New jobless claims continue to signal solid improvement in the labor market

Though adjustment issues tied to Easter may be at play, unemployment claims nevertheless are signaling very solid improvement in the jobs market. Initial claims came in at a better-than-expected 304,000 in the April 12 week, just under Econoday's low estimate. The prior week, which saw a major break lower, is revised only 2,000 higher to 302,000.

The April 12 week is the sample week for the monthly employment report and the comparison with the March 15 sample week shows a sizable 19,000 improvement. A sample-week to sample-week comparison of the 4-week average, at 312,000 vs 329,500, shows a 17,500 improvement. The latest 4-week average is the lowest of the recovery going back to October 2007.

Continuing claims, which are reported with a one week lag, also show convincing improvement. Continuing claims for the April 5 week fell 11,000 to 2.739 million. The 4-week average is down 33,000 in the week to 2.785 million which is more than 100,000 below the month-ago trend. The unemployment rate for insured workers is at a recovery low of 2.1 percent.

The spring thaw has been giving a sizable lift to economic data, most prominently for jobless claims. Though the question of Easter adjustments is in the background, today's report is certain to lift expectations for the April employment report.