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The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

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2seaoat wrote:Bob, thinks that 115 miles is the standard.

Oh for gods sake,  Bob thinks no such thing.  Just when I think I've heard the limits of your absurdities,  you always are able to top it.  lol

If Bob has a preferred standard,  it would be the same as the one the forecasters prefer,  a zero % average error in the forecast.
All the 115 miles is where they're at with it at this point in time. Which is a shitpot better average than your average error of 1000 miles with your dartboard. lol

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Sal looks like on radar you have a big squall coming in right now.

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And all the stores are doing land mark sales as they project the landing all across the state.


Exactly, but more disgusting in my mind is the media is making a bunch of money as they raise their ad rates on the weather section of newscast as people start watching local news for weather, and the internet folks who sell ads by clicks are taking a wheel barrow of profit from a storm, as folks all along Florida beaches who run outdoor recreation businesses, bars, and restaurants take a huge hit as unreliable news and forecasting means profits for media, but hurt the American Economy.

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2seaoat wrote:

3.  This could still hit Pensacola, Texas, or Marco Island, but as we get close to the 24 hour threshold.......the reliability becomes useful, but the time to react is insufficient.   My point remains......we are still playing darts, mine was wrong, Bob's was wrong, and the linear threads of the forecast all went north and west meaning there is a very good chance my RV will be floating in Escambia Bay........when it was suppose to hit Sal.....but Sal is getting flooded anyway.......

You really don't have even an elementary comprehension of statistics.

To establish your position on this, you cherry pick out what is arguably the most unpredictable storm in recent years. And you then so conveniently outright ignore what the outcome was in the previous two hurricanes which struck our area. Here is how far off those track foreasts were when the hurricanes were 3 days out...

BULLSEYE



BULLSEYE



Jesus, 2seaoat, if we use your reasoning, then we point out only the games Babe Ruth did not hit a home run in and argue that he was a shitty player.

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[b]All the 115 miles is where they're at with it at this point in time. Which is a shitpot better average than your average error of 1000 miles with your dartboard. lol
[/b

Wrong.....your logic belies your Escambia education because if it is suppose to hit a 115 miles away or a thousand miles away and then slams a person who needed time to prepare......the result is exactly the same......a disaster which could have been avoided with reliable fifty mile parameters three days out......our science is so far from reaching that goal it is hilarious to think that darts are any worse than the person slammed 115 miles away with your Tommy Skillet head false illusions of anything close to reliability.

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ppaca wrote:Sal looks like on radar you have a big squall coming in right now.

Raining again like the dickens.

Frogs are loving it.

My lanai screens are absolutely covered in tiny, thumbnail-sized frogs singing their lungs out.

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One more question. When a storm is on a westerly heading, how in hell are darts and a dartboard going to ever predict that the storm will turn around and go in a different direction? Have you invented boomerang darts? lol

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Let me ask you this Bob.......do you feel confident about anything in regard to this storm? If you answer the question honestly, you concede my point.

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2seaoat wrote:Let me ask you this Bob.......do you feel confident about anything in regard to this storm?   If you answer the question honestly, you concede my point.

At this point,  the only thing I'm not very confident about,  is the exact spot on the north florida gulf coast where the center of the storm will be at landfall.

And by the way,  as Yogi said,  this game aint over till it's over.  Babe Ruth still has a couple of innings remaining.  We don't know the final score yet.
Once the storm makes landfall, we'll compare that spot to the 72 hour forecast and see how far from the average error it ends up being.

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Finally took the turn

10:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 31
Location: 25.8°N 87.0°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA

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ppaca wrote:Finally took the turn

10:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 31
Location: 25.8°N 87.0°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA

That probably clinches it.  Since it's now only 24 hours from landfall and it's speeding up as predicted,  the storm center will probably go in close to the center of the 10 PM cone.  Which is right at Apalachicola (sic).

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Bob wrote:
2seaoat wrote:Bob, thinks that 115 miles is the standard.

Oh for gods sake,  Bob thinks no such thing.  Just when I think I've heard the limits of your absurdities,  you always are able to top it.  lol

If Bob has a preferred standard,  it would be the same as the one the forecasters prefer,  a zero % average error in the forecast.
All the 115 miles is where they're at with it at this point in time.  Which is a shitpot better average than your average error of 1000 miles with your dartboard.  lol  

You tell 'im, Bob.   Have to say I've been watching you stand strong and true in battling the B.S. on this thread from the biggest B.S.'er on this forum, and with great admiration.   Every time Sea tries to bring on the smoke and mirrors to justify his ridiculous positions, you shoot him down with facts and logic.  You are doing an EXCELLENT job, not letting him get away with his fantastical "absurdities," and I hope you keep it up.

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Bob wrote:That probably clinches it.  Since it's now only 24 hours from landfall and it's speeding up as predicted,  the storm center will probably go in close to the center of the 10 PM cone.  Which is right at Apalachicola (sic).

Yeah, Bob, you spelled it right this time.   lol    But what I want to know is, if the center indeed makes landfall at Apalachicola (damn that's hard to type correctly), what prize do I and the other person who voted for that spot in your landfall poll win?

I realize I could be leaving myself wide open with that question, but I really want to know.   Smile

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Paying attention to the prior cone graphics we've all been posting from the NHC website, I find it mildly surprising (and a little annoying) that the images all get updated each time the forum loads.  I don't want them to update, because (1) then the graphic often doesn't match the description in the post, and (2) it leaves us with no progression record on the thread (yes, I know we can find that elsewhere.  Still...)  But obviously, since what we're posting when we include an image like this is a URL of the image's Internet location, forumotion's server is going out and retrieving the image from that URL every time the forum loads -- and voila, the image is loaded from the updated version at the time.  

Somebody probably knows a way to counteract that, but I'm too tired to even care at this moment.  lol   (Really starting to sound like Bob with all these lol's.   lol.)

Am a little relieved tonight to find the edge of the cone having moved back east to Mexico Beach as of the 10 p.m. CDT update, even though the hurricane watch has been left in place as far west as Destin.   I'll take that, and wish you all a fond goodnight.

Oh, and I'm planning on buying more perishables at the grocery store tomorrow, so there.

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RealLindaL wrote:
You tell 'im, Bob.   Have to say I've been watching you stand strong and true in battling the B.S. on this thread from the biggest B.S.'er on this forum, and with great admiration.   Every time Sea tries to bring on the smoke and mirrors to justify his ridiculous positions, you shoot him down with facts and logic.  You are doing an EXCELLENT job, not letting him get away with his fantastical "absurdities," and I hope you keep it up.

All that said, I must add I'm glad Sea decided to prove ME wrong by admitting HE was wrong in predicting a Texas landfall.  I never, ever would've expected to see such an admission from him -- even though, of course, he then immediately threw in a bunch more (doubtless self-exculpatory) smoke and mirrors (which I refused to even read, btw).    lol   (Definitely last lol of the night, I promise)

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Not another bullseye like Ivan and Dennis,  but pretty damn close,  wouldn't you say,  seaoat?
Looks to me like that 115 mile average error is in the process of getting narrower.  
This was their forecast track on Sunday at 5 PM (still four days away from landfall).


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RealLindaL wrote:
Bob wrote:That probably clinches it.  Since it's now only 24 hours from landfall and it's speeding up as predicted,  the storm center will probably go in close to the center of the 10 PM cone.  Which is right at Apalachicola (sic).

Yeah, Bob, you spelled it right this time.   lol    But what I want to know is, if the center indeed makes landfall at Apalachicola (damn that's hard to type correctly), what prize do I and the other person who voted for that spot in your landfall poll win?

I realize I could be leaving myself wide open with that question, but I really want to know.   Smile

Linda, you'll get the grand prize if that happens. And the grand prize is...curtain opening...

NO CYCLONE FOR PENSACOLA BEACH

lol

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At least not this time. But the hurricane season aint over till it's over. lol

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Yep the NHC did pretty good with this one. Looks like Tampa as I type as a big blob going to hit it any minute.

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Fair skies, just a little breezy this morning.

Calling for bands of heavy rain later, but we're pretty much in the clear.

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Me and Yella went to the island about 6:30.

When there's no danger to our homes being flooded or blown down,  these things then become an awesome thing of nature to witness.
Relatively a midget storm with the center being 200 miles away,  and even still it's raising the entire level of the ocean and producing what for our coast are monster waves.
It's really a beautiful thing to behold.

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Were the waves formed or was it just a washing machine?

PkrBum wrote:Were the waves formed or was it just a washing machine?

This morning it looked real honest to goodness surfing waves.

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Sign at the beachside entrance to the Hilton lol





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Markle you put floaters on your motorcycle yet? Coming pretty much straight for you.

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