Damnit, seaoat, those ignorant morons are throwing darts at the donkey again.

Texas better take shelter.

Yea but based on the forecast, I'm putting the center of landfall somewhere between Destin and Corpus so I've already started dismantling the patio and stowing everything away. I figure it will probably hit sometime tomorrow morning.

This will be a good test of the various tracking models, seaoat.

From the wiki page for the ECMWF ("european model")...

"One example was the model's prediction of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 making landfall on the East Coast of the United States seven days before it actually happened.[3] It also predicted the intensity and track of the November 2012 nor'easter, which impacted the east coast a week after Sandy."

As you've seen, the ECMWF is now forecasting that Joaquin will stay well off the coast and go off into the Atlantic.

However, the NHC forecasters are not buying this. At this point, they're putting the center of their track forecast west of that and onto the mainland.

We'll see how this all shakes out.