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If you're going to play the half billion dollar Powerball for tomorrow's drawing here's a tip.

+3
Sal
2seaoat
Hospital Bob
7 posters

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Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Don't buy a quick pick ticket. Pick your number combination and pick only numbers higher than 31.
It's an established fact that a huge number of lottery ticket buyers choose birthdates and anniversary dates and other dates. And of course all those dates will contain numbers from 1 to 31.

You have no control over the odds of any winning ticket being chosen because that is of course determined only by random chance.
BUT YOU CAN influence your return on investment. And you do that by trying to hold a ticket with a number combination that is less likely to be purchased by other ticket buyers. If you choose numbers higher than 31 and your ticket wins, you'll be less likely to share the jackpot with other winning tickets.

2seaoat



I buy the ticket for a moment of brevity and a moment of what if.....I personally would be overwhelmed with the responsibility of a half billion dollars.....I would not give it back.....but I could never regain what was, and to that end.....I am never upset when my numbers do not win......a cheap thrill.....a moment of thought.....and a smile.....really nothing more.

Sal

Sal

Bob wrote:
BUT YOU CAN influence your return on investment.

I can't wrap my head around the concept of lottery ticket as an investment.

lol.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

post deleted because I got my links screwed up.



Last edited by Bob on 11/27/2012, 10:00 pm; edited 2 times in total

Sal

Sal

Bob wrote:
Sal wrote:
I can't wrap my head around the concept of lottery ticket as an investment.

lol.
These folks wrapped their heads around the concept and profited by doing so...

http://www.powerball.com/powerball/pb_map.asp

The term "return on investment" applies to gambling as well as Wall Street.
As just one example, slot machines in a gambling casino will typically return to you about 75 cents of every dollar invested.

I'm cooking spaghetti sauce right now but if you'll check this thread later I'll write a post which explains how the expected ROI improves as lotto jackpots keep rolling over and how when they roll over enough they can actually give you an expected return on investment of more than 100% of the money invested (wagered).

I know, Bob.

I was just kidding, 'cause when the odds are 175 million to one, it might be a better investment to flush your two bucks down the toilet and hope an oil geyser shoots through your bathroom floor.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

To explain how this works let's use tomorrow night's Powerball drawing as an example.


Yes, as you've pointed out, the odds of having a winning ticket in the Powerball are 175 million to one.
The next piece of data we need to know is how many tickets will be sold between last Saturday night's drawing and tomorrow night's drawing.
We know the final jackpot for last Saturday night's drawing was roughly $325 million.
We don't know what the jackpot amount will be by the end of ticket selling tomorrow night, but the current estimate is it will be $500 million.
The difference between $500 million and $325 million ($175 million) represents HALF of the amount of money wagered. That's because about half of it is skimmed off the top by the "house" (the various state governments).
So that means about double that amount ($350 million) will be spent on tickets for tomorrow night's drawing. BUT, since Powerball tickets cost $2 instead of the usual $1 for a lotto ticket, that gives us a figure of 175 million tickets sold for this week's drawing. So since the odds of winning are 175M to 1 and the number of tickets sold is also 175M, we can then expect there to be 1 winning ticket for tomorrow night's drawing.

If the jackpot is 500 million, then a winning ticket in Florida will net $375 million over a 30 year period...

http://www.usamega.com/powerball-jackpot.asp

We now know...

1. The odds of your ticket winning are 175 million to one
and
2. The odds are that you will not be sharing the win with another winning ticket
and
3. The annuitized over 30 years net payout to you is $375 million
and
4. The cost of buying your ticket is $2

SO, Since each ticket costs $2 we multiply 2 by 175 million equals 350 million, we then divide that figure into the net payout amount ($375 million)
and that gives our Powerball ticket an expected return on investment of 107.1%. Meaning that for every ticket we purchase we will expect to get a return of 107% of the amount we wagered.

But of course that's only if the odds of having one winning ticket prove to be true. If a second winning ticket (or even a third) is sold then our actual return on investment is back in the red again.
HOWEVER, that's why I pointed out what I did in the first post. You can help improve your chances of not sharing the jackpot by choosing less popular number combinations.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Bob wrote:
These folks wrapped their heads around the concept and profited by doing so...

http://www.powerball.com/powerball/pb_map.asp


I'm sorry, Sal. In that earlier reply to you I put the wrong link in and the wrong link made my whole reply make no sense.
I meant to put this link in...

http://articles.wdbj7.com/2012-03-30/virginia-lottery_31263333

TEOTWAWKI

TEOTWAWKI

LOTTERY is a tax on the mathematically challenged....

Lisa12



TEOTWAWKI wrote:LOTTERY is a tax on the mathematically challenged....

Excellent quote!!!

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

TEOTWAWKI wrote:LOTTERY is a tax on the mathematically challenged....
Ordinarily that's true. Ordinarily a lotto ticket is the worst sucker bet of all that will after taxes give you back from 35 to 50 cents on your dollar.
But not always. After the jackpot has rolled over as many times as the current Powerball jackpot has, a bet on it now is a better wager than anything in a Biloxi casino.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

If you don't understand that then maybe you'll understand this.

Which of these two is a better wager for you?

1. You pay $1 to cut the cards with someone and the winner gets 50 cents.
or
2. You pay $1 to cut the cards with someone and the winner gets $1.07

Now before you tell me you don't like either bet (neither do I so don't bother), that's not the point. The point is that the lottery is like these two bets. Most of the time it's like bet No 1. But on rare occasions it's like bet No. 2.

And when it is like bet No. 2 why not take one $2 chance at becoming worth over $300 million?

Margin Call

Margin Call

TEOTWAWKI wrote:LOTTERY is a tax on the mathematically challenged....

But the jackpot winner is an instant "job creator". Smile

Floridatexan

Floridatexan

Sal wrote:
Bob wrote:
Sal wrote:
I can't wrap my head around the concept of lottery ticket as an investment.

lol.
These folks wrapped their heads around the concept and profited by doing so...

http://www.powerball.com/powerball/pb_map.asp

The term "return on investment" applies to gambling as well as Wall Street.
As just one example, slot machines in a gambling casino will typically return to you about 75 cents of every dollar invested.

I'm cooking spaghetti sauce right now but if you'll check this thread later I'll write a post which explains how the expected ROI improves as lotto jackpots keep rolling over and how when they roll over enough they can actually give you an expected return on investment of more than 100% of the money invested (wagered).

I know, Bob.

I was just kidding, 'cause when the odds are 175 million to one, it might be a better investment to flush your two bucks down the toilet and hope an oil geyser shoots through your bathroom floor.

LOL

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Okay I have a confession to make to clear my conscience.
After all that preaching I did about picking certain numbers, I just stopped for some beer and didn't bother filling out the lottery form, bought a quick pick.
Fuck it, it's a sucker bet either way. lol

Sal

Sal

Bob wrote:Okay I have a confession to make to clear my conscience.
After all that preaching I did about picking certain numbers, I just stopped for some beer and didn't bother filling out the lottery form, bought a quick pick.
Fuck it, it's a sucker bet either way. lol

Beer, ... now there's an investment on which you're certain to get a good return.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Sal wrote:
Beer, ... now there's an investment on which you're certain to get a good return.[/font]
Sal, if my ticket comes in I'm gonna buy you a six-pack.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

I've heard them Powerball odds compared to just about everything today.
One talking head said "you have less chance of winning the powerball than "getting stung 55 times by killer bees".
Forget 55, I'd say if you can get stung even 30 times by killer bees you're lucky to be around for number 31. lol

TEOTWAWKI

TEOTWAWKI

The winning numbers in tonight's big Powerball drawing: 5 - 16 - 22 - 23 - 29, Powerball: 6

How's that nothing < 31 working out ?

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Two winning tickets sold.

Found this interesting discussion about what happens to winners...
____________________________

"I had to adapt to this new life," said Sandra Hayes, 52, a former child services social worker who split a $224 million Powerball jackpot with a dozen co-workers in 2006, collecting a lump sum she said was in excess of $6 million after taxes. "I had to endure the greed and the need that people have, trying to get you to release your money to them. That caused a lot of emotional pain. These are people who you've loved deep down, and they're turning into vampires trying to suck the life out of me."

The single mother kept her job with the state of Missouri for another month and immediately used her winnings to pay off an estimated $100,000 in student loans and a $70,000 mortgage. She spent a week in Hawaii and bought a new Lexus, but six years later still shops at discount stores and lives on a fixed income — albeit, at a higher monthly allowance than when she brought home paychecks of less than $500 a week.

"I know a lot of people who won the lottery and are broke today," she said. "If you're not disciplined, you will go broke. I don't care how much money you have."

Lottery agencies are keen to show off beaming prize-winners hugging oversize checks at celebratory news conferences, but the tales of big lottery winners who wind up in financial ruin, despair or both are increasingly common.

There's the two-time New Jersey lottery winner who squandered her $5.4 million fortune. A West Virginia man who won $315 million a decade ago on Christmas later said the windfall was to blame for his granddaughter's fatal drug overdose, his divorce, hundreds of lawsuits and an absence of true friends.

The National Endowment for Financial Education cautions those who receive a financial windfall — whether from lottery winnings, divorce settlements, cashed-out stock options or family inheritances — to plan for their psychological needs as well as their financial strategies. The Denver-based nonprofit estimates that as many as 70 percent of people who land sudden windfalls lose that money within several years.

"Being able to manage your emotions before you do anything sudden is one of the biggest things," said endowment spokesman Paul Golden. "If you've never had the comfort of financial security before, if you were really eking out a living from paycheck to paycheck, if you've never managed money before, it can be really confusing. There's this false belief that no matter what you do, you're never going to worry about money again."

David Gehle, who spent 20 years at a Nebraska meatpacking plant before he and seven ConAgra Foods co-workers won a $365 million Powerball jackpot in 2006, used some of his winnings to visit Australia, New Guinea and Vietnam. He left ConAgra three weeks after he won, and now spends his time woodworking and playing racquetball, tennis and golf.

But most of his winnings are invested, and the 59-year-old still lives in his native Lincoln. He waited for several years before buying a $450,000 home in a tidy neighborhood on the southern edge of town.

"My roots are in Nebraska, and I'm not all that much different now than I was before," Gehle said. "I'm pretty normal. I never was the kind of guy who went for big, expensive cars or anything like that. I just want something that runs."

In the first year after he won, Michael Terpstra would awaken many nights in a panic. Had he slept in? Was he late to work the night shift?

"At times I'd wake up and this would all seem like a dream," the 54-year-old said. "I'd have to walk around the house and tell myself, I did win. I'm not working anymore, and I do live here. I didn't get drunk, break into someone's house and go to sleep. This is where I'm supposed to be."

His new home is a roomy, two-story house in south Lincoln with a big-screen television and paintings of Jesus on the walls. He no longer uses alarm clocks and spends his days taking his 92-pound black lab, Rocco, on walks.

He was terrified when he first won, convinced that he would lose all of the money and have to return to work. So he lives carefully off the interest from conservative investments, with help from accountants and lawyers. He bought the new house and a truck, but struggles to name any extravagant purchases.

"I can't buy a super yacht. I can't buy a Gulfstream," he said. "Then again, I don't think I'd use either one, so why would I buy one?"

That said, some mega-winners still can't resist the lure of big jackpots, at least not the two-buck chances. On Tuesday, former ConAgra worker Dung Tran, a Vietnamese immigrant, walked into the same Lincoln U-Stop where he purchased the winning ticket six years ago and bought 22 more from the very employee who sold him the first prize-winner, said cashier Janice Mitzner.

"We joked about it," she said. "I told him, 'Wouldn't it be something if you won again?'"

Hayes is also hoping to strike rich again — she bought 10 tickets at a Dirt Cheap liquor store on her way home Tuesday while speaking with an Associated Press reporter. Unlike many big winners, she has kept a visible public profile instead of going underground, appearing on a 2007 reality TV show ("Million Dollar Christmas"), writing an online Life After the Lottery blog and self-publishing a short book, "How Winning the Lottery Changed My Life."

"We have this drawing ... and if somebody wins, God bless them," she said. "They're going to need those blessings."

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57556106/powerball-officials-record-jackpot-has-been-won/

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