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Internal Combustion Blues (Thread for You Electric Car Owners....)

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ZVUGKTUBM

ZVUGKTUBM

Tesla's Secret Weapon
http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/investing-in-the-tesla-nasdaq-tsla-gigafactory/4519

This article talks about the new "Gigafactory" battery factory that Elon Musk is building in California. It will produce 500,000 car batteries per year, and will drive down the cost of owning a plug-in hybrid.

The article says that by 2020, the micro-hybrid (start-stop internal-combustion engine) will become the preferred drive train in automobiles.  No more wasteful idling in traffic....... Your car will turn off when you stop at a traffic light, and restart when it is time to go again.

But, the internal combustion engine is going the way of the horse carriage in this century. By 2017, Tesla will offer its Model III; a plug-in hybrid with a 200 mile range that will cost $35K. This will be a game-changer; especially as oil continues its gradual, but assured climb in price.

$8-$10 per gallon gasoline is not far-fetched. I think that once America crosses the $5 per gallon threshold and gets over the psychological shock that will come with it, the door will be open for the price to continue to climb. The only reason we are not at $10 per gallon gas now is we have found 100 billion+ additional barrels of oil in America's shale formations--enough to carry us forward another 30 years or so. Oil from shale and from deepwater ocean areas is prohibitively expensive to extract--that is why you will never see $25 per barrel oil again--the easy to extract stuff is no longer abundant.

The article lauds the Toyota Prius. I know you folks that own one are sold on it. You are ahead of the herd. Electric cars ARE the future.

http://www.best-electric-barbecue-grills.com

knothead

knothead

Interesting and intriguing article reflecting what is on the horizon for us. What I did not understand Z was the reference to potential future price increases which begs the question: Five years ago gasoline was approximately $1.00 per gallon LESS than today even though supply has increased and demand has decreased, WHY?
Thanks for posting, good article . . . .

ZVUGKTUBM

ZVUGKTUBM

Five years ago gasoline was approximately $1.00 per gallon LESS than today even though supply has increased and demand has decreased, WHY?

Two reasons. (1) dollar inflation--do not believe the inflation numbers presented by our government. They are understated by a significant margin.

(2) Supply has greatly increased and demand has decreased; however the cost of extracting that new-found supply is huge. The technology used to extract oil from shale deposits and ultra-deepwater off shore locations is super-expensive to employ. This means the price of oil will permanently stay high.

A third factor is the fact that much of the world's remaining oil deposits are located in areas where geopolitical strife appears to be the norm. Iraq; west Africa; now northeast Africa; Iran. So, if ISIS were to cause Iraq's current contribution to world production of 3.5 million barrels per day to fall-off the market, it would definitely be a force to push the price higher.

By around 2025, look for the price to increase even higher as current OPEC member Saudi Arabia moves ever closer to becoming a net oil importer, vice exporter. Their tank is going to run dry; they know it--but do not want YOU to know it yet.

In 2010, the CEO of Brazil's Petrobas stated that the World needed to find a new Saudi Arabia every 3 years to meet expected future demand. That is not going to happen. What America needs to do is use the 100+ billion barrels of shale oil it holds as a bridge to a solar-powered future. Let there be no doubt that the age of petroleum as an affordable fuel-source comes to an end within the 21st Century.

When it becomes cheaper to own and operate an EV versus one powered by gasoline, the switch from internal combustion power will happen. I think gasoline must scrape the $10 per gallon mark for this to happen, but happen it will. There will be grumbling from the masses, and those of a certain ideology will totally blame progressives for their high gasoline bills. Their blame will be misplaced, as it will lie squarely with geology alone. The sooner America embraces an energy policy that recognizes this, the better off we will be. The oil companies will always make money, as they continue to drill for the very expensive oil that remains. We just need to get over the fact that it is wasteful (and polluting) to burn oil as fuel--in one of the books I read by notable Princeton emeritus/petroleum geologist Kenneth S. Deffeyes, he said one day Americans will look back and be aghast at how we burned petroleum as fuel, when it has so many other important uses. This book was written before the shale-oil revolution took its stride in America, and he was thinking out loud about how we should preserve Iraq's 143 billion barrels for the non-fuel uses petroleum was used for, and move away from the gasoline/diesel-powered internal combustion engine for powering our transportation.

http://www.best-electric-barbecue-grills.com

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