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Pensacola Discussion Forum » General Discussion » The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

+6
Hallmarkgard
dumpcare
Sal
RealLindaL
2seaoat
Hospital Bob
10 posters

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Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

RealLindaL wrote:

How about right here?   Just bookmark these:

ECMWF:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850

GFS:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850


You're welcome.   Smile

Thanks. I'm so glad to get those links. I noticed "tropicaltidbits.com" on those graphics when they were posting them to storm2k so I went over there looking for them and couldn't find them.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Sorry,  Linda.  When I replied to you I thought you were giving me the animated graphics.  Those are the ones I couldn't find.  Like this (posted to storm2k)...

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 15 HKaUZNl

2seaoat



IT AIN'T HAPPENING!! I can't believe you're getting suckered in by Mr. Know-It-All. Are you kidding me, Bob?? Tell me you're kidding.

I think you said the same about your self outing on the forum......but.....but.....but......Mr. Know it all was right again......suckered.....that is not a proper poker term. However, in this case there actually is science available for those who want to learn.....but heck Bob was dealt a pair of Kings.......I have a pair of threes.....we should all know that the game ends pre flop.

2seaoat



Sorry, Linda. When I replied to you I thought you were giving me the animated graphics. Those are the ones I couldn't find. Like this (posted to storm2k)...


Clue.....hit the button that looks like a triangle.....shazaaaaaam......animation.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:Sorry,  Linda.  When I replied to you I thought you were giving me the animated graphics.  Those are the ones I couldn't find.  Like this (posted to storm2k)...


Clue.....hit the button that looks like a triangle.....shazaaaaaam......animation.

I didn't know that.  They didn't teach that in those armpit schools designed by the Allman Brothers.

2seaoat



Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Johnny Cash. Now there was a dumb southern redneck for you. Couldn't hold a candle to those Illinois singers.

2seaoat



Stay focused Bob.....Texas.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Texas. The scene of the worst national disaster in U.S. history.

2seaoat



Texas. The scene of the worst national disaster in U.S. history.


Rub it in......I voted for him twice.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

If you voted for him the second time, then you have no room to criticize my vote for anyone.
But I applaud you for having the gumption to admit it.

2seaoat



I openly admit my mistakes.......always have......but as Linda knows....they are so few and far between......I think it piszes people off. Texas.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:I openly admit my mistakes..  

So if the storm doesn't go to Texas, you'll admit you were wrong?

This I gotta see.  lol

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

latest posts on the storm2k thread...

I'm definitely waiting on the forecast N and then NE movement. I know that based on model input that it is the most likely solution. But I'm more old school. The forecast depends on a very early season trough (like the one that picked up Charley on '04). But I think the storm is a little further south than the original forecast, and it's my understanding (am I wrong??) that some of the components that make up the model ensembles still cling to a solution where the trough by-passes the storm and riffing begins to build back in along the NE Gulf Coast. Also the storm is not so well defined at this time, making it somewhat less susceptible to the upper level influences of an approaching trough. So, I'll wait to see the actual pick-up, or to see if model consensus begins to weaken.

With that thinking in mind which way would that alter your track?

First of all, I have to say again that the present model forecasts are definitely most likely. But if they don't pan out, I think you would have to assume increased ridging along the Fl Gulf Coast, allowing the system to move first WNW and then maybe between WNW and NW to near the upper Texas coast, perhaps a more northerly component near landfall to near the TX-La border. That would be the alternate scenario, I think.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 15 205801

Sal

Sal

RealLindaL wrote:
Sal wrote:I'm not worried yet, but I am prepared.

Are you in a flood zone, Sal?

Well, I live in FLA ...

... but no, the area where we reside is not prone to flooding.

dumpcare



I saw that post and if the trough does not pick it up then I say between NO and Destin.  The only way I see it anywhere near Tx is if there isn't any troughs coming down from the N or NW and this time of year that is too much to ask for. Since you've been reading the boards that 9 has been one of the hardest to forecast in sometime.

92L coming of Africa



Last edited by ppaca on 8/29/2016, 9:21 pm; edited 1 time in total

dumpcare



Sal wrote:
RealLindaL wrote:
Sal wrote:I'm not worried yet, but I am prepared.

Are you in a flood zone, Sal?

Well, I live in FLA ...

... but no, the area where we reside is not prone to flooding.

Neither was Gulf Breeze proper until April 30th 2014 and then I lost a car, everything in my screen room and everything under 2.5 ft in my garage.

Good luck if it comes that way.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

ppaca wrote:
Sal wrote:
RealLindaL wrote:
Sal wrote:I'm not worried yet, but I am prepared.

Are you in a flood zone, Sal?

Well, I live in FLA ...

... but no, the area where we reside is not prone to flooding.

Neither was Gulf Breeze proper until April 30th 2014 and then I lost a car, everything in my screen room and everything under 2.5 ft in my garage.

Good luck if it comes that way.

Was that when we had more than 20 inches of rain in one day?

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

If the models and the NHC forecast track holds true, I think it will need to start turning by tomorrow.

Sal

Sal

ppaca wrote:
Sal wrote:
RealLindaL wrote:
Sal wrote:I'm not worried yet, but I am prepared.

Are you in a flood zone, Sal?

Well, I live in FLA ...

... but no, the area where we reside is not prone to flooding.

Neither was Gulf Breeze proper until April 30th 2014 and then I lost a car, everything in my screen room and everything under 2.5 ft in my garage.

Good luck if it comes that way.

Thanks.

If it comes this way, we are as prepared as we should be.

If it's really bad, we'll just leave.

It's just stuff.

dumpcare



Bob wrote:
ppaca wrote:
Sal wrote:
RealLindaL wrote:
Sal wrote:I'm not worried yet, but I am prepared.

Are you in a flood zone, Sal?

Well, I live in FLA ...

... but no, the area where we reside is not prone to flooding.

Neither was Gulf Breeze proper until April 30th 2014 and then I lost a car, everything in my screen room and everything under 2.5 ft in my garage.

Good luck if it comes that way.

Was that when we had more than 20 inches of rain in one day?

Yes

dumpcare



Bob wrote:If the models and the NHC forecast track holds true,  I think it will need to start turning by tomorrow.

You may be right.

RealLindaL



Bob wrote:
2seaoat wrote:Sorry,  Linda.  When I replied to you I thought you were giving me the animated graphics.  Those are the ones I couldn't find.  Like this (posted to storm2k)...


Clue.....hit the button that looks like a triangle.....shazaaaaaam......animation.

I didn't know that.  They didn't teach that in those armpit schools designed by the Allman Brothers.

LOL Bob, you're such a stitch.   Sorry I wasn't here earlier but am glad Seaoat had it figured out (bet he just loved seeing both the Euro and GFS still in agreement on the current track).

Anyway, play around with those two websites and you'll find all sorts of enhancement & tricks, including being able to stop the animation, not only by clicking on the play/pause button, but by selecting a time (no. of hours out) you'd like to look at.   Just be sure, when you first open the site, to give it time to load all the data for as many hours out as it's going to show for that particular run (watch those time squares on the upper left as they all load).

Hope I'm not confusing you.  If so, just ignore me.

RealLindaL



Sal wrote:
If it's really bad, we'll just leave.

It's just stuff.

Spoken like a wise man indeed.  

Will hope you don't have to make that decision.  Fingers crossed.

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