http://dailycaller.com/2017/06/01/china-is-sticking-to-the-paris-agreement-in-name-only-their-plans-show-a-much-different-intent/
China’s pledged to “peak” greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. What’s implied here is that China will increase emissions in absolute terms during that time.
China basically promised to follow its already expected development track, where emissions are expected to level off between 2025 and 2030.
But China said they would reduce emissions per unit of economic output 60 to 65 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, right?
Yes, but China is only promising to continue an economic trend that’s been occurring since they’ve industrialized.
China had already cut emissions per unit of output nearly 34 percent below 2005 levels before Paris went into effect in 2016. What’s interesting is its output pledge is only half the rate of reductions in recent years.
China can reduce its emissions per unit of output while increasing overall emissions — that’s what matters in terms of global warming. It’s almost like they are gaming the whole Paris agreement.
China’s emissions are expected to grow nearly 32 percent through 2040, according to projections from the Energy Information Administration. The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate projected Chinese emissions increasing 34 percent over 2012 levels by 2030.
Most of this increase will come from coal-fired electricity. China pledged to use more natural gas, renewables and nuclear power, but coal is expected to provide the lion’s share of electricity in the country for decades to come.
Reports suggest China has scrapped plans for one hundred new coal-fired power plants, but that’s largely because its economic growth is slowing down and their population is aging. Older populations tend to have fewer industrial jobs.
Yet, China’s new five-year plan would “raise coal-fired power capacity from around 900 gigawatts last year to as high as 1,100 gigawatts by 2020,” which is “more than the total power capacity of Canada,” according to The Wall Street Journal.
China is also fueling coal-fired electricity production around the world. The country is part of a joint venture with Pakistan “to spend around $15 billion over the next 15 years to build close to a dozen coal power plants of varying sizes around the country,” Reuters reported.