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Pensacola Discussion Forum » Politics » 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2%

2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2%

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12015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 12:01 pm

boards of FL

boards of FL

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=467019&cust=mam&year=2015&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm


Heavy weather and the strong dollar took their toll on first-quarter GDP which, at only plus 0.2 percent, came in at the very low end of the Econoday consensus. This compares with an already soft fourth quarter which is unrevised at plus 2.2 percent.

Exports were the heaviest drag on the first quarter reflecting the strong dollar's effect on foreign demand. The heavy weather of the quarter contributed to an outright contraction in business spending (nonresidential fixed investment) and an abrupt slowing in consumer spending (personal consumption expenditures).

Price data, reflecting lower energy prices, are soft with the GDP price index at minus 0.1 percent vs the Econoday consensus for plus 0.5 percent. Prices were also soft in the fourth quarter at an unrevised plus 0.1 percent.

Details include an unwanted surge in inventories tied to lower demand and also possibly to shipment constraints tied to the quarter's West Coast port strike. Imports, likely limited by the port strike, did pull down GDP but to a much lesser extent than the prior quarter (imports are a subtraction in the GDP calculation).

Federal Reserve policy makers, in this afternoon's FOMC statement, may downplay first-quarter weakness as temporary. Nevertheless, the complete lack of punch underway in early second-quarter indicators, together with the softness of the fourth quarter when there were no special factors not to mention the lack of inflationary pressures in the economy, offer plenty of fuel for the doves at the Fed who want to hold off the first signals of a rate increase.


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22015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 3:21 pm

2seaoat



This is great news. The longest stretch of economic growth without a recession continues and the fears of the economy overheating and interest rates being raised by the fed which is great news for my wife and I because three new homes built in 2005 have a variable rate mortgage which is all the way down to 3.75 when they were originally 7% loans. I was certain with the sustained economic growth that the fed was going to have to raise the rates........no president in American history has had this kind of leadership in an economic recovery.....simply historical, and he has saved my family's bacon.........

32015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 4:02 pm

KarlRove

KarlRove

Here's why it's a pathetic 0.2 percent:

And there's no mystery as to why.

We told you yesterday that forecasts were not good for the coming report on first-quarter GDP growth, although we held out the possibility that the report could be better than the doomsayers were suggesting. It wasn't. It was worse.

A lot worse:


The overall economy grew at a barely discernible annual rate of 0.2 percent in the January-March quarter, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. That is the poorest showing in a year and down from 2.2 percent growth in the fourth quarter.

Plummeting exports pulled growth down by nearly a full percentage point. The category that includes investments in oil and gas exploration drilling plunged 48.7 percent. Consumer spending slowed sharply as a severe winter kept shoppers home.

The tiny increase was much worse than economists had expected, but analysts are still looking for a solid rebound for the rest of the year.

Understand that 2.2 percent is nothing great. We could see an explosion of job creation and put a serious dent in the national debt if we could achieve consistent growth of 4.0 percent or better. But the norm during Obama's presidency has been 2 percent or less, and every time it seems like we're getting somewhere, we hit a thud like the one announced this morning.

Why can't we grow consistently? Why can't we drive people back into the workforce instead of driving them out of it? Why all these fits and stops?

If I had to point to one element of Obama's economic program that can be held most responsible for it, it would be taxes. People don't realize just how many tax increases we've seen during the Obama years, largely because so many of them were hidden in ObamaCare.

The medical device tax is one you've heard about, but did you know the captial gains tax has been raised too? That's a huge drag on growth because it serves as a disincentive to people to realize the gains from their investments. Did you know Obama raised the income tax for people making over $200,000 a year? They figure most people don't care because they don't make that much, and maybe you don't care for that very reason. But the people who create jobs make that much, and the money that might have been used to hire you went to pay that tax increase instead.

These are the policies that lead to 0.2 percent growth rates, and we didn't even get into how they've tipped the scales in favor of unions, or the new regulations they've imposed, or their refusal to seriously look at replacing the tax code.

There is a huge opportunity in this country to unleash growth by adopting growth-friendly policies, but the Obama Administration is not interested in any of that. At least we need to make the electorate understand this so they don't make the same mistake the next time.

42015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 4:22 pm

boards of FL

boards of FL

KarlRove wrote:Here's why it's a pathetic 0.2 percent:

And there's no mystery as to why.


The strong dollar is increasing imports and reducing exports.   Taxes have absolutely nothing to do with today's GDP numbers.


Let me ask you something, KarlRove.  Let's say you decide that you want to learn to cook as a hobby.  Let's say that you have two friends who also like to cook as a hobby.  As you learn, you frequently ask these friends for advice.  


One day you're preparing spaghetti and meatballs, and you ask each friend for their advice.  

Friend 1:  Well I guess it depends on your personal taste.  Some like meatballs that are made from a combination of beef, pork, and veal;  others prefer just beef and pork.  Fresh noodles are usually better than dried noodles.

Friend 2:  Deep fry it.



Another day, you're doing some BBQ brisket.  For some odd reason, the internal temp stalls and doesn't seem to be rising at all, no matter how hot your cooker temp is.  You ask your friends for advice.

Friend 1:  You may want to try to adjust the position of your brisket.  Move it closer to the firebox and then also reinsert your temperature probe somewhere else to see if the internal temp is consistent throughout the meat.

Friend 2:  Deep fry it.



Another day, you have a friend coming over who is on a diet and insists that you prepare a dish that is lite and healthy.  You ask your friends for advice.

Friend 1:  You can never go wrong with a salad when cooking for someone who is on a diet.

Friend 2:  Deep fry it.  (You ask them "Deep fry what?  I was asking you for a recommendation on what to cook, not how to cook it".  Friend 2 reiterates "Deep fry it")



At some point it would seem that the advice you're getting from Friend 2 is useless, because it really doesn't matter what you're cooking, who you're cooking for, or whatever problem it is that you may be dealing with at the time, you know that Friend 2 has only one response:  "Deep fry it."  That's it.   Wouldn't you at some point disregard any advice from Friend 2?  


Now let's go back to republicans and their economic analysis.  It really doesn't matter what is happening in the economy.  

Let's say that you're pushing for two wars that will obviously increase spending while at the same time the economy is in the tank, which will obviously reduce tax receipts.  

Republicans:  Cut taxes!


Let's say the economy is strong and the primary focus shifts to addressing the deficit and national debt.

Republicans:  Cut taxes!


Let's say that you're currently in an unprecedented run of job growth and economic expansion.

Republicans:  Cut taxes!


Let's say that you simply want to find a way to raise tax revenue.

Republicans:  Cut taxes!


(Insert absolutely any conditions here)

Republicans:  Cut taxes!


(Insert a new scenario that is exactly the opposite of the one above)

Republicans:  Cut taxes!



Last edited by boards of FL on 4/29/2015, 4:25 pm; edited 1 time in total


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52015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 4:25 pm

KarlRove

KarlRove

Excuses excuses excuses

62015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 4:29 pm

ZVUGKTUBM

ZVUGKTUBM

Karl is cutting and pasting from one of his wingnut blogs. He won't post a link to the source, as he doesn't want to get hammered on his choice of source. Don't ask him if he understands what he cut and pasted.

The GOP is screaming for the economy to crash before the 2016 elections because it helps their political fortunes. Embarassed

http://www.best-electric-barbecue-grills.com

72015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 4:33 pm

KarlRove

KarlRove

I forgot to paste source.... It's from Herman Cain who has been more successful as a businessman than all of us combined

82015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 4:34 pm

KarlRove

KarlRove

Despite the lack of source, the meat if the article is true and blows holes in BOF lies and excuses.

92015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 4:34 pm

boards of FL

boards of FL

KarlRove wrote:Excuses excuses excuses


http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm


 The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.


What do you have to say about republican, right-wing economic analysis, KarlRove? Don't you ever find it odd that republicans have only one suggestion ever? You agree that the republicans have a one-size-fits-all approach to economic policy, right? Cut taxes. And not only that but "Cut taxes for the rich". Isn't that odd?


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102015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 4:36 pm

boards of FL

boards of FL

KarlRove wrote:Despite the lack of source, the meat if the article is true and blows holes in BOF lies and excuses.


Here is your source. An article written by Herman Cain for the "Canada Free Press". Hahahahaha.

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/71555



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112015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 4:40 pm

ZVUGKTUBM

ZVUGKTUBM

KarlRove wrote:Despite the lack of source, the meat if the article is true and blows holes in BOF lies and excuses.

You couldn't articulate why because you have no background in economics.

The economy is doing better than it has at any time after Bush43 crashed it in 2008. The GOP needs to hope for a stock market crash or a major terrorist attack in a U.S. city before the 2016 elections. Your fear is not selling this cycle if nothing bad happens in America, and your candidate will be toast.

http://www.best-electric-barbecue-grills.com

122015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 4:46 pm

Markle

Markle

I love you
boards of FL wrote:http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=467019&cust=mam&year=2015&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm


Heavy weather and the strong dollar took their toll on first-quarter GDP which, at only plus 0.2 percent, came in at the very low end of the Econoday consensus. This compares with an already soft fourth quarter which is unrevised at plus 2.2 percent.

Exports were the heaviest drag on the first quarter reflecting the strong dollar's effect on foreign demand. The heavy weather of the quarter contributed to an outright contraction in business spending (nonresidential fixed investment) and an abrupt slowing in consumer spending (personal consumption expenditures).

Price data, reflecting lower energy prices, are soft with the GDP price index at minus 0.1 percent vs the Econoday consensus for plus 0.5 percent. Prices were also soft in the fourth quarter at an unrevised plus 0.1 percent.

Details include an unwanted surge in inventories tied to lower demand and also possibly to shipment constraints tied to the quarter's West Coast port strike. Imports, likely limited by the port strike, did pull down GDP but to a much lesser extent than the prior quarter (imports are a subtraction in the GDP calculation).

Federal Reserve policy makers, in this afternoon's FOMC statement, may downplay first-quarter weakness as temporary. Nevertheless, the complete lack of punch underway in early second-quarter indicators, together with the softness of the fourth quarter when there were no special factors not to mention the lack of inflationary pressures in the economy, offer plenty of fuel for the doves at the Fed who want to hold off the first signals of a rate increase.

AGAIN, this weakness was a total "surprise" to the administration in spite of the fact that these so called economists knew what the weather had been and the value of the dollar.

2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Reagan%20vs%20Obama%20job%20growth%20chart_zps9jymyfvl

132015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 5:15 pm

2seaoat



Mr. Markle.......your handlers must be as stupid as Forrest. Do you think anybody here is that stupid.....Nope. The Babyboomer job top end of employment in their 30s was the Reagan years, and the Baby boomer removal from the workplace started when President Obama became President......so instead of using a thermometer to take the temp, you decide to use another indicator like measuring the ice on the windows. GDP growth has a historical and recognized gage. It has NOTHING to do with job creation. A more productive economy will have more economic output and FEWER jobs....so measuring the economy by jobs is a red herring when talking about economic growth......and particularly dishonest if you think people are stupid and do not factor in great leaps in American productivity and the retiring babyboom generation which was the largest bubble of American population.....sophomoric again.

Now if you want to start a thread on comparative job creation by different Presidents, I will look at what you think is significant.....but expect your sophomoric economic analysis to be one more opportunity to lecture you on your conceptual gaps in regard to economics.

142015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Empty Re: 2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% 4/29/2015, 5:24 pm

boards of FL

boards of FL

Markle wrote:
boards of FL wrote:http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=467019&cust=mam&year=2015&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm


Heavy weather and the strong dollar took their toll on first-quarter GDP which, at only plus 0.2 percent, came in at the very low end of the Econoday consensus. This compares with an already soft fourth quarter which is unrevised at plus 2.2 percent.

Exports were the heaviest drag on the first quarter reflecting the strong dollar's effect on foreign demand. The heavy weather of the quarter contributed to an outright contraction in business spending (nonresidential fixed investment) and an abrupt slowing in consumer spending (personal consumption expenditures).

Price data, reflecting lower energy prices, are soft with the GDP price index at minus 0.1 percent vs the Econoday consensus for plus 0.5 percent. Prices were also soft in the fourth quarter at an unrevised plus 0.1 percent.

Details include an unwanted surge in inventories tied to lower demand and also possibly to shipment constraints tied to the quarter's West Coast port strike. Imports, likely limited by the port strike, did pull down GDP but to a much lesser extent than the prior quarter (imports are a subtraction in the GDP calculation).

Federal Reserve policy makers, in this afternoon's FOMC statement, may downplay first-quarter weakness as temporary. Nevertheless, the complete lack of punch underway in early second-quarter indicators, together with the softness of the fourth quarter when there were no special factors not to mention the lack of inflationary pressures in the economy, offer plenty of fuel for the doves at the Fed who want to hold off the first signals of a rate increase.

AGAIN, this weakness was a total "surprise" to the administration in spite of the fact that these so called economists knew what the weather had been and the value of the dollar.

2015 Q1 GDP: +0.2% Reagan%20vs%20Obama%20job%20growth%20chart_zps9jymyfvl


This is laughable.  Where on earth are you getting this?

A few questions, Markle.  First, where is a site that you would agree is accurate with respect to US population by year?

I just googled and this is the first link that came up.  Would you agree that this is an accurate representation of population by year?  If not, can you link me to whatever it is that you feel is more accurate?

http://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table

Let's work through this Markle, looking at the underlying data of population growth and jobs growth, using data that you agree is accurate, and then we'll compare that to the chart that you just posted.


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