Eye to the sky, Gulf Coasters

Watching new Tropical Depression Sixteen, apparently heading for somewhere on the northeastern Gulf Coast this weekend as a (hopefully minimum, but a little too soon to tell) hurricane:

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since
yesterday and is now a tropical depression.  GOES-16 one-minute
visible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands
of deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island.  The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite
classification, given recent microwave data.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to
provide a better estimate.

Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental
conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression.  A
large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid
intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or
southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm
and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the
depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America.  The
official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the
high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based
tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward this morning, around
a distant mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
However the steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow as the
aforementioned mid-tropospheric trough moves across the northwestern
Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on
the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move
much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  As the trough moves away, a building
ridge over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to steer the system
to the north-northeast or northeast toward the northern Gulf
states. There is a fair bit of model spread for now, partly owing to
the representation of the Florida Straits trough.  The GFS-based
guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the
new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of
the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the
UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus,
but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions and heavy rainfall to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras
tonight through Thursday.

2. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of
Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall.  However, it is too early to specify the timing
or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from
Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for
the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 12.2N  81.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  05/0000Z 12.7N  82.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  05/1200Z 13.8N  83.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  06/0000Z 15.3N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
48H  06/1200Z 17.9N  85.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  07/1200Z 23.5N  87.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  08/1200Z 29.0N  86.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 34.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

Thanks for that info Linda. Problem is, I have a daughter and a son-in-law right now who are in the Caribbean on a Carnival cruise ship. They had originally planned their trip for Puerto Rico, The Virgin Islands, and the Bahamas. Two of those places they had never been to. They sailed out of Miami, and because of the devastation in PR and the Virgins, Carnival changed their plans and they supposedly went to Cozumel, Jamaica, and Half Moon key. They'd both been to all these places a couple of times. We went with them a couple of years ago, and they're all very nice spots, but this system has been sitting around in that area now for about a week.
I haven't heard from them but I'm betting their vacation has been pretty much ruined. I hope they can sail around this thing to get back to Miami on Saturday. I'm truly hoping they'll get home on time and safely.
I'm baby sitting their 2 dogs while they are gone (we have two of our own), and 4 dogs is a lot in my house. Her dogs are very yippy too and have annoyed my neighbor to the point he set out fireworks to scare them back into my house yesterday morning. And one of them not only peed on my floor but pooped on our guest bed.
It's been a long week. I really want them home on time.

RealLindaL wrote:Watching new Tropical Depression Sixteen, apparently heading for somewhere on the northeastern Gulf Coast this weekend as a (hopefully minimum, but a little too soon to tell) hurricane:

Fingers crossed the cool air pushes it east.

I don't know, Joani.   Right now (as of the 11 p.m. 10/4) the trend is west, with the center of the predicted track sitting right over us, whereas earlier it was at Panama City Beach, and Apalachicola before that.  I, too, hope it moves back east some.   Everything's just too iffy right now and it makes even moving ahead with daily living plans a challenge.  I know, tough noogies.

Bigdog, that's a truly sad tale from all angles.   I really hope things are not as bad for the kids as you fear, and empathize with your wanting them home sooner rather than later -- and, no doubt, safe and sound.  Keep us apprised, if you're willing!  The dog situation would be driving me nuts.   You're a generous trooper for even agreeing to keep them.   I'm thinking you might not do THAT again.  

We will hold the fort down no matter what.

I've kept the dogs before when the kids when on vacation, and this one small dog has the worst habits of any animal I've ever seen. He pees on the floor when the doggy door is there for him to go in and out anytime. We don't ever lock it in the daytime.
He will scoot across any type of rug or carpet on our floor to wipe his butt- luckily we have hardwood floors in the house and just a few accent rugs, but I've had to take them all up for the week.
He yips most of the day and wants to sit in our laps every time we sit down in a chair, and will sit up and just stare at our faces and unfortunately, the food my daughter sends with him to eat causes him to have bad breath. Oh, and he's a farter.
My dogs are both big and our daughter's other dog is a good size too. I've just never been one for small yippy dogs. We really have no choice but to agree to keep them because our own dogs will not eat when we're gone unless they are staying with family. So, occasionally we need their help too.
But the reason we have a camper is so we can take our dogs with us on most vacations.

I know most of my post is about this dog, but I am actually also concerned about my daughter an son-in-law. I haven't heard anything from them since Sunday. I know there would be news if anything happened to the ship, so I'm guessing they are safe. Maybe seasick though, especially if they had to sail through 35 MPH winds. We'll probably hear an interesting story when they return.

Which, please , please let it be on schedule. Their doggy Cody needs them.

Joanimaroni wrote:We will hold the fort down no matter what.

Of course!

And as we can see from the latest NHC track in the automatically updating image first shown above, the3-day cone, including Sunday a.m. landfall, has moved yet farther west, and we are now just outside its far eastern edge. Not the greatest place to be, but if actual landfall keeps moving west, we're good.

Further, just looked at the 12z Euro and GFS models and they've now come into very close agreement, both showing a Louisiana landfall; GFS on central LA coast, Euro close to Mississippi state line. Predicted barometric pressures at landfall are within 2 MB's of each other. Pretty amazing, I'd say, when the storm center itself is still down in Central America.

Gotta love modern day hurricane science, as imperfect as it still is.

Looking more and more like we won't have to evacuate. Fingers crossed for no major surprises!!

European model has the best track record...do you agree?

Joanimaroni wrote:European model has the best track record...do you agree?

So far this hurricane season, anyway, most definitely yes  -- but not so much for this storm.  The GFS had landfall farther west all along, but the NHC discounted it as relying on some irrelevant or incorrect info, sticking with the eastern solution of the Euro, which at one point, as you'll recall, was all the way over east of Apalachicola, near Perry.  Now, as mentioned above, the Euro has moved way west and come into agreement with the GFS for a LA/MS landfall, and that's where all the spaghetti models now lie as well, along with the NHC's predicted track cone (y'all please refer to the constantly updating graphic first up on Page 1).   This close to landfall, the track certainty is pretty high.  (Intensity, currently predicted to be Cat. 1 at landfall, is a little iffier, as usual.)

Speaking of "iffier" intensity accuracy, the 00z runs of both GFS and Euro now show a tropical storm at best at landfall. Not complaining! Hope they're right.

Euro also shows interaction with western Cuba instead of the Yucatan. Interesting - or a fluke run, possibly for both.

Off to bed; will have to see what the morning brings. 'Night all, LL

European model has the best track record...do you agree?


Europeans have historically been better dart throwers.

2seaoat wrote:European model has the best track record...do you agree?


Europeans have historically been better dart throwers.

Maybe our guys are shooting darts in the bar.

RealLindaL wrote:Speaking of "iffier" intensity accuracy, the 00z runs of both GFS and Euro now show a tropical storm at best at landfall.  Not complaining!   Hope they're right.

Euro also shows interaction with western Cuba instead of the Yucatan.  Interesting - or a fluke run, possibly for both.  

Off to bed; will have to see what the morning brings.  'Night all,  LL

If you think of the Gulf of Mexico as a big table, where troughs are dips and ridges are bumps, tropical systems sitting on that "table" are like a cue ball. They roll toward the dips, and that cold front coming in from the NW will help draw it upward and maybe hold it farther West...I hope.

Joanimaroni wrote:that cold front coming in from the NW will help draw it upward and maybe hold it farther West...I hope.

No such luck.   The NHC's 10 a.m. 10/6 update shows things moving east again. As you can see in the updated Post #1, we're now under a hurricane (instead of tropical storm) watch, and back in the cone.   We're also under a storm surge watch extending all the way to Apalachicola, though the warned area still stops at the Alabama border (for now).

Being on the east side of the storm and now apparently closer to storm center, we may very possibly experience some of the worst conditions Nate has to throw out there.  

Still, we are not planning to evacuate at this time, barring any drastic change and/or instructions from the Island Authority.

Storm is expected to speed along, arriving in the wee hours before dawn on Sunday.

So, back to square one:  eye to the sky!  And finalizing our preps, such as they are.

I don't like the looks of this one.

I hate it when they come and it's still dark. Fredrick and Ivan were both at night and just the noise was enough to scare us to death.
We won't leave for a storm this size either, but may need the generator. It doesn't take much to lose power for a couple of days.
Glad we had the thing refurbished awhile back. It needed some serious repairs but it's back working again.

RealLindaL wrote:

Joanimaroni wrote:that cold front coming in from the NW will help draw it upward and maybe hold it farther West...I hope.

No such luck.   The NHC's 10 a.m. 10/6 update shows things moving east again.  As you can see in the updated Post #1, we're now under a hurricane (instead of tropical storm) watch, and back in the cone.   We're also under a storm surge watch extending all the way to Apalachicola, though the warned area still stops at the Alabama border (for now).

Being on the east side of the storm and now apparently closer to storm center, we may very possibly experience some of the worst conditions Nate has to throw out there.  

Still, we are not planning to evacuate at this time, barring any drastic change and/or instructions from the Island Authority.

Storm is expected to speed along, arriving in the wee hours before dawn on Sunday.

So, back to square one:  eye to the sky!  And finalizing our preps, such as they are.

Dammit

Jim Cantore is on the move.....from Biloxi to Gulf Shores.

Looked at the Hurricane Center website and there are winds of 75 MPH now in this storm. Looking at the color chart on their site is not very comforting. It shows possible wind speeds in various locations in the cone and we are dark red, indicating possible 80-90 mph winds.
I'm thinking this thing has all day tomorrow to get stronger. Maybe it's moving so fast it won't have time to strengthen much, but 90mph winds just don't appeal to me much right now.
It's October dammit- fall festival season. We should be over this crap by now.

Joanimaroni wrote:Jim Cantore is on the move.....from Biloxi to Gulf Shores.

And you know we've had our own resident Weather Channel personality on PBeach since Friday a.m., with another assigned for Saturday - but Cantore is, of course, the "gold standard" to watch out for. I hope that means Gulf Shores is in for it more than we are. Not to wish ill upon others, but...

bigdog wrote:90mph winds just don't appeal to me much right now.
It's October dammit- fall festival season. We should be over this crap by now.

Totally agree, bd - dammit is right. But the hurricane's looking pretty scary tonight, and if rapid intensification -- which is a distinct possibility -- happens over the Gulf by tomorrow, we'll surely have to change our plans, throw together some clothes and food and skedaddle to the hotel. But I ain't throwing out my whole fridge contents again! Just ain't gonna do it!

Interestingly, though the county EOC put out a non-mandatory evacuation "order" late Friday that includes PBeach, all the major island hotels and restaurants I called are planning to stay open, not sending guests packing. And ECUA is not turning off water unless things change drastically. Also, the EOC people tell me they've had lots of calls from PBeach and Perdido Key people and no one seems to be very worried about this storm.

I wasn't all that much before, but now it's working on me. Gotta go get some zzzz's to be clear headed for tomorrow's decision. Nerve wracking as heck!!!

So how big does a storm need to be before we put the hurricane shutters/fabric up?

Cat 1? Cat 2? Cat 3?

Once again the very part of the country which consistently ignores science and votes for those who deny climate change will be hit by extreme weather and the Federal Government once again will spend billions to fix the damage, but when we can pass legislation which tries to decrease man's contributions to climate change these very same folks think a climate denier like President Trump is our savior. Some times I have NO doubt that there is a vengeful God.