Hurricane Isaac

Dear Precinct Leaders:

Both the Commissioner and I have been in touch with our Emergency Operations Manager and will be receiving updated information as it becomes known.

As of this moment, the latest forecast from the National Weather Service has Tropical Storm Isaac tracking East of Pensacola. This means that, again as of the latest forecast, Panama City Eastward will be in the crosshairs of Isaac. If this forecast remains there will be some minor storm surge from wind and rain from the outer bands. Additionally, the latest forecast indicates a slowing movement on the storm. In essence, it is to early to tell what T.S. Isaac will do. So, preparation is most certainly advisable. Please don’t take Isaac lightly. If we are lucky enough to dodge a bullet by having Isaac impact East of us, we will most likely have rain. Our ground is already saturated as we are about 13 inches above normal rainfall.

The Escambia County Emergency Operation Center has not been activated at this point. However, we will be called in for a briefing tomorrow afternoon. If activation becomes necessary, it will most likely not be until Monday. If Isaac reaches hurricane status by the time it hits the Panhandle it will most likely be a category 1, or category 2. We need 15 hours of lead time to order evacuation.

In my traveling around today, I didn’t get the impression that a lot of people were that concerned about Isaac. Again, please take this storm seriously and prepare for the worst. Remember, The First 72 Is On You.

We will continue to keep you posted as additional information becomes known. We would ask that you share the information with your neighbors.

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to contact me on my cell phone at (850) 554-2177.

Please be prepared.

Dean Kirschner

There are two track models which the weather dudes mostly pay attention to. The GFS (produced in the U.S.). And the ECMWF (what the tv weathermen call the "European model"). Those two forecast models have the best record of predicting the paths of the hurricanes.

I was just watching TWC and this is what they were saying. The latest GFS run puts the center almost into New Orleans. And the latest ECMWF run puts the center into Mobile Bay. But they were suggesting that the disparity may be because the latest GFS run is more current and when the ECMWF is run again this afternoon, by then it could become more in agreement with the GFS.

But I just found this page which tells us the times of day these models are run (these are in Central Time). And after seeing these times it appears the GFS was last run at 3:30 AM and the ECMWF was last run at 2:20 AM so I don't understand why one is all that much more current than the other but if TWC says it then I guess they know what they're talking about.

GFS - 4X A DAY - 3:30 AM, 9:30 AM, 3:30 PM and 9:30 PM

ECMWF - 2X A DAY - 2:20 AM, 2:20 PM

http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post/Model-Run-Times-5596304

In any case, we will get the next GFS at 9:30 this morning and the next ECMWF at 2:20 this afternoon (and the next NHC official track forecast at 10 AM).

Chrissy8 wrote:

Bob wrote:What city are you in, Chrissy?

http://www.capecoral.net/en-us/visitor.aspx

practically on pine island, very close

http://www.pineislandfl.com/

now you have my central location.

Velly,velly good, Ms chrissy, now ve can send de troll brigade to find you and gif you trouble

Good news!!
At 10AM the center of the NHC track forecast has now moved about 50 miles further west to somewhere around Biloxi/Gulfport.

"THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE...
THE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY 3. SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. "

That's pretty wacky. I wish the two models were more in agreement. But this afternoon when the european model runs again let's hope it starts to mirror the GFS.

I think one thing that's influencing the westward shift in the forecast is that the hurricane is now moving faster (18 mph) than it was. So that weather pattern that will eventually steer it more north won't happen soon enough to turn it into us.

Remember what we talked about at the beginning of this thread (the "margin of error").
Remember back then (Thursday) the forecast track was taking it toward the panhandle. And it looks like that is now proving out to have been "in error" as expected.

BUT, the same margin of error applies to the forecast all the way through to landfall. Here it is...



The latest performance record of it (the 2010/2011 season) is the yellow line.
The hurricane is now less than three days from landfall. That yellow line indicates that at this point the margin of error is only about 55 nautical miles which is 63 statute miles.
So if the center of the forecast is now about 120 miles west of us, that is pretty good news too since the margin of error is now only about half that distance.

Okay I'm getting old and senile. Somehow I got it in my head that days must be 12 hours in length (I was looking at 36 hours for some reason).

Of course three days is not 36 hours, it's 72 hours.

So the actual margin of error at this point is about 120 miles, not 60. Making us now be on the edge of the error cone. Still pretty good news but not as good as if days were 12 hours long (jeebus I need to go back to school).

Bob wrote:Okay I'm getting old and senile. Somehow I got it in my head that days must be 12 hours in length (I was looking at 36 hours for some reason).

Of course three days is not 36 hours, it's 72 hours.

So the actual margin of error at this point is about 120 miles, not 60. Making us now be on the edge of the error cone. Still pretty good news but not as good as if days were 12 hours long (jeebus I need to go back to school).

I just ran across a weather report by Jim Cantore who was so damn excited he was into a rant. He was wild-eyed and probably had an erection due to his eagerness for a big one to hit somewhere.

Yella wrote:

Bob wrote:Okay I'm getting old and senile. Somehow I got it in my head that days must be 12 hours in length (I was looking at 36 hours for some reason).

Of course three days is not 36 hours, it's 72 hours.

So the actual margin of error at this point is about 120 miles, not 60. Making us now be on the edge of the error cone. Still pretty good news but not as good as if days were 12 hours long (jeebus I need to go back to school).

I just ran across a weather report by Jim Cantore who was so damn excited he was into a rant. He was wild-eyed and probably had an erection due to his eagerness for a big one to hit somewhere.

yeah those weather people love this stuff. it is kind of sexy to me too.

but right now im worried about protecting my family, so no sexy for me now.

i was hoping it would hit south fl in its early stages and peter it out.

Yella wrote:

I just ran across a weather report by Jim Cantore who was so damn excited he was into a rant. He was wild-eyed and probably had an erection due to his eagerness for a big one to hit somewhere.

I hope he had his elevator shoes on. Or at least they didn't have a woman beside him who is taller than he is. lol

Bob,
I am appreciating your storm updates. Thanks you

Chrissy8 wrote:Bob,
I am appreciating your storm updates. Thanks you

Thanks for letting me know, Chrissy. I wasn't sure if anybody even cared.

The next big development in this saga will happen at 4 PM.
If we find out that one computer model still has us in the bullseye then we stay in limbo longer and will have to wait to see what happens.
But if what we really want to happen does happen, and that one model stops holding out and joins the others, then I think we can start breathing a sigh of relief.

Damn, Chrissy. The Weather Channel just gave us the answer.
This is really bizarre. Those Europeans are still saying we're in the bullseye.
We could ignore that if it wasn't for the fact that the European model has the best record of track forecasting of all of them.
The best U.S. model (GFS) and the European model (HWCMF) are still more than 300 miles apart with their predictions. I think this is probably unprecedented.

Even though Miami is 150 miles away from the center of the storm they're already having power outages in Miami and Ft. Lauderdale.
And that's when the storm is not even hurricane status yet.
When it makes landfall it will be a lot stronger than it is now. So unless it goes in way west of here, I think it's looking more certain that we're going to have the kind of wind that results in power outages.
And we'll be feeling that wind when the storm passes under us so the power outages will start to happen before landfall.

It takes very little to have a power outage in my area. The trees have grown into the power lines. I talked with guld Power and they did a 1/2 ass trimming job. Very much wind and a lot of lines will be down in this area....

What is with all the fretting and anxiety?

No worrys here.............

Ghost_Rider1 wrote:What is with all the fretting and anxiety?

Well I guess we should recap for those who don't know. There's a hurricane in the gulf and our area is in a hurricane warning. It's something we tend to talk about around these parts when it's happening.

Well I'll be darned. It looks like it's being talked about on your forum too. lol

Bob wrote:

Yella wrote:

I just ran across a weather report by Jim Cantore who was so damn excited he was into a rant. He was wild-eyed and probably had an erection due to his eagerness for a big one to hit somewhere.

I hope he had his elevator shoes on. Or at least they didn't have a woman beside him who is taller than he is. lol

Love it. A guy who thinks he shouldn't be persecuted for something he can't help making fun of a guy for something that guy can't help......

TEOTWAWKI wrote:

Love it. A guy who thinks he shouldn't be persecuted for something he can't help making fun of a guy for something that guy can't help......

Well I'll have to admit that is a little hypocritical on my part. lol

But let's leave it at that and not turn another thread into a queer thread because I'll get the blame for that like always.
When they name a hurricane "Bruce" we'll reassess that decision.

Don't count on those models just yet, a couple are slowing moving back east and it depends on a ridge coming down from the north. I am thinking between biloxi and pensacola.

Quite a bit of info and meteorologists on this site:

www.storm2k.org

reaper1948 wrote:Don't count on those models just yet, a couple are slowing moving back east

Here are the latest model tracks I can find, reaper...



Which ones are moving back east and how can we see em?