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Texas becomes tossup, RealClearPolitics declares

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Telstar

Telstar

Thank you Donboy.


The political tracking site RealClearPolitics, which collects and averages polls in every state, declared Sunday that Texas is now a tossup in the presidential election.

The site previously classified the traditionally red state as leaning toward GOP nominee Donald Trump. But with the release of CBS tracking poll Sunday showing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton down just 3 points in the Lone Star State.


The RCP average of polls showed Trump ahead of Clinton by 4.8 points on Sunday.




http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/302414-texas-becomes-tossup-realclearpolitics-declares

2seaoat



The experts were saying it would by 2020 before the Democrats in a Presidential election could make it close because of changing demographics............damn this is a game changer. Bernie's revolution is getting closer.

othershoe1030

othershoe1030

Somebody's dreaming. Nate Silver shows Texas about 90% going to Trumpster and 10% for Hillary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

Telstar

Telstar

East Texans discuss potential of Texas turning blue as early voting begins

TYLER, TX (KLTV) -
Poll numbers released by Real Clear Politics show only a few percentage points separate the Democratic and Republican vote in Texas. They are now classifying Texas as a toss-up state.

Right now, they show Trump slightly ahead of Clinton.

In every election since 1996, the separation between the candidates was double digits, with the Republicans coming out on top. But does that mean Texas could turn blue this year?

The last time a Democratic nominee won Texas was in 1976, when Jimmy Carter declared victory.

Beverly Brooks with the Smith County Democratic Party thinks it could happen.

“I've never been a firm believer that Texas is a red state. I believe Texas is a non-voting blue state,” she said.

And she said many of those democratic voters are coming to the polls this year.

“Particularly in the minority community, there needs to be a motivation for getting out to vote, and I think Trump has provided that motivation. I also think there needs to be a motivation oftentimes for women, and I think for them it was a combination of the sexist comments and the racist comments,” she explained.

But Smith County Republican Party Chair Brent Thompson is confident more Republicans are coming to the polls, which he believes will keep Texas red.

“The excitement for a career politician and the turnout in that regard, I don't see that for people to vote that's never voted before,” Thompson said.

“The policies of Mr. Trump, if you get past the flamboyance of this election, I think when you dig into the actual policy issues, Mr. Trump's policies fit better with Texas viewpoints,” he added.

We’ve been following the movement to turn Texas blue for years.

Back in 2013, Battleground Texas was working to simply get more people registered.

“One of the things we have seen in the other states across the country is that with investment over a long period of time, getting the new people registered, making sure people know exactly how to vote and where. You really can change elections in a state,” Jenn Brown told us in 2013.

Read More: The Blue Movement: Battleground Texas striving to turn elections competitive

And more people have signed up to vote this year, a record number across the state. Many of those voters headed to the polls Monday. Smith County saw 1,500 in just the first three hours.

Some voters we talked to felt the turnout would end up preventing Texas from turning blue.

“Not with this turnout. I've never seen turnout like this,” Scott Ary said.

“I think the numbers are not polling as high as they should. I think it's going to be a lot better turnout on conservative and be a solid red state when it ends,” he added.

But others felt more voters would lead to more votes for Democrats.

“I think the larger turnout will swing it to blue. And that's what I'm hoping for,” Yvonne Thrash said

“I think that Texas is long overdue to see the reality of what's happening and the need to go vote,” she added.



http://www.kltv.com/story/33466308/east-texans-discuss-potential-of-texas-turning-blue-as-early-voting-begins

RealLindaL



othershoe1030 wrote:Somebody's dreaming. Nate Silver shows Texas about 90% going to Trumpster and 10% for Hillary.

Just to clarify for anyone who may misunderstand and/or doesn't read the linked story, that means Silver calculates there's a 90% chance that Trump will win -- not that 90% of the vote will go to Trump.

Still, yes, this does seem to give the lie to the "tossup" theory. Like so many other things in this election, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Telstar

Telstar

RealLindaL wrote:
othershoe1030 wrote:Somebody's dreaming. Nate Silver shows Texas about 90% going to Trumpster and 10% for Hillary.

Just to clarify for anyone who may misunderstand and/or doesn't read the linked story, that means Silver calculates there's a 90% chance that Trump will win -- not that 90% of the vote will go to Trump.

Still, yes, this does seem to give the lie to the "tossup" theory. Like so many other things in this election, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.




In two weeks we will all know for sure.

othershoe1030

othershoe1030

RealLindaL wrote:
othershoe1030 wrote:Somebody's dreaming. Nate Silver shows Texas about 90% going to Trumpster and 10% for Hillary.

Just to clarify for anyone who may misunderstand and/or doesn't read the linked story, that means Silver calculates there's a 90% chance that Trump will win -- not that 90% of the vote will go to Trump.

Still, yes, this does seem to give the lie to the "tossup" theory. Like so many other things in this election, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Thanks for clarifying what I was trying to say! You expressed it exactly; I was sloppy. This morning Nate shows Texas likely to be in Trump's column at 86% and going to Hillary at 14%. He refreshes his forecasts throughout the day. He's been very accurate in the past so I trust his numbers although he did miss the Trump nomination as did everyone else.

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