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What if There Is No Strategy?

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1What if There Is No Strategy? Empty What if There Is No Strategy? 9/5/2014, 1:40 pm

Sal

Sal

Excellent piece ....



There is nobody who has atoned as thoroughly for pumping up C-Plus Augustus's Excellent Mesopotamian Adventure than Peter Beinart, who recently unlimbered the lumber on the prescription for triumph in the Middle East proposed by John McCain and his faithful companion, Huckleberry J. Butchmeup.

"It's a wonderful illustration of the emptiness of much Beltway foreign-policy-speak. McCain and Graham want Obama to act both "deliberately" and "urgently" because they're both happy words. (As opposed to "lethargically" and "rashly," which are nastier synonyms for the same thing.) But when you translate these uplifting abstractions into plain English, you see how contradictory McCain and Graham's demands actually are. You can either demand that Obama not bomb Syria until he's ensured he has a plan likely to win international and congressional support, or you can demand that he bomb as soon as possible. You can't demand both."

What say you? I think only a couple of more months in the wilderness on the grasshopper-and-wild-honey diet and Beinart can come home again.

His piece put into stark relief something I've been turning over in my own mind since things started blowing up in the Levant -- a phrase we can use again, apparently, because the Hitlers du jour have adopted it as their own. I've watched the administration try to cool out the country, and I've assumed that there's a lot going on under the surface. (I certainly hope there is.) Then again, as Beinart points out, the Republican foreign-policy intelligentsia keep coming up with ideas that combine the geopolitical nuance of The Underpants Gnome with the strategic and logistical brilliance of El Mystico and Janet. Which brings us inevitably to the question: what if there is no "plan"? What if there is no strategy America can adopt that will help matters in any serious material way?

Any final military solution would require at least some American ground troops. Any political solution would require us to cut deals with horrible people (Assad in Syria) and/or with our putative allies who divide their time between buying off the savages and using them to try and scare the American people into sending our military back to save their oil-sodden asses. (And, yes, I'm fully fed up with being jerked around by the Qataris and the House Of Saud. Why do you ask?) And, even if we cut the deals, creating five friends and 5,000 more enemies in the process, how are they going to hold? What makes us think that, given our history in the region, we have the credibility to produce a lasting solution to the problem of people who just want to slaughter each other? What if, in the face of medieval savagery in the modern age, America truly is a helpless giant, if not a pitiful one? Can this country face that possibility without losing its mind?

I am not sanguine about the latter possibility. The drums are beginning to sound very loudly, and not just from the right, either. Democratic senators are trying to goose the president into doing...something. (Al Franken's letter sounds like John McCain on herbal tea.) The elite political media is uncrating the Kevlar and soldier hats that it thought it had put away for good. And local media is just going indiscriminately batshit. Up here in Boston, local TV has fastened on a guy who "may be" working with ISIS in Syria. (The man, Ahmad Abousamra, fled after being caught in the sweep that also netted Tarek Mehanna, who was convicted and sentenced to seventeen-and-a-half years in prison, but whose conviction was shaky enough that the Supreme Court will decide later this month to hear his case.) Given the coverage by the local TV drones, to say nothing of our plucky little tabloid, you'd think that Abousamra was in a Howard Johnson's on Route 16, plotting jihad over fried clams. I assume that local TV all over the country is finding its own little "piece" of the current horrors. Examples in comments would be welcome.

Perhaps all we can do is use our strength, and what little influence we have, to prevent humanitarian catastrophes on a case-by-case basis. Perhaps there is no overall solution that we can find. This runs contrary to the thinking that got us through the Cold War, of course, and it rubs up roughly against American exceptionalism, and it gives the Neustadt lie to all that John F. Kennedy imbibed so deeply, that to do nothing is always the worst thing, and that to do something is the truest measure of leadership, bearing burdens and passing torches and all, a philosophy that led even Kennedy down a few dark roads. Ninth-century blood feuds are working themselves out with 21st century weapons. The collective American political memory doesn't encompass anything like this. When these animosities were born in that part of the world, North America was peopled by moundbuilders along the Mississippi River. What if there is no American "plan" that will work, no American"strategy" that will suffice, no act of American "leadership" that will be adequate? What if the only real solution is for these people to decide on their own to stop slaughtering each other? What if the choice comes down simply to joining the bloodshed or not?

The invaluable Andrew Bacevich has been thumping this tub for quite some time now.

"After 9/11, similar mistakes - deference to the official line and to the conventional wisdom ("terrorism" standing in for communism) - recurred, this time with even less justification. The misbegotten Iraq war was one result. Yet even today, events in Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere elicit an urge to "do something," accompanied by the conviction that unless troops are moving or bombs dropping the United States is somehow evading its assigned responsibilities. The question must be asked: Are Americans incapable of learning?"

I shudder to think about the answer to that question.

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/No_Plan

2seaoat



Huckleberry J. Butchmeup

My day has been made. Excellent article.

Floridatexan

Floridatexan


http://www.studygs.net/problem/adaptivedec.htm

Problem solving series
Adaptive Decision Making
Adaptive techniques for solving problems are a combination of logic and common sense, and while not precise, can produce satisfactory solutions.

If you cannot follow the complete problem solving process, use these techniques when you

have little time for research
don't need exhaustive analysis
can accept the risks
can make reversible decisions
Strategies toward adaptive decision making:
Managing by exception: exercise
Managing by exception: text
Work on matters critical to you; leave off matters that are not. Strategizing and prioritizing

Example: You tutor a child in math. You become aware that the family situation is troubled, but you haven't the skills to help. You inform the case manager for their action, but continue to focus on the supporting the child with his/her homework

Decision staggering
Make incremental decisions to achieve an objective and avoid total commitment to a decision you cannot change.

Example: Before installing air-conditioning, try screens, shades, and fans. These alone may do the job. If not, these improvements will still have helped cool the building and increase air-conditioning efficiency if later installed.

Exploration
Use information available to probe for a solution.
Exploring is a modified trial-and-error strategy to manage risk. Unlike a throw of dice, however, it requires a firm sense of purpose and direction. Use this technique to move cautiously in small steps toward a solution.

Example: Doctors avoid committing to a single, incomplete diagnosis of an illness. Through tentative but precise exploration, they determine the cause of an illness and its cure.

Hedging
Spread risk by avoiding decisions that lock you into a single choice if you are not prepared to commit.

Example: astute investors don't "put all their eggs in one basket." They spread risks with a balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, and cash.

Intuition
Create options based on your experience, values, and emotions (your gut feelings and your heart)! While often able to arrive at the truth through intuition, don't rely on it exclusively. It can trigger snap judgments and rash decisions. Use logic first, then your intuition to make the decision "feel" right

Delay
Go slow and/or postpone committing yourself to a course of action
if an immediate decision isn't necessary and there's time to develop options.
Sometimes doing nothing is the best decision; the problem will either go away, conditions will change, the path may become clearer as you reflect on it, or events will change the problem itself.

Delegating decision-making or action to another person or group
Sometimes we take on problems that are not ours,
or that the problem can be solved better by someone else.
One strategy towards delegation is to identify stakeholders of the problem. A stakeholders is a person or group that interest in, or will be affected by, resolution of the problem. (This is a good practice for all decision-making!)
Another consideration for "out-sourcing" a problem's resolution is to consider if your resources will be adequate to the task. Resources are time, money, skills, confidence, etc.

Visioning
Focus on the future to uncover hidden opportunities and options that may resolve the problem.
With options, we make better decisions. Without them, decisions become forced choices.
By finding tomorrow's opportunities and developing options, you can make enduring, quality decisions.

Barriers to effective decision-making
Indecision
Avoiding decisions to escape the unpleasant aspects of risk, fear, and anxiety

Stalling
Refusing to face the issue; obsessive gathering of endless facts

Overreacting
Letting a situation spin out of control; letting emotions take control

Vacillating
Reversing decisions; half-heartedly committing to a course of action

Half measures
Muddling through. Making the safest decision to avoid controversy but not dealing with the whole problem

Meeting challenges:
Problem solving overview | Defining the problem | Gathering information |
Developing/weighing alternatives | Implementing decisions |
Graphic overview of process | Adaptive decision making | Brainstorming |
Managing by exception | Managing stress | Motivating yourself |
Problem based learning | Using analogies in creative problem solving

Sal

Sal

bump

Worth a read ....


Ninth-century blood feuds are working themselves out with 21st century weapons. The collective American political memory doesn't encompass anything like this. When these animosities were born in that part of the world, North America was peopled by moundbuilders along the Mississippi River. What if there is no American "plan" that will work, no American"strategy" that will suffice, no act of American "leadership" that will be adequate? What if the only real solution is for these people to decide on their own to stop slaughtering each other? What if the choice comes down simply to joining the bloodshed or not?

Guest


Guest

Seagoat could dispel that history with two words in an accolade to obama "stunning success". Yea Team... screw history.

2seaoat



Seagoat could dispel that history with two words in an accolade to obama "stunning success". Yea Team... screw history.


Two words? You are nipping at the pain pills again.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Sal wrote:
When these animosities were born in that part of the world, North America was peopled by moundbuilders along the Mississippi River.

That along with "John McCain's sidekick Huckleberry J. Buckmeup" gave me that deep down chuckle I needed for this beautiful Saturday morning.  lol

Guest


Guest

Obama's strategy is the 3rd down long count double reverse flea flicker wishbone formation quick kick...

hoping to draw a flag.

Wordslinger

Wordslinger


Dude and Pdog: Thanks to both of you for your wonderful, incites and political excreta. You are both awesome examples of conservative intellectualism and principles, and the republicans are lucky to have you speaking so persuasively for their causes and opinions.

Come to think of it, we liberals are equally happy you're conservative spokesmen.

Reality.

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