latest NHC discussion text and track models on the tropical system

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE.
_______________________

It's cooling off here in northeast FL.  How warm is the Gulf now?  Do you think the Gulf waters are warm enough for this to be a potential problem?

Hopefully my unused generator will keep the storm away.

Nekochan wrote:It's cooling off here in northeast FL.  How warm is the Gulf now?  Do you think the Gulf waters are warm enough for this to be a potential problem?

The forecasters are saying it will develop into a tropical storm in the lower gulf. But that wind shear will knock it back as it approaches the northern gulf.

There is not much chance it will be much of a wind event. But it could be another rain event.
I have a non-refundable ticket for Bayfest. So if it's a bad rain event I'll have a ticket to Rainfest. lol

Bob wrote:

Nekochan wrote:It's cooling off here in northeast FL.  How warm is the Gulf now?  Do you think the Gulf waters are warm enough for this to be a potential problem?

The forecasters are saying it will develop into a tropical storm in the lower gulf.  But that wind shear will knock it back as it approaches the northern gulf.

There is not much chance it will be much of a wind event.  But it could be another rain event.  
I have a non-refundable ticket for Bayfest.  So if it's a bad rain event I'll have a ticket to Rainfest.  lol

FSU is playing at home....all my kids are going.

800 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO
60 MPH IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...AND HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

ZVUGKTUBM wrote:My wife is already freaking out about it...... If I say anyting to try to calm her down, I get in trouble.

My Mom used to be the same way when we lived in Miami. She'd start worrying about them when they were thousands of miles out to sea. No satellites so reports were infrequent and everyone kept their own hurricane map and there were no computer predictions. We went through four in Miami, Donna being the largest and I went through another when I lived in Key West.

I'm ready. The potted plants will be moved tomorrow evening.

Just 1 more door and window to shutter up...