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Stimulus Succeeding in Japan - Austerity Failing in Europe

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Nekochan
Sal
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Sal

Sal

Even as Europe fell deeper into what just became its longest recession since World War II, Japan posted an unexpectedly robust growth rate of 3.5 percent under the bold new stimulus measures championed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — precisely the medicine many have urged European leaders to take.

“The elites in Europe don’t learn,” said Stephan Schulmeister, an economist with the Austrian Institute of Economic Research. “Instead of saying, ‘Something goes wrong, we have to reconsider or find a different navigation map, change course,’ instead what happens is more of the same.”

He added, “Angela Merkel is not willing to learn from the Japanese experience,” referring to the German chancellor.

Since taking office in December, Mr. Abe has pushed a three-pronged program — called the three-arrowed approach in Japan — to end two decades of stagnation in the Japanese economy. It involves a strongly expansionary monetary policy, increased fiscal spending and structural changes to improve competitiveness; the first-quarter growth spurt suggests that his approach is already paying off.

Not only have exports improved, the logical outgrowth of a weaker currency, but consumer sentiment and household consumption also have risen. “The real economy is responding,” said Adam S. Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “The last five months, six months, there’s been a mini consumer boom. All the things that people said could never happen in Japan have turned around.”

He added: “Japan’s central bank is supporting recovery, and it’s working. The European Central Bank is supporting stagnation, and it’s working.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/17/world/europe/japan-courts-growth-while-europe-keeps-up-austerity.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0&ref=world

Imagine that ...

... expansionary policy is expansionary and contractionary policy is contractionary.

Whoda thunkit?

Nekochan

Nekochan

Japan has a quickly aging population, a negative birth rate and a very low immigration rate. They have a lot of problems ahead.

Guest


Guest

and their "stimulus" and other interventions have been going on for twenty years.

Nekochan

Nekochan

Yes, Pkr, it has.
Here's a totally different take:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesgruber/2013/03/23/japan-is-the-real-crisis/

The idea behind the strategy is that you create money out of thin air, use that money to buy government bonds off private institutions and others, thereby increasing money supply and possibly inflation. Also, the institutions will start lending the money out, thereby kick-starting spending and the economy. That’s the theory anyhow.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

"increased fiscal spending".

That's a redundancy. Whoever heard of spending that's not fiscal. lol

And yes of course when you borrow money and spend it the immediate effect should be stimulus. If I'm broke and I borrow money I can stimulate my own situation.
But of course there is no mention of the money being spent coming from borrowing. If a space alien read what Sal quoted he would think the money comes from thin air. There is no mention of the source, borrowing, anywhere in that.
And whenever money is borrowed, be it me or a government, the definition of borrowing is that it has to be paid back. And there is a cost to borrowing and that's called interest or "debt service". And that too is left out.

We have now invented what could be called "political arithmetic" and it's replacing the actual laws of arithmetic.
It's like inventing "creation science" in attempt to replace the actual laws of science. lol



Last edited by Bob on 5/21/2013, 2:37 pm; edited 1 time in total

Nekochan

Nekochan

And with a declining working population and a growing elderly population that will need more health care and other government help, there will be fewer working people to pay that debt. It's estimated that the population of Tokyo will be half of what it is now in 100 years.

2seaoat



That is why a vigorous immigration policy in America has sustained economic growth at near record levels over the last 200 years. A recession plus taking 15-20 million people from the above ground economy was bone chilling stupid. When immigration reform hits America, we will have a mini boom.

Nekochan

Nekochan

Seaoat, that's a good point. Immigration is not a bad thing, but it needs to be managed and we need to know who is here and what they're doing. And please don't call me a racist because I'm not suggesting that all illegal Mexicans be deported or that immigration from Mexico be stopped. I think that's unrealistic and is not the answer. But we need to get a handle on our borders.

But Japan....they are such a homogeneous society....immigration is very, very difficult for them. It's just not going to happen.

Again, our diversity is partially what will save us.

Guest


Guest

Nekochan wrote:Seaoat, that's a good point. Immigration is not a bad thing, but it needs to be managed and we need to know who is here and what they're doing. And please don't call me a racist because I'm not suggesting that all illegal Mexicans be deported or that immigration from Mexico be stopped. I think that's unrealistic and is not the answer. But we need to get a handle on our borders.

But Japan....they are such a homogeneous society....immigration is very, very difficult for them. It's just not going to happen.

Again, our diversity is partially what will save us.

ive read some data on japan and this very topic as well. not sure why sal would dig this up, its easily debunked as a success. a simple google on japaan debt results in thousands of RECENT articles.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/21/us-japan-economy-mof-idUSBRE94K05H20130521

I guess sal wants some more stimulus lol

oh and about that diversity stuff. its not diverse if you leave out any groups. think about that.

Markle

Markle

Sal wrote:Even as Europe fell deeper into what just became its longest recession since World War II, Japan posted an unexpectedly robust growth rate of 3.5 percent under the bold new stimulus measures championed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — precisely the medicine many have urged European leaders to take.

“The elites in Europe don’t learn,” said Stephan Schulmeister, an economist with the Austrian Institute of Economic Research. “Instead of saying, ‘Something goes wrong, we have to reconsider or find a different navigation map, change course,’ instead what happens is more of the same.”

He added, “Angela Merkel is not willing to learn from the Japanese experience,” referring to the German chancellor.

Since taking office in December, Mr. Abe has pushed a three-pronged program — called the three-arrowed approach in Japan — to end two decades of stagnation in the Japanese economy. It involves a strongly expansionary monetary policy, increased fiscal spending and structural changes to improve competitiveness; the first-quarter growth spurt suggests that his approach is already paying off.

Not only have exports improved, the logical outgrowth of a weaker currency, but consumer sentiment and household consumption also have risen. “The real economy is responding,” said Adam S. Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “The last five months, six months, there’s been a mini consumer boom. All the things that people said could never happen in Japan have turned around.”

He added: “Japan’s central bank is supporting recovery, and it’s working. The European Central Bank is supporting stagnation, and it’s working.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/17/world/europe/japan-courts-growth-while-europe-keeps-up-austerity.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0&ref=world

Imagine that ...

... expansionary policy is expansionary and contractionary policy is contractionary.

Whoda thunkit?

When and how are they going to pay their debt?

Even Abenomics can't ignore Japan debt
By Charles Riley @CRrileyCNN April 23, 2013: 10:15 AM ET


Japan will soon hit a gross public debt-to-GDP ratio of 230%.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney)

Investors in Japan are cheering the implementation of "Abenomics," a fresh round of government spending and drastic monetary easing designed to end 15 years of deflation.


The gambit, the brainchild of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is already having an effect. The yen has depreciated sharply and stocks are at multi-year highs. The IMF has endorsed the plan and Japan has largely avoided charges of currency manipulation.


But some economists are warning that Japan would be wise to attack its rising debt levels with similar vigor by hatching a plan to cut welfare benefits and raise taxes in the medium term.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/23/news/economy/japan-debt-abenomics/index.html

I take it that you do not understand that Greece, Portugal, Italy Spain and other member of the Euro cannot print their own money.

Sal

Sal

Markle wrote:

I take it that you do not understand that Greece, Portugal, Italy Spain and other member of the Euro cannot print their own money.

Ahem ...

... yes, I'm keenly aware of that.

Are you?

Margin Call

Margin Call

Markle wrote:

I take it that you do not understand that Greece, Portugal, Italy Spain and other member of the Euro cannot print their own money.

I take it you don't understand that the European Central Bank is printing money for these countries.

Margin Call

Margin Call

Oopsies.....

Japan’s Nikkei dives 7.3% in spectacular U-turn

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tokyo-stocks-soar-as-sydney-seoul-retreat-2013-05-22?dist=beforebell

"Thursday’s slump came after a surge in Japanese government bond yields, which forced the Bank of Japan to offer 2 trillion yen ($19 billion) in funds to calm investor nerves. The central bank announced the fund-supplying operation after 10-year JGB yields soared to their highest level in more than a year, citing “the unreasonable increase” in volatility."

Sal

Sal

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Margin Call wrote:Oopsies.....

Japan’s Nikkei dives 7.3% in spectacular U-turn

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tokyo-stocks-soar-as-sydney-seoul-retreat-2013-05-22?dist=beforebell

"Thursday’s slump came after a surge in Japanese government bond yields, which forced the Bank of Japan to offer 2 trillion yen ($19 billion) in funds to calm investor nerves. The central bank announced the fund-supplying operation after 10-year JGB yields soared to their highest level in more than a year, citing “the unreasonable increase” in volatility."

<sarcasm and smartass'ism and confrontational'ism and rhetorical'ism off>
<purely a request for clarification on>

The language of finance sometimes is difficult for me to comprehend.
Please explain to me (in your own words) how this plays into the theme of the thread. Is what has happened here providing support for Sal's contention that the stimulus is succeeding? Or is it providing an argument against that?

Guest


Guest

2seaoat wrote:That is why a vigorous immigration policy in America has sustained economic growth at near record levels over the last 200 years. A recession plus taking 15-20 million people from the above ground economy was bone chilling stupid. When immigration reform hits America, we will have a mini boom.

Stimulus Succeeding in Japan - Austerity Failing in Europe Images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRj4xYBJ1779lWNS8scKY5VzUFXjVBd8QerqXVnJFf2oawiETY

You're right... And when we make true immigration reform that is fair to all the people of the world by demanding that 20 legals (half of which will come from SE Asia) be allowed to come here for every 1 amnesty (that people like you want to grant as a special privilege to a select minority group who did something illegal) we will be on our way.

*****CHUCKLE*****

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPE4OCeKt2k

Very Happy

Margin Call

Margin Call

Bob wrote:
Margin Call wrote:Oopsies.....

Japan’s Nikkei dives 7.3% in spectacular U-turn

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tokyo-stocks-soar-as-sydney-seoul-retreat-2013-05-22?dist=beforebell

"Thursday’s slump came after a surge in Japanese government bond yields, which forced the Bank of Japan to offer 2 trillion yen ($19 billion) in funds to calm investor nerves. The central bank announced the fund-supplying operation after 10-year JGB yields soared to their highest level in more than a year, citing “the unreasonable increase” in volatility."

<sarcasm and smartass'ism and confrontational'ism and rhetorical'ism off>
<purely a request for clarification on>

The language of finance sometimes is difficult for me to comprehend.
Please explain to me (in your own words) how this plays into the theme of the thread. Is what has happened here providing support for Sal's contention that the stimulus is succeeding? Or is it providing an argument against that?

The first cracks in Japan's central planning are starting to show. The stock market is a good indicator of confidence in the economy and a 7.3% decline and high volatility do not reflect ongoing confidence. Has Abenomics failed so soon? Dunno...we'll see.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

thanks, MC

Guest


Guest

Damaged Eagle wrote:
2seaoat wrote:That is why a vigorous immigration policy in America has sustained economic growth at near record levels over the last 200 years. A recession plus taking 15-20 million people from the above ground economy was bone chilling stupid. When immigration reform hits America, we will have a mini boom.

Stimulus Succeeding in Japan - Austerity Failing in Europe Images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRj4xYBJ1779lWNS8scKY5VzUFXjVBd8QerqXVnJFf2oawiETY

You're right... And when we make true immigration reform that is fair to all the people of the world by demanding that 20 legals (half of which will come from SE Asia) be allowed to come here for every 1 amnesty (that people like you want to grant as a special privilege to a select minority group who did something illegal) we will be on our way.

*****CHUCKLE*****

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPE4OCeKt2k

Very Happy

........................................................

Go fuck your sister.

Guest


Guest

Red Kneckerson wrote:
........................................................

Go fuck your sister.

Stimulus Succeeding in Japan - Austerity Failing in Europe Images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ4UVel80CapOj2fV6hqHCVUrPvJex-QSi-88ngQCe-dLDV00Mijw

It looks like your father and grandfathers for a few generations back have been doing that to their sisters.

*****CHUCKLE*****

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovQmxEunack

Twisted Evil

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