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Okay, seaoat, let's test out your theory about hurricane forecasting.

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You say it's no better than randomly throwing darts at a dartboard.

The NHC predicts two things.  Where the hurricane will go and how intense it will be.
Since intensity is the thing they're the weakest on,  let's stick to that.

This is the latest intensity forecast for Tropical Storm Fred (10 PM Central on 8/30).  
What we'll do is follow this thing and see how close they get it to being right.

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015


Fred has been maintaining strong convection in its CDO, and
microwave data show a well-defined inner core.  Subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates have not increased over the
past several hours, however.  The current intensity estimate is 60
kt, which is slightly above the most recent ADT values from
UW-CIMSS.  Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the tropical
cyclone.  The system should remain over marginally warm sea surface
temperatures with moderate vertical shear for the next day or so,
and sounding data from Sal in the Cape Verde Islands indicate that
the Saharan Air Layer is not very prominent ahead of Fred.  Given
these conducive factors in the short term, the storm is likely to
strengthen into a hurricane overnight.  By 36 hours, vertical shear
is forecast to increase significantly and a weakening trend should
be underway by that time.  Late in the forecast period, model
guidance shows very dry low- to mid-level air affecting Fred with
the shear remaining strong.  This should result in the cyclone
degenerating to a depression by the end of the period.

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Late in the forecast period, model
guidance shows very dry low- to mid-level air affecting Fred with
the shear remaining strong, but the dart hit mid thigh on the donkey map. This should result in the cyclone degenerating to a depression by the end of the period.


I told you......

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Bob wrote:  Given
these conducive factors in the short term, the storm is likely to
strengthen into a hurricane overnight.
 By 36 hours, vertical shear
is forecast to increase significantly and a weakening trend should
be underway by that time.
 


Okay,  the first prediction (the part in red) has come true.  Tropical Storm Fred has now become Hurricane Fred.

We'll now wait to see what happens with the 2nd part of the forecast (the part in blue).

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Major Cape Verde-type hurricanes of the past

Year -- Name -- Peak Category

1899 1899 Hurricane San Ciriaco 4
1900 Galveston Hurricane of 1900 4
1926 1926 Miami Hurricane 4
1928 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane 5
1938 New England Hurricane of 1938 5
1947 1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane 5
1957 Hurricane Carrie 4
1958 Hurricane Cleo 5
1960 Hurricane Donna 5
1964 Hurricane Cleo 4
1966 Hurricane Faith 3
1966 Hurricane Inez 4
1979 Hurricane David 5
1979 Hurricane Frederic 4
1980 Hurricane Allen 5
1985 Hurricane Gloria 4
1988 Hurricane Gilbert 5
1989 Hurricane Hugo 5
1992 Hurricane Andrew 5
1995 Hurricane Luis 4
1996 Hurricane Bertha 3
1996 Hurricane Edouard 4
1996 Hurricane Fran 3
1998 Hurricane Bonnie 3
1998 Hurricane Georges 4
1999 Hurricane Floyd 4
1999 Hurricane Gert 4
2000 Hurricane Alberto 3
2000 Hurricane Isaac 4
2001 Hurricane Felix 3
2001 Hurricane Erin 3
2002 Hurricane Lili 4
2003 Hurricane Fabian 4
2003 Hurricane Isabel 5
2004 Hurricane Frances 4
2004 Hurricane Ivan 5
2004 Hurricane Karl 4
2005 Hurricane Emily 5
2006 Hurricane Gordon 3
2006 Hurricane Helene 3
2007 Hurricane Dean 5
2008 Hurricane Bertha 3
2008 Hurricane Ike 4
2009 Hurricane Bill 4
2009 Hurricane Fred 3
2010 Hurricane Danielle 4
2010 Hurricane Earl 4

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Freddie is dead........dart hit the donkey map in the ankle joint.

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HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015


The sea surface temperatures along the path of Fred are beginning
to decrease, however, the vertical shear is expected to remain quite
low for another 12 hours or so. Little change in strength is
expected today. By Tuesday, Fred will be over SSTS of around 26C
and southwesterly shear is forecast to increase. This should cause
gradual weakening, and a further increase in shear and a drier, more
stable air mass should cause a faster rate of decay after 36 hours.
The tropical cyclone is now forecast to become a tropical depression
in about 4 days, and degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.

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Three cat 4 hurricanes in Pacific.....they blew the forecast on Hawaii.....of course.

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2seaoat wrote:Three cat 4 hurricanes in Pacific.....they blew the forecast on Hawaii.....of course.

That would be Hurricane Ignacio.  How did they "blow" the forecast?

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Wolf wolf.....went North.....nada....good waves on the North Shore....

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2seaoat wrote:Wolf wolf.....went North.....nada....good waves on the North Shore....

That's the kind of soundbite response we get from far right-wing politicians and 9-11 truthers.  lol

So let's emulate bds and present just the facts,  maam.

Here's what you're referring to.

This is the track forecast when Ignacio was about six days away from landfall (had it struck the big island).  As you can see,  the forecast puts the center of the cone through the big island making for a direct hit.  And as you point out,  the hurricane actually went a little northward of that forecast track and missed Hawaii.



Now,  here's the forecast when the hurricane was about 5 days out.  
Unlike the six-day out forecast,  the center track for that forecast IS exactly where the center of the hurricane eventually went.
And every other track forecast following that one is also spot on...



Here's what you're overlooking,  seaoat.  The NHC doesn't put out 6-day track forecasts and doesn't do it intentionally.  Why?  Because the NHC itself tells us the margin of error is too great before 5 days out.  That's why they stick to 3-day and 5-day forecasts.
And the particular storm you referred to proves them to be wise in making that decision when we see the 5 day out forecast and all the ones after that proved to be right on the money.
So the moral to that story is,  don't start panicking if that center line goes through Pensacola when the storm is still 6 days out.   And neither would a Hawaiian do that either if he had any sense.



Last edited by Bob on 9/1/2015, 12:05 am; edited 1 time in total

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Donkey ear on Hawaii......dart missed.

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2seaoat wrote:Donkey ear on Hawaii......dart missed.

Okay. If you think that's actually a sensible response for what we discuss around here, I'm going to go along with it. lol
From now on, when you offer an opinion about anything in forum discussions, I'm going to give responses just like that. lol

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From now on, when you offer an opinion about anything in forum discussions, I'm going to give responses just like that. lol

I am sorry....I thought I gave a Bob response.....lol.

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Seaoat: "What you don't understand is, President Obama has decreased the deficit from $480 billion last year to $420 billion this year and we lifelong republicans are celebrating that".

Bob:
"Darts and donkey ears".

lol

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Now that made a great deal of sense, but I think the deficit will actually be reduced by more this year........

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Bob bump.

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I do miss him. He was always fun. What a loss. sunny

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2seaoat wrote:I do miss him.  He was always fun.  What a loss.  sunny




Yup.

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[quote="2seaoat"]I do miss him.  He was always fun.  What a loss.  sunny [/
quote]

AMEN COUNT ME MISSING HIM AS WELL!!

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knothead wrote:
2seaoat wrote:I do miss him.  He was always fun.  What a loss.  sunny [/
quote]

AMEN COUNT ME MISSING HIM AS WELL!!

Add my name to the list of those who miss good ol' Bob. He was a peach and half.

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RealLindaL wrote:
knothead wrote:
2seaoat wrote:I do miss him.  He was always fun.  What a loss.  sunny [/
quote]

AMEN COUNT ME MISSING HIM AS WELL!!

Add my name to the list of those who miss good ol' Bob.   He was a peach and half.



Exactly.


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Because the NHC itself tells us the margin of error is too great before 5 days out. That's why they stick to 3-day and 5-day forecasts.

Error is too great........thank you for the obvious........every dart thrower knows the same. Who gets F'd and dies this time?

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