Hurricane Isaac

I was 20 when Camille hit. And when Frederick hit ten years later I remember saying to myself "the wind feels about the same strength here as it did for Camille".
That was even though the center of Camille was about 60 miles further away from us here.

Ya'll may no longer remember but coincidentally Camille hit Mississippi the same day Woodstock was happening (August 17).
Two weeks later I went to New Orleans' version of Woodstock on August 31.
The whole Mississippi gulf coast was still closed off then. We had to detour and go around it. The detour was about 25 miles north of the coast. And the thing I'll always remember seeing is the trees. Even 25 miles north of the coast, when you got to where the center of the hurricane had come through almost whole forests full of trees were all lying on the ground.

The damndest thing about Camille was the wind speed at the center as it made landfall. Nobody really knows what that figure was for certain because
all the wind measuring apparatus on the ground blew away.
But there is this one report that may give us some insight into that...

Late on August 17, a reconnaissance flight was forced to end its mission early due to a damaged engine. Before it left the storm, the crew recorded a pressure of 909 hectopascals (26.8 inHg) and estimated surface winds at 190 mph (305 km/h), while Camille was located about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of the Mississippi River Delta.[3] There were no subsequent Hurricane Hunter flights, but it is estimated the hurricane maintained much of its intensity.

If that 190mph figure is correct, that's a wind speed that is only 17 mph less than that of an F4 tornado (the 2nd most powerful class of tornadoes).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille#Meteorological_history

This picture is even a little prettier than the last one you posted, Eric.



THE TRACK GUIDANCE MADE AN EASTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THIS WAS LED BY THE GFS...WHICH CHANGED TO A TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE NOW ON THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...
SHOWING A TRACK ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS
MODELS. THERE REMAINS A SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 48
HR. THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF
SHOW A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

The intensity forecast at landfall is still holding steady at 85 mph (cat 1)

If the track stays east of us by at least just this much and the intensity is cat 1, we will barely even feel this one, wind or water.

[img][/img]

im more worried about the tornados that pop up from these things.

but my worries as becoming less now that i ahve had 3 beers

ive decided to have a party and enjoy life as I really cant change anything....

no what I mean vern?

hey, what happened to all the ensemble members? Theres only one now, and its out for me and then you. yommma or bob, are yall a ensemble member fucking with us?

[img][/img]

Okay here's some more good news. Take a look at this chart and notice that the GFS (which is the same model track in Chrissy's post above) is one of the models which has the best track record for accuracy...



And the good news is the GFS (red line on this map) is now predicting the most easterly track for the storm...

This is the projected path for ECMWF, which is statistically the most reliable for the early models:

Dammit when I wake up this morning both the ECMWF and the GFS have shifted slightly west again when it makes the landfall up here. This is just too close for comfort.
And it now it looks like the thing may not track over Cuba but just skirt beside it and that's not good either.

Also the storm is big in size like ivan and katrina and not small like dennis. So the power outages will probably be over a wider area.

But in any case we need to remind ourselves of how inaccurate this forecast turned out to be.

I will tell yall this and I dont know why my city is freaking out so soon, we are under a tropical storm AND hurricane watch right now. Our city has already put these huge storm shutters on all the buildings and people from carolina are already here to help clean up. talk about proactive.

The news here last night said even if its 50 miles or 200 miles off shore we will get at least sustained winds of 65 mph. It span is large.

so after I get off work today im going to the library to get that book PB recomemned incase I loose power. if the library is open today. hmm

anyway, I hope you guys do not get hit and all of you are safe.

What city are you in, Chrissy?

Bob wrote:What city are you in, Chrissy?

http://www.capecoral.net/en-us/visitor.aspx

practically on pine island, very close

http://www.pineislandfl.com/

now you have my central location.

Chrissy8 wrote:

Bob wrote:What city are you in, Chrissy?

http://www.capecoral.net/en-us/visitor.aspx

practically on pine island, very close

http://www.pineislandfl.com/

now you have my central location.

I was just down in Naples in February.

Bob wrote:

Chrissy8 wrote:

Bob wrote:What city are you in, Chrissy?

http://www.capecoral.net/en-us/visitor.aspx

practically on pine island, very close

http://www.pineislandfl.com/

now you have my central location.

I was just down in Naples in February.

I was in Naples in Feb. I dont like Naples. Its boring, I like it better up here. Naples has got to have the worlds largest population of bitches on the planet. There are 2 kinds of people there, bitches with money and bitches who will stab you in the back for money. and I grew up there as a kid and I still dont like it.

Chrissy8 wrote:

I was in Naples in Feb. I dont like Naples. Its boring, I like it better up here. Naples has got to have the worlds largest population of bitches on the planet. There are 2 kinds of people there, bitches with money and bitches who will stab you in the back for money. and I grew up there as a kid and I still dont like it.

And a lot of geezers too. A WHOLE lot. lol

p.s. and "geezer" got nothin to do with age. I'm old too. But a geezer is a geezer. lol

Bob wrote:

Chrissy8 wrote:

I was in Naples in Feb. I dont like Naples. Its boring, I like it better up here. Naples has got to have the worlds largest population of bitches on the planet. There are 2 kinds of people there, bitches with money and bitches who will stab you in the back for money. and I grew up there as a kid and I still dont like it.

And a lot of geezers too. A WHOLE lot. lol

p.s. and "geezer" got nothin to do with age. I'm old too. But a geezer is a geezer. lol

Yes I know. I was hopin my youngest daughter would catch her one of those rich geezers so I could retire, but she had to go and marry a canadian instead

Hold on, what is your definition of a geezer?

You'll know it when you're late for work and get behind one!

A couple things about the 10AM forecast are not in our favor.

"THERE IS A SPREAD IN POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FINAL LANDFALL POINT".

"CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF"

"72H 28/1200Z 28.5N 85.5W 85 KT 100 MPH" (landfall)

Last night's forecast was 85 mph at landfall.

BETWEEN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.. Thank God they have it narrowed down. Now I can quit/start worrying.......

If you look at that last model map, the problem is the *#*$*'ing thing aint going over land. The core of it is going straight through the middle of the Florida straits. It's now going to be over water for almost a thousand miles headed toward us. We may see them have to increase the intensity forecast and maybe significantly. I remember when Hurricane Charley was coming in to the west coast of Florida in 04. That sucker quickly intensified to cat 4 and they had not been forecasting that.

The hurricane (Charley) turned north-northeastward and accelerated toward the southwest coast of Florida as it began to intensify rapidly; dropsonde measurements indicate that Charley's central pressure fell from 964 mb to 941 mb in 4.5 hours. By 10 am, the maximum winds had increased to near 125 m.p.h., and three hours later had increased to 145 m.p.h. - category 4 strength.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/#charley

Charley was this areas ivan.

I have a stinkin gut feeling about this cane, im hopin its just that pickle I just ate.

The 2pm forecast update still has the center of the forecast track going through Okaloosa.



The forecasters start to lose confidence in their predicting as the storm moves into the central and northern gulf.
They see weather patterns which they're convinced will eventually change the northwestwardly path to a more northern one. But the uncertainty comes in as to when that will start to impact on the direction the hurricane goes.
If it starts earlier then the hurricane will come in somewhere east of us. But if that starts later then it will come in west of us.

And the intensity forecast is always uncertain. The current technology is better able to predict the path of a hurricane than predict what it's intensity will be over time.