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Pensacola Discussion Forum » Politics » Final estimate for third quarter GDP: +3.1%

Final estimate for third quarter GDP: +3.1%

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boards of FL

boards of FL

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451309&cust=mam&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm


For its final estimate for the third quarter, GDP got a notable upgrade. Real GDP growth for the third quarter was revised up to 3.1 percent annualized, compared to the second estimate of 2.7 percent annualized and to the advance estimate of 2.0 percent. Second quarter growth was a meager 1.3 percent. The latest number topped market expectations for a 2.8 percent advance.

Demand figures also got a boost. Final sales of domestic product increased 2.4 percent versus the second estimate of 1.9 percent and second quarter growth of 1.7 percent. Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) were revised to 1.9 percent, compared to the second estimate of 1.7 percent and compared the prior quarter's 1.4 percent.

By components, the upward revision to GDP was primarily due to higher estimates for personal consumption, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and government purchases. Imports were bumped down. Cutting into the upward revision were lower estimates for residential investment and inventory investment.

Headline inflation for the GDP price index was left unrevised at an annualized versus 2.7 percent for the second estimate 1.6 percent in the second quarter. The consensus called for a 2.7 percent rise. But when excluding food and energy, inflation pressure is not nearly as strong with the third quarter figure posting at 1.3 percent, matching the prior estimate of 1.3 percent and to the second quarter's 1.4 percent.

Today's revision puts the economy in a little better position for continuing growth-assuming the fiscal cliff issue is resolved.


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boards of FL

boards of FL

Final estimate for third quarter GDP: +3.1% Showimage


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othershoe1030

othershoe1030

In spite of all the foot dragging on the part of the GOP the economy just can't help itself.

Do the wingers still think the books are cooked?

Margin Call

Margin Call

othershoe1030 wrote:In spite of all the foot dragging on the part of the GOP the economy just can't help itself.

That's why the GOP messaging need to be rebuilt, refined and rebooted.

Markle

Markle

On October 31, 2003 this is what your Paul Krugman said about the same 3.1% growth rate.


From the former adviser to ENRON and Socialist darling, of the far, far left, Paul Krugman. This from October 31, 2003. Wow…talk about a different tune today. For reference, the GDP for 2011 was 1.7%. The GDP for the third quarter for 2012 was 3.1% that is less that what is needed to simply break even with the population growth.


Democrats may want to revisit the LiberalOasis interview with Paul Krugman from August 2003, after the last GDP number was released:


LiberalOasis: Second quarter GDP was just revised to 3.1% annual rate of growth. That’s near the point where many economists say job creation will kick in. Does that mean the economy is turning around, and Bush can credit the tax cuts for doing it?


Paul Krugman: Well, it’s quite possible that we will see some positive job growth.


But, I still don’t see anything in there that says we’re going to have jobs growing fast enough to keep up with the growth in the population, let alone make up all the ground that’s been lost.

And the main thing to say is: gosh, if you let me run a 500 billion dollar deficit, I could create a whole lot of jobs. That's roughly equal to the wages of 10 million average workers.


So the fact that we've managed to go from a 200 billion surplus to a 500 billion deficit, while losing three million jobs, is actually a pretty poor verdict on the policy.

http://www.liberaloasis.com/krugman.htm

boards of FL

boards of FL

Ole, Markle. I have to give it to you, man. You pick a message and stick to it through and through. I guess there is something to be said about that. My hat is off to you. You definitely make this world more interesting.


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2seaoat



This give enormous power to the president to take a hard line once we go over the cliff. There will be a precipitous fall in GDP for a couple quarters, but the next upturn will be sustained growth once we have real deficit improvements. So, I do not see the president being in a real compromising mood in January, and sustained growth of 3-4% for a decade is just peachy as we finally start to address our debt, and we make defense cuts.

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