January 21st. I have never in my life seen such mild winter conditions. Now today......its colder than I have felt over a year. No, do you not agree with me on how mild this winter was until this cold snap? This alone proves nothing....I am simply trying to see if this an isolated warm winter or more wide spread.

You didn't consider last winter mild?

If the climate scientists have to fake the results of what they record then they are not scientists.

*****SMILE*****

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQzUCO7rG0M

2seaoat wrote:I posted a response to Markle.....there is ice gain on 1/3 of the Antartica, but loss on 2/3s and the overall Antartica is a net loss of Ice, and when combined with other areas......the loss is 314 to 14 gain......when people cherry pick stats it does nothing to add to the discussion.....there may be tilt involved, but we need to continue the discussions with nothing being off limits....I think this is getting very serious....this winter was scary warm until yesterday....I dread the bugs this summer.

And sunspot activity is on the increase again which in turn means there is increased solar radiation.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

If there's increased solar radiation do you think that there might be a warming spell in our future?

*****SMILE*****

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybeke7_d1zE

boards of FL wrote:

PkrBum wrote:
Sure...

OK. Do you also agree that there is alot more of that stuff in the air today than there was 50 or more years ago?

China's seen a cooling trend for the last decade because of all the stuff (particulate matter) that they've been pumping into the air with their new industries.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/04/global-warming-china-air-pollution_n_889897.html

http://www.infowars.com/scientists-admit-climate-cooled-in-the-last-decade-cite-sulfur-pollution-from-china/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2011297/Coal-burning-China-cools-planet.html

Funny... More particulate matter in the atmosphere reflects more solar radiation back into space.

Hm.m..m... Why didn't the climate scientists see that coming?...

*****CHUCKLE*****

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_1XdSqBQUg

boards of FL wrote:

PkrBum wrote:
Sure...

OK. Do you also agree that there is alot more of that stuff in the air today than there was 50 or more years ago?

You didn't answer my question. There was always a good reason not to pollute if that's what you want to hear. if you're talking about co2... there have been much higher levels in our past... some during glacial maximums. You do realize co2 is necessary... right? I don't think most green dreamers have any grasp of the time scales and complexities of earth's geologic history. We've literally been here for a blink of an eye in earths history. A model with this many variables is a ridiculous justification for an obvious ideological agenda... not to mention just plain bad science.

PkrBum wrote:

boards of FL wrote:

PkrBum wrote:
Sure...

OK. Do you also agree that there is alot more of that stuff in the air today than there was 50 or more years ago?

You didn't answer my question. There was always a good reason not to pollute if that's what you want to hear. if you're talking about co2... there have been much higher levels in our past... some during glacial maximums. You do realize co2 is necessary... right? I don't think most green dreamers have any grasp of the time scales and complexities of earth's geologic history. We've literally been here for a blink of an eye in earths history. A model with this many variables is a ridiculous justification for an obvious ideological agenda... not to mention just plain bad science.

We're a long way from having any true planetologists.

*****SMILE*****

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBmtaFq0kvQ

Global warming is the least of our worries.

I'd be more concerned if there was an overall global cooling.

It's easy to cool the world off warming it up is a totally different matter all together.

*****SMILE*****

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voqTSufmApY&NR=1

theres way more evidence and science that leads to this road. I realize it may not look like it today but as pkr said, we ay have bought ourselves a little more time.

I think people are misunderstanding what it appears like going into a mini ice age. its not boom, everything is frozen. I wish others would read all the links that were put here just for conversation wise. I know its alot, heck it took me reading on this years before i even got a tiny grasp on it. and there is still too much i dont know or can even try and piece together.

And as DE mentioned, yes the sun has been on active level. had lots of fun watching it last couple of years on SOHO. but thats ending soon or should i say ended.

with that said, i am not an advocate of blatant polution. I am also not an advocate of the carbon credit system or a global tax. < i dont want to change the subject because little ice age is more relevant than global warming, but some people are taking the subject down global warming and i just wanted to be clear on that.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/11/09/peat_ice_age_coming_only_co2_can_save_us/http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/11/09/peat_ice_age_coming_only_co2_can_save_us/

If Franzén and his team are right, the big chill is now under way, and is only just being held off by increasing human carbon emissions - perhaps explaining why temperatures have been merely flat for the last 15 years or so, rather than descending.

The Swedish scientists' paper is published in the peer-reviewed journal Mires and Peat, and can be read here in pdf.

PkrBum wrote:Sure...

OK. Now read this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth's_atmosphere

The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in Earth's atmosphere has reached 391 ppm (parts per million) as of October 2012[1][2] and rose by 2.0 ppm/yr during 2000–2009. [2][3] This current concentration is substantially higher than the 280 ppm concentration present in pre-industrial times, with the increase largely attributed to anthropogenic sources.[4] Carbon dioxide is used in photosynthesis (in plants and other photoautotrophs), and is also a prominent greenhouse gas. Despite its relatively small overall concentration in the atmosphere, CO2 is an important component of Earth's atmosphere because it absorbs and emits infrared radiation at wavelengths of 4.26 µm (asymmetric stretching vibrational mode) and 14.99 µm (bending vibrational mode), thereby playing a role in the greenhouse effect.[5] The present level is higher than at any time during the last 800 thousand years,[6] and likely higher than in the past 20 million years.[7]

Now let's put this all together:

1) Greenhouse gases produce a warming effect

2) We currently have a CO2 level that is rising sharply since the beginning of the industrial revolution, and has us at a concentration not seen in over 800 thousand to 20 million years on this planet.

3) I ran my air conditioner last week.

What to make of all this?