http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=467001&cust=mam&year=2015&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
Forget about an October rate hike and maybe forget about a December one too. The September employment report came in weaker than expected on all scores with nonfarm payroll at 142,000, well under the low estimate for 180,000. To seal the matter, downward revisions to the two prior months total 59,000. Average hourly earnings also came in below the low end estimate, at an unchanged reading and a year-on-year rate of 2.2 percent which is also unchanged. And the labor market is shrinking! The labor participation fell 2 tenths to a nearly 40 year low of 62.4 percent.
It should be no surprise, after all the regional and private indications over the past several weeks, that manufacturing is hurting. Payrolls fell 9,000 after falling 18,000 in August. These are job losses that can be blamed on weak foreign markets together with the negative effect of the strong dollar. Mining has also been hurting, the result here of low commodity prices. Payrolls in this industry fell 13,000 on top of August's 22,000 decline.
In contrast to manufacturing, there have been strong signals coming from retail which added 24,000 in September. Professional & business services also rose, up 31,000 which however is half the rate of gain from the spring and early summer.
Weekly hours fell 1 tenth to 34.5 hours in another sign of weakness. Private payrolls rose only 118,000 with government jobs adding a respectable 24,000 share. Another detail on manufacturing is a big 0.6 percent decline in hours that points to contraction for the industrial production report.
It doesn't get much worse than this, at least relative to expectations. This is a shock that however has been hinted at by reports such as Empire State or the Kansas City Manufacturing survey. There will have to be a big bounce in next month's October report to make a rate hike a real possibility at the December FOMC.
Last edited by boards of FL on 10/3/2015, 9:51 am; edited 2 times in total