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Very good news!
Thanks to big shifts in several key races, Democrats now have a 73 percent chance of winning the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast, and a 72 percent chance according to polls-only. Both those numbers are up by more than 15 percentage points from last week, when the polls-plus model gave them a 56 percent chance and the polls-only model 54 percent.
In our last Senate Update, I noted a growing divergence between our Senate and presidential forecasts. The presidential race had moved quickly towards Democrat Hillary Clinton; the battle for control of the Senate had ticked a bit towards the GOP. But the forecasts have snapped back into closer alignment as Democratic Senate chances have improved.
The thing to remember, though, is that if Illinois and Wisconsin stay safely blue, and Bayh continues to maintain an edge in Indiana, Democrats only need to win two of the other five close races. And they’re now favored (if only slightly in most) in more of those races than Republicans are. You can see why Democrats now have about the best shot of winning back the Senate that they have had all year.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-the-last-week-has-been-very-kind-to-democrats-hopes-for-a-majority/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
Thanks to big shifts in several key races, Democrats now have a 73 percent chance of winning the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast, and a 72 percent chance according to polls-only. Both those numbers are up by more than 15 percentage points from last week, when the polls-plus model gave them a 56 percent chance and the polls-only model 54 percent.
In our last Senate Update, I noted a growing divergence between our Senate and presidential forecasts. The presidential race had moved quickly towards Democrat Hillary Clinton; the battle for control of the Senate had ticked a bit towards the GOP. But the forecasts have snapped back into closer alignment as Democratic Senate chances have improved.
The thing to remember, though, is that if Illinois and Wisconsin stay safely blue, and Bayh continues to maintain an edge in Indiana, Democrats only need to win two of the other five close races. And they’re now favored (if only slightly in most) in more of those races than Republicans are. You can see why Democrats now have about the best shot of winning back the Senate that they have had all year.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-the-last-week-has-been-very-kind-to-democrats-hopes-for-a-majority/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
