Karl Rove gives explanation of why the polls are skewed

2seaoat wrote:I am listening to him on OReilly, and some of the things he is saying are 9% of those polled are Democrats. However, the 2008 election only had 3%. He makes a valid argument how in four years did democrats triple their number? I think he might have something here......but then he flips his chart to Ohio where in 2008 there were 8% democrats yet they had a 9% sample, and now he argues by going back to 2000 when there was only 3%......a light bulb goes off that the brain trust is now trying to convince America that the black vote and Latino vote is going to come out less than 2008......Dick Morris is trying the same argument, and he says that 2008 is a fluke and blacks are not going to come out in 2012.

Right when I started to see some logic, I get what they are doing.....they are using pre 08 numbers to argue that 08 never happened and the large Democratic turn out was a fluke, and therefore the assumption of the polls in Ohio using 9% identified democrats is flawed.....it should go back to 2000 to get a better mean of voter turnout......................................................................


Yep, right when I started to see some logic to Karl's analysis, I realize they are betting on a turn out more like 2000.......hmmmmmmm where is T with a conspiracy theory because it sure looks like some people are counting on voter suppression taking those voters out of play, and a 2000 turn out......not a chance.

Nekochan wrote:I don't know about the black or white or hispanic turnout this time but I do not believe nearly the numbers of young people will turn out to vote this time as they did in 2008.

Floridatexan wrote:

Nekochan wrote:I don't know about the black or white or hispanic turnout this time but I do not believe nearly the numbers of young people will turn out to vote this time as they did in 2008.

If they don't, it will be because of intense voter suppression efforts by GOP governors in key swing states, not because of voter apathy. And I fully expect tampering with election results, both electronically and via disappearing ballots.

Floridatexan wrote:

Nekochan wrote:I don't know about the black or white or hispanic turnout this time but I do not believe nearly the numbers of young people will turn out to vote this time as they did in 2008.

If they don't, it will be because of intense voter suppression efforts by GOP governors in key swing states, not because of voter apathy. And I fully expect tampering with election results, both electronically and via disappearing ballots.

salinsky wrote:Lack of enthusiasm will hurt Romney more than Obama. The haters will turnout, but Obama-hate is not enough to win a general election. Independents and moderate Republicans are turning in droves away from Willard's inept and off-key campaign of no specifics.

Rogue wrote:

Floridatexan wrote:

Nekochan wrote:I don't know about the black or white or hispanic turnout this time but I do not believe nearly the numbers of young people will turn out to vote this time as they did in 2008.

If they don't, it will be because of intense voter suppression efforts by GOP governors in key swing states, not because of voter apathy. And I fully expect tampering with election results, both electronically and via disappearing ballots.

You would then be a conspiracy theorist preparing for defeat then.

Perhaps you and the rest of you did not notice how angry, fed up and disgruntled your young vote was when they were all marching in the streets, sleeping in tents. They are fed up. obama hasnt made thier lives better. there are no jobs and the cost of going to college has gone up.

Not only that, many of these youths have had to move back home with mommy and daddy.

everything im saying is statistically accurate.

No one is supressing votes except yourside on the military votes as usual in OHIO btw...

boards of FL wrote:

salinsky wrote:Lack of enthusiasm will hurt Romney more than Obama. The haters will turnout, but Obama-hate is not enough to win a general election. Independents and moderate Republicans are turning in droves away from Willard's inept and off-key campaign of no specifics.

No specifics? Didn't you watch Ryan and Romney at the RNC? They clearly said that they are going to bring leadership to the White house. They are going to do stuff that will help business prosper. They support business and want America to succeed. They support good foreign policy and putting people back to work. How much more specific could they be?

Nekochan wrote:Over 50% of 18-20 year olds voted in 2008. The Dems will be lucky if 25% of them turn out this Nov.

From the link I posted:

In 2008, polls showed that young people were overwhelmingly supportive of Obama and the Democrats. And they turned out in droves. According to the research group CIRCLE—The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement—which tracks civic engagement among young voters, 51 percent of 18- to-19-year-olds voted that year.

In 2010, polls showed that young people were still supportive of Obama and the Democrats. But only 20.9 percent of them bothered to vote.

boards of FL wrote:They clearly said that they are going to bring leadership to the White house. They are going to do stuff that will help business prosper. They support business and want America to succeed. They support good foreign policy and putting people back to work. How much more specific could they be?

othershoe1030 wrote:

Nekochan wrote:Over 50% of 18-20 year olds voted in 2008. The Dems will be lucky if 25% of them turn out this Nov.

From the link I posted:

In 2008, polls showed that young people were overwhelmingly supportive of Obama and the Democrats. And they turned out in droves. According to the research group CIRCLE—The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement—which tracks civic engagement among young voters, 51 percent of 18- to-19-year-olds voted that year.

In 2010, polls showed that young people were still supportive of Obama and the Democrats. But only 20.9 percent of them bothered to vote.

2010 was an off year election. Voter turn out is always lower for all groups in an off year or non-presidential election. It will be interesting to see the voting statistics after the 2012 election for sure.

othershoe1030 wrote:

Rogue wrote:

Floridatexan wrote:

Nekochan wrote:I don't know about the black or white or hispanic turnout this time but I do not believe nearly the numbers of young people will turn out to vote this time as they did in 2008.

If they don't, it will be because of intense voter suppression efforts by GOP governors in key swing states, not because of voter apathy. And I fully expect tampering with election results, both electronically and via disappearing ballots.

You would then be a conspiracy theorist preparing for defeat then.

Perhaps you and the rest of you did not notice how angry, fed up and disgruntled your young vote was when they were all marching in the streets, sleeping in tents. They are fed up. obama hasnt made thier lives better. there are no jobs and the cost of going to college has gone up.

Not only that, many of these youths have had to move back home with mommy and daddy.

everything im saying is statistically accurate.

No one is supressing votes except yourside on the military votes as usual in OHIO btw...

As for marching in the streets goes, that demonstration was against Wall Street Bankers and the financial sector not against Obama. The bankers caused the problem before he came into office.

They were/are protesting the way the system is set up to favor the 1% while taking money from the rest of us. They were calling attention to the fact that our country has a wealth distribution more like a banana republic than a developed country.

salinsky wrote:Yep, looks like there's no enthusiasm this year ...

Kent -- Morgan Jupina and three of her friends braved darkness and the early-morning cold Sept. 24 to be first in line for the hottest ticket in town.

The Kent State University sophomore and her friends, all residents of the Centennial Court complex, gathered at Risman Plaza at 3:30 a.m. to ensure getting tickets for President Barack Obama's appearance Sept. 26.

"It was freezing. I could not feel my fingers," said Jupina, who waited with her friends for five and half hours before the tickets started being issued at 9 a.m. on a first come, first served basis.

Jupina, Heather Konkle, William Lewis and Breanna Avant were at the head of a line that coiled its way through the center of campus, stretching all the way past the MAC Center before ending at the entrance to the Memorial Gym Annex.

The tickets were all gone by late morning. An Obama campaign spokesperson said that names were being taken for a "wait list," but with no guarantee that additional space would be available.

"This is once in a lifetime," said Heather Konkle. "It's worth it in the end."

She and her friends said they would "do it all over again" Sept. 26.

They planned to set out hours before the president's speech, planned to take place at 5:30 p.m., to get good seats at the MAC Center.

The early birds maintained a somewhat lonely vigil until about 6 a.m., according to Nancy Schiappa, who took her place near the head of the line and then and saw the turnout "go from six or eight people to the hundreds." By 9 a.m., thousands were in line.

Kaishawn Thomas, a Theodore Roosevelt High School senior who is taking classes at KSU, said she got in line at 6:30 a.m. "I want to see Obama," she said, adding that she regretted not being old enough to vote for the president.

Nearby was Janet Kraus of Kent. "I'll bet the Republicans don't like the look of this line," she remarked.

KSU student Emily Campion avoided the line at the campus by going to the Organizing for America office -- the Obama headquarters -- on South Water Street. She arrived at 8:30 a.m. and had her tickets two hours later.

"It was worth the wait," Campion said. "I'm going to be president one day so I thought I should come."

The line there, while relatively shorter than the one at Kent State, stretched all the way to Bowman Drive at one point. At 11 a.m., with volunteers cautioning that the couldn't guarantee a ticket supply, the line still snaked its way along South Water.

Julie Gresser of Streetsboro, a Kent State student, was near the end of the Kent State line with her son, Taygen Nelson, 4. She was hoping to get tickets for both of them.

"I'm here because it's the president of the United States and that's who I hope wins the election," she said.

Obama will be the first president to set foot in Kent in 80 years and the first to have a campaign event there since William Howard Taft in 1912.

By 11 a.m., two hours after Morgan Jupina, Heather Konkle and their friends got their tickets, the line at Kent State continued to stretch from the student center to beyond the MAC Center.

Liz Sorenson of Kent was at the tail end at one point, standing in the shadows of the Memorial Gym Annex. She didn't mind the wait.

"This is the base, right? You have to get people to get up and vote. You have to motivate them," she said.

www.hudsonhubtimes.com/news/article/5217964

Rogue wrote:

Floridatexan wrote:

Nekochan wrote:I don't know about the black or white or hispanic turnout this time but I do not believe nearly the numbers of young people will turn out to vote this time as they did in 2008.

If they don't, it will be because of intense voter suppression efforts by GOP governors in key swing states, not because of voter apathy. And I fully expect tampering with election results, both electronically and via disappearing ballots.

You would then be a conspiracy theorist preparing for defeat then.

Perhaps you and the rest of you did not notice how angry, fed up and disgruntled your young vote was when they were all marching in the streets, sleeping in tents. They are fed up. obama hasnt made thier lives better. there are no jobs and the cost of going to college has gone up.

Not only that, many of these youths have had to move back home with mommy and daddy.

everything im saying is statistically accurate.

No one is supressing votes except yourside on the military votes as usual in OHIO btw...

Rogue wrote:

othershoe1030 wrote:

Rogue wrote:

Floridatexan wrote:

Nekochan wrote:I don't know about the black or white or hispanic turnout this time but I do not believe nearly the numbers of young people will turn out to vote this time as they did in 2008.

If they don't, it will be because of intense voter suppression efforts by GOP governors in key swing states, not because of voter apathy. And I fully expect tampering with election results, both electronically and via disappearing ballots.

You would then be a conspiracy theorist preparing for defeat then.

Perhaps you and the rest of you did not notice how angry, fed up and disgruntled your young vote was when they were all marching in the streets, sleeping in tents. They are fed up. obama hasnt made thier lives better. there are no jobs and the cost of going to college has gone up.

Not only that, many of these youths have had to move back home with mommy and daddy.

everything im saying is statistically accurate.

No one is supressing votes except yourside on the military votes as usual in OHIO btw...

As for marching in the streets goes, that demonstration was against Wall Street Bankers and the financial sector not against Obama. The bankers caused the problem before he came into office.

They were/are protesting the way the system is set up to favor the 1% while taking money from the rest of us. They were calling attention to the fact that our country has a wealth distribution more like a banana republic than a developed country.

That doesnt matter. They are disgruntled and have not gotten satisfactory results from this administration.

I wouldnt count on such a large young vote turnout this time. The enthusiasm is not the same and you know it.

Dreamsglore wrote:

Rogue wrote:

othershoe1030 wrote:

Rogue wrote:

Floridatexan wrote:

Nekochan wrote:I don't know about the black or white or hispanic turnout this time but I do not believe nearly the numbers of young people will turn out to vote this time as they did in 2008.

If they don't, it will be because of intense voter suppression efforts by GOP governors in key swing states, not because of voter apathy. And I fully expect tampering with election results, both electronically and via disappearing ballots.

You would then be a conspiracy theorist preparing for defeat then.

Perhaps you and the rest of you did not notice how angry, fed up and disgruntled your young vote was when they were all marching in the streets, sleeping in tents. They are fed up. obama hasnt made thier lives better. there are no jobs and the cost of going to college has gone up.

Not only that, many of these youths have had to move back home with mommy and daddy.

everything im saying is statistically accurate.

No one is supressing votes except yourside on the military votes as usual in OHIO btw...

As for marching in the streets goes, that demonstration was against Wall Street Bankers and the financial sector not against Obama. The bankers caused the problem before he came into office.

They were/are protesting the way the system is set up to favor the 1% while taking money from the rest of us. They were calling attention to the fact that our country has a wealth distribution more like a banana republic than a developed country.

That doesnt matter. They are disgruntled and have not gotten satisfactory results from this administration.

I wouldnt count on such a large young vote turnout this time. The enthusiasm is not the same and you know it.

You absolutely have it backwards. It had nothing to do w/ this administration.Gawd!

Rogue wrote:

Dreamsglore wrote:

Rogue wrote:

othershoe1030 wrote:

Rogue wrote:

Floridatexan wrote:

Nekochan wrote:I don't know about the black or white or hispanic turnout this time but I do not believe nearly the numbers of young people will turn out to vote this time as they did in 2008.

If they don't, it will be because of intense voter suppression efforts by GOP governors in key swing states, not because of voter apathy. And I fully expect tampering with election results, both electronically and via disappearing ballots.

You would then be a conspiracy theorist preparing for defeat then.

Perhaps you and the rest of you did not notice how angry, fed up and disgruntled your young vote was when they were all marching in the streets, sleeping in tents. They are fed up. obama hasnt made thier lives better. there are no jobs and the cost of going to college has gone up.

Not only that, many of these youths have had to move back home with mommy and daddy.

everything im saying is statistically accurate.

No one is supressing votes except yourside on the military votes as usual in OHIO btw...

As for marching in the streets goes, that demonstration was against Wall Street Bankers and the financial sector not against Obama. The bankers caused the problem before he came into office.

They were/are protesting the way the system is set up to favor the 1% while taking money from the rest of us. They were calling attention to the fact that our country has a wealth distribution more like a banana republic than a developed country.

That doesnt matter. They are disgruntled and have not gotten satisfactory results from this administration.

I wouldnt count on such a large young vote turnout this time. The enthusiasm is not the same and you know it.

You absolutely have it backwards. It had nothing to do w/ this administration.Gawd!

President Barack Obama may have enjoyed celebrity status among young voters in 2008, but a new survey suggests they’re less likely to rock the vote for him in 2012.

Almost half of 18- to 24-year-olds — 48 percent — said in a survey that they would like to see Obama stay in the White House for a second term, compared to 41 percent who would prefer a generic Republican candidate over the president.

This 7-point lead may serve as a warning bell to the Obama campaign, said Robert Jones, the CEO of Public Religion Research Institute, which conducted the poll with Georgetown University’s Berkeley Center

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75357.html#ixzz27j8TgGaH
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75357.html#ixzz27j8Fxep7

mccain only had 30% of the youth vote.

now these numbers are only the ones polled. but really most of em just want vote. and the ones that had to move back home might get pressured to vote like mommy and daddy