Early voting in North Carolina show a very good trend

In 2012 President Obama came close in North Carolina. Early voting as disclosed by a MSNBC study indicates that Democratic ballots are significantly up from the 2012 election through this date, and Republican ballots are significantly down. Early voting only accounts for 35% of the total vote, so this trend cannot be confirmed until the debates are over, but early voting is getting large democratic turnout, and the number of African American voters who have registered since 2012 has grown by 3% with expected 90 plus percent turnout or early voting. Trump has motivated good people either to stay home, or get out and vote. This is encouraging. Morality may have finally returned to America. Who would ever have thought North Carolina was in play, and with what happened with the police shootings......what black registered voter will stay home........motivated voters who actually vote determine elections.

NH Hillary up by 9%, but only 3% lead in Wisconsin. 263 Hillary to 191 Trump. Trump needs to run the table. I am driving up to Wisconsin to put a few of my signs up. I will put signs up in Florida. Illinois just does not matter and I only got 25 signs, and their lead times will get too long for me to reorder more. I am heading north in October to put signs up at busy intersections. I am not sitting back and watching a sociopath become President. Fortunately in the land of lincoln, most of my Republican friends are reluctant about Trump, but some feel powerless to change the results in Illinois and maybe will not even vote. This almost guarantees that Kirk will lose.

Wall Street journal poll today Clinton up 6% nationwide. Trump has slipped in this poll and he has slipped 1% in negative views while Clinton improved 3%. It appears Trump has been unable to close the gap, and unless he dominates in the debates.

Bill Mcinluff on Chuck todd's program is a Republican pollster who says the 2012 demographics are going to be difficult for Trump to overcome. The concerns for Clinton's health has now returned to the fundamentals which are a steep challenge for any Republican, but particularly difficult for a sociopath.

I saw that today, to me that would seem unfair on either side if they are counting the ballots and releasing that information.

It is public records. I can at any time during early voting go to see who voted in Illinois by going to the County clerk's office. I can see who voted, and I can see what party they belong. In Illinois they put this online. In college I did a study on McGovern voters and Nixon voters in the landslide 72 election and spent days in the clerk's office getting my data. None of it is confidential but open government records. You cannot determine who somebody voted for, but in small precincts when 11 of 12 people voted for Nixon, you can pretty much determine that registered democrats were voting for Nixon and rejected McGovern.

Having been an active Republican and having ran elections, this data is critical. The key to this is about 20% higher turnouts by Democrats in North Carolina early voting and about 10% lower Republican than the same time in 2012.......this is huge. It indicates black voters in North Carolina are motivated for a white candidate, and Republican voters are at this time not voting in the same numbers. The Debates could flip this trend by with the Wall Street Poll, it looks like Clinton is ahead by the same 6% which has been steady from before and after the conventions......starting to look structural.

It is common practice among my experience in the Republican party to check the early votes and then we set up precinct phone banks and call people to remind them to vote. Now in one county where I have known the County clerk for over fifty years and he ran against Denny Haesert predecessor in the primary who died in office and resulted in the speaker of the house being elected put records on line
. Well, he actually had the election division get this data online, and during beta when he had promised to release the data in future elections online, he was feeding precincts with those people who had not voted yet at polling places........now both parties have that access, so I can know at 4pm Jane Doe has not voted.....bam.....Jane gets a call. The ground game wins elections.