Home
Pensacola Discussion Forum
This is a forum based out of Pensacola Florida.
Tropical system in the southwest Gulf
5 posters
Message [Page 1 of 1]
2 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 4:35 pm
stormwatch89
Gotcha worried, Bob? It does me. Opal came from a similar path.
Gawd! I hate this time of year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gawd! I hate this time of year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
3 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 4:35 pm
Joanimaroni
I might get to use my generator.
4 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 4:39 pm
stormwatch89
Joani, I've done all the hurricane prevention measures....Hello?Just enrolled in an insurance adjuster program. Hope I can finish the course!
5 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 4:47 pm
Hospital Bob
You have a very good memory.stormwatch89 wrote: Opal came from a similar path.
6 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 4:57 pm
Hospital Bob
Jeff Masters' forecast this morning.
Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4".
Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4".
7 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 5:07 pm
Joanimaroni
I don't have any doubts.stormwatch89 wrote:
Just enrolled in an insurance adjuster program. Hope I can finish the course!
8 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 5:10 pm
stormwatch89
Thanks, Joani. It's harder than harder to remember stuff these days!Joanimaroni wrote:I don't have any doubts.stormwatch89 wrote:
Just enrolled in an insurance adjuster program. Hope I can finish the course!
9 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 5:14 pm
stormwatch89
Sorry if this is a double post.Bob wrote:You have a very good memory.stormwatch89 wrote: Opal came from a similar path.
Bob, there are things we never forget. Thanks.
10 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 6:00 pm
2seaoat
There goes golf over in biloxi next week......I guess it will be poker, but the Beau Rivage sits on the damn gulf.
11 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 6:09 pm
stormwatch89
SO, Not to pick but those types of comments really rub some of us wrong.2seaoat wrote:There goes golf over in biloxi next week......I guess it will be poker, but the Beau Rivage sits on the damn gulf.
My daughters were 2nd and 3rd grade when Opal hit. Students made comments like that and my older daughter actually "hit" the guy.
I'm not sure you understand the heartache that comes with these things.
Right now I'm sending food to Colorado. It's not a joke and It's not the loss of a freaking golf game.
12 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 6:25 pm
Guest
Guest
2seaoat wrote:There goes golf over in biloxi next week......I guess it will be poker, but the Beau Rivage sits on the damn gulf.
Dont Worry. I can get you a Tee time in Biloxi. Just tell them you know me..
13 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 6:30 pm
Sal
What the hell are 2nd and 3rd graders doing playing golf and poker?stormwatch89 wrote:SO, Not to pick but those types of comments really rub some of us wrong.2seaoat wrote:There goes golf over in biloxi next week......I guess it will be poker, but the Beau Rivage sits on the damn gulf.
My daughters were 2nd and 3rd grade when Opal hit. Students made comments like that and my older daughter actually "hit" the guy.
I'm not sure you understand the heartache that comes with these things.
Right now I'm sending food to Colorado. It's not a joke and It's not the loss of a freaking golf game.
14 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 11:43 pm
Hospital Bob
The center tracks of Hurricanes Opal and Erin (both in 1995).
Erin on the left, Opal on the right.
Erin on the left, Opal on the right.
15 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/18/2013, 11:55 pm
Hospital Bob
The center tracks of Hurricane Opal (1995) and Hurricane Dennis (2005).
The center of both went right over the Portofino property (although it wasn't yet Portofino in 95).
Opal on the left and Dennis on the right.
I know someone who's mother owns a beach rental house on the sound just west of where the center of both made landfall.
The house was gutted by Ivan at the end of the 2004 season. They spent the whole winter and spring rebuilding it. And then a month after the work was finished, Dennis gutted it again at the beginning of the 2005 season.
The center of both went right over the Portofino property (although it wasn't yet Portofino in 95).
Opal on the left and Dennis on the right.
I know someone who's mother owns a beach rental house on the sound just west of where the center of both made landfall.
The house was gutted by Ivan at the end of the 2004 season. They spent the whole winter and spring rebuilding it. And then a month after the work was finished, Dennis gutted it again at the beginning of the 2005 season.
16 Re: Tropical system in the southwest Gulf 9/19/2013, 12:14 am
2seaoat
It's not a joke and It's not the loss of a freaking golf game.
Actually this is a big deal for me......kind of a bucket list with 25 good golf friends. I simply cannot play because I get tired and this may be my last time, but please keep those 2nd and 3rd graders away from me.....they could easily whoop me. I have been included when they all know I may not finish 18 which messes up their games........but I got the invite, all is good when you have friends and family.
Actually this is a big deal for me......kind of a bucket list with 25 good golf friends. I simply cannot play because I get tired and this may be my last time, but please keep those 2nd and 3rd graders away from me.....they could easily whoop me. I have been included when they all know I may not finish 18 which messes up their games........but I got the invite, all is good when you have friends and family.
Message [Page 1 of 1]
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|
|