Initial jobless claims 4-week average falls 11,000, continuing downward trend

The outlook for the June employment will get a boost from today's initial jobless claims data which show a 6,000 dip in the June 14 week to 312,000. The 4-week average, at 311,750, is down 11,000 from mid-month May. The mid-month readings compare the sample weeks of the government's monthly employment report.

Improvement remains very convincing for continuing claims which are reported with a 1-week lag. Continuing claims for the June 7 week fell 54,000 to a new recovery low of 2.561 million. The 4-week average, down 21,000 to 2.601 million, is also at a recovery low as is the unemployment rate for insured workers, holding at 2.0 percent.

There are no special factors affecting today's report which points to steady, incremental improvement in the labor market.