We may see the Federal Reserve begin to wind down its stimulus as early as next month.
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If the trend for jobless claims is any indication, and it is, the August jobs report looks to be solid. Jobless claims fell a very sharp 15,000 in the August 10 week to a new recovery low of 320,000. The Labor Department sees nothing unusual that may be skewing the data. The 4-week average, down 4,000 to 332,000, is also at a recovery low and is more than 10,000 below the month-ago trend to point to tangible improvement in monthly employment conditions.
Continuing claims continue to hover near recovery lows, down 54,000 in the latest available data which are for the August 3 week. The 4-week average, at 2.987 million, is down 38,000 in the week. The unemployment rate for insured workers continues to hold at a recovery low of 2.3 percent.
Federal Reserve officials keep stressing that the beginning of stimulus removal is dependent on the latest data, and today's jobless data will likely firm up expectations that tapering will begin in September.