The NHC predicts two things. Where the hurricane will go and how intense it will be.
Since intensity is the thing they're the weakest on, let's stick to that.
This is the latest intensity forecast for Tropical Storm Fred (10 PM Central on 8/30).
What we'll do is follow this thing and see how close they get it to being right.
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
Fred has been maintaining strong convection in its CDO, and
microwave data show a well-defined inner core. Subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates have not increased over the
past several hours, however. The current intensity estimate is 60
kt, which is slightly above the most recent ADT values from
UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the tropical
cyclone. The system should remain over marginally warm sea surface
temperatures with moderate vertical shear for the next day or so,
and sounding data from Sal in the Cape Verde Islands indicate that
the Saharan Air Layer is not very prominent ahead of Fred. Given
these conducive factors in the short term, the storm is likely to
strengthen into a hurricane overnight. By 36 hours, vertical shear
is forecast to increase significantly and a weakening trend should
be underway by that time. Late in the forecast period, model
guidance shows very dry low- to mid-level air affecting Fred with
the shear remaining strong. This should result in the cyclone
degenerating to a depression by the end of the period.