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2015 Q2 GDP (second estimate): +3.7%

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boards of FL

boards of FL

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=467023&cust=mam&year=2015&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top


The second-quarter did show a big bounce after all, up at a revised annualized growth rate of 3.7 percent which is 5 tenths over the Econoday consensus and just ahead of the high estimate. The initial estimate for second-quarter GDP was 2.3 percent. This report points to better-than-expected momentum going into the current quarter.

Consumer demand was strong with personal consumption expenditures at a 3.1 percent rate led by an 8.2 percent rate for durables, a gain that was tied to vehicle spending. Residential investment was very strong, at plus 7.8 percent, as was nonresidential fixed investment which, boosted by an upward revision to structures, came in at plus 3.2 percent. Inventories contributed to second-quarter growth as did improvement in net exports. Final demand proved very solid, at plus 3.5 percent. The GDP price index, unlike many other price readings, is showing some pressure, at 2.1 percent and just above the Fed's general policy goal.

The economy's acceleration is now much more respectable from the first quarter when growth, at only 0.6 percent, was depressed by heavy weather and special factors. Splitting the difference, first-half growth came in a bit over 2 percent which, as it turns out, is right in line with the similar performance of 2014 when first-quarter growth, again depressed by severe weather, fell 2.1 percent followed by a 4.6 percent surge in the second quarter. Growth in the third quarter last year was 4.3 percent which would be a very good performance for this third quarter.

The impact of today's report on Fed policy for September's FOMC is likely to be minimal. Focus at the upcoming meeting will be on the state of the global financial markets and, very importantly, the strength of next week's employment report for August.



Last edited by boards of FL on 8/27/2015, 1:17 pm; edited 1 time in total


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boards of FL

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http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm


2015 Q2 GDP (second estimate): +3.7% Showimage


Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's
economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price
changes -- increased at an annual rate of 3.7 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to the
"second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the first quarter, real GDP increased
0.6 percent.

     The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for
the "advance" estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.3
percent.  With the second estimate for the second quarter, nonresidential fixed investment and private
inventory investment increased.  With the advance estimate, both of these components were estimated to
have slightly decreased (see "Revisions" on page 2).

     The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed
investment, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment.  Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

     The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected an upturn in exports, an acceleration
in PCE, a deceleration in imports, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration
in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in private inventory
investment, in federal government spending, and in residential fixed investment.

      Real gross domestic income (GDI) -- the value of the costs incurred and the incomes earned in
the production of goods and services in the nation's economy -- increased 0.6 percent in the second
quarter, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent (revised) in the first.  The average of real GDP and
real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI,
increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in the first quarter.

_____

     FOOTNOTE.  Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified.  Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized.  "Real" estimates are
in chained (2009) dollars.  Price indexes are chain-type measures.

This news release is available on BEA's Web site.
_____

     The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent,
compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.

     Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 3.4 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the
first.

     Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the goods and services produced by the nation's
economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production -- increased 5.9 percent, or
$252.7 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $17,902.0 billion.  In the first quarter, current-dollar
GDP increased 0.8 percent, or $33.3 billion.


Revisions

     The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected upward revisions to
nonresidential fixed investment, to private inventory investment, to state and local government
spending, and to PCE and a downward revision to imports.  For information on revisions, see "The
Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."




                                       Advance Estimate  Second Estimate
                                    (Percent change from preceding quarter)

Real GDP...............................       2.3               3.7
Current-dollar GDP.....................       4.4               5.9
Real GDI...............................       ---               0.6
Average of GDP and GDI.................       ---               2.1
Gross domestic purchases price index...       1.4               1.5


For the first quarter of 2015, real GDI was revised up 0.1 percentage point, from 0.3 percent to
0.4 percent.




                                             Corporate Profits


Profits from current production

     Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and
capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) increased $47.5 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of $123.0 billion in the first.

     Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $33.9 billion in the second quarter, in
contrast to a decrease of $23.4 billion in the first.  Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations
increased $16.5 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $70.5 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of
profits decreased $2.9 billion, compared with a decrease of $29.0 billion.  This measure is calculated as
the difference between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world.  In the
second quarter, receipts increased $6.0 billion, and payments increased $8.9 billion.

     Taxes on corporate income increased $28.3 billion in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of $5.5 billion in the first.  Profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj increased $19.2 billion, in
contrast to a decrease of $128.4 billion.

     Dividends increased $1.0 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $6.3 billion
in the first.  Undistributed profits increased $18.2 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $134.7 billion.  Net
cash flow with IVA -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- increased $28.0
billion, in contrast to a decrease of $135.5 billion.

     The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of
fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in
the national income and product accounts.  The IVA decreased $78.1 billion in the second quarter, in
contrast to an increase of $45.7 billion.  The CCAdj increased $8.0 billion, in contrast to a decrease of
$208.1 billion.


Gross value added of nonfinancial domestic corporate business

     Real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations decreased in the second quarter.  Profits per
unit of real value added increased, reflecting an increase in unit prices that was partly offset by an
increase in unit labor costs; unit nonlabor costs were unchanged.

                                          *          *          *

     BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov.  By visiting
the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.

                                          *          *          *

                          Next release -- September 25, 2015 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
                          Gross Domestic Product:  Second Quarter 2015 (Third Estimate)
                          Corporate Profits:  Second Quarter 2015 (Revised Estimate)


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Wordslinger

Wordslinger

Why is it not one of the forum's conservative bunch will praise or even recognize this progress? I guess they're too busy reading Breitbart ...

ZVUGKTUBM

ZVUGKTUBM

Wordslinger wrote:Why is it not one of the forum's conservative bunch will praise or even recognize this progress?  I guess they're too busy reading Breitbart ...

Standby for a counter-thread from semi-demented poster Markle.... He can't stand good economic news while Obama remains POTUS.

http://www.best-electric-barbecue-grills.com

boards of FL

boards of FL

Can we at least get a "LIES!!!" or "GOVERNMENT MATH!!!" or "It's a CONSPIRACY!!!"?


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Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

boards of FL wrote:Can we at least get a "LIES!!!" or "GOVERNMENT MATH!!!" or "It's a CONSPIRACY!!!"?

Not from me. But I will give you this...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economys-second-quarter-went-174640633.html

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Wow, I just noticed something about that page I linked you to.

The headline is telling us the economy has gone from "solid to stellar".
But then right below that headline they present a photo to convey the same message. And I'll be damned if it's not showing us Mexicans picking fruit.

All I can react with are the standard retorts in a case like this. Those being I shit you not and you just can't make this shit up! lol

ZVUGKTUBM

ZVUGKTUBM

Bob wrote:
boards of FL wrote:Can we at least get a "LIES!!!" or "GOVERNMENT MATH!!!" or "It's a CONSPIRACY!!!"?

Not from me.  But I will give you this...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economys-second-quarter-went-174640633.html

You forgot to list the title of the article from your link, Bob:

'The US economy's second quarter went from solid to stellar'

http://www.best-electric-barbecue-grills.com

boards of FL

boards of FL

Fine. I'll do it for them.

LIES!!111 ALL LIES!111 IT'S ALL A CONSPIRACY!!!1111 THE REAL GDP THING IS, LIKE, -600%!!!11 THE DOLLAR IS COLLAPSING!!111 MARTIAL LAW IS COMING!1111

BENGHAZI!!!11111111111111111111111


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TEOTWAWKI

TEOTWAWKI

Things may look rosy but it wouldn't hurt to stack a few extra cases of beer in the pantry Boards...you never know...

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