New Poll Shows Democratic Incumbents in Big Trouble

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/10/new-poll-shows-democratic-incumbents-big-trouble

Today brings a new poll from Democracy Corps titled [url=http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/959/dcor bg graphs 102413 v5.pdf]"Revolt against DC and the Republican Congress."[/url] And it's true: their polling shows that even in Republican districts, the GOP's brand has taken a beating.
But once you get past the generic questions and ask about approval/disapproval of actual members of Congress, the picture turns sharply. I've combined two charts to show what happens when you ask people in battleground districts about their own representatives.  (click on link for chart)
In Democratic districts, net incumbent approval has plummeted by 11 points, from +8 approval to +3 disapproval. In Republican districts, incumbent approval has gone down only 4 points. You see the same results when they ask a question about warmth of feeling toward incumbents: It's down 7 points in Republican districts and 9 points in Democratic districts.
This isn't good news for Democrats. It's true that attitudes toward the Republican Party have taken a bigger hit than attitudes toward the Democratic Party, but attitudes toward actual incumbents are exactly the opposite. And in elections, that's what matters.
POSTSCRIPT: There's also a very weird result (on slide 20) showing that voters in Republican districts are more eager for their representatives to work with President Obama than voters in Democratic districts. I have no idea what to make of this. In fact, it's so strange that it makes me wonder if there's something wrong with this poll.

I predict right now that the Democrats will hold the senate and the Republican senate primary races will be suicidal for the party. It is too early to say if the house will go Democratic. I think next October when Americans will be signing up for a working health care system will determine much of the election in the house. The penalty phase and the anger it will evoke is my understanding going to be for 2014, and that means before April 2015 people will see their first penalty. The mid term November election will be over by then, and if 7-10 million Americans are no longer burdened by preexisting health care concerns and have portability independent of employment.......the house races will be swayed, and conversely if the roll out continues to be slow, the house will be held by Republicans. However, a year ago the analyst were saying the senate would go Republican, and that is not going to happen.