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Trump and Cruz Have Trouble in the Middle

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knothead

knothead

https://pensacoladiscussion.forumotion.com/post?f=1&mode=newtopic

Independents will decide the general election, and they’re far from sold on the Republican front-runners.

A terrible way to forecast the 2016 contest is to gauge whose supporters are the loudest. Presidential elections are not decided by partisans or ideologues.

The arithmetic is pretty simple: 41% of voters in the 2012 presidential election described themselves as moderates, and 29% as independents. Almost all Republicans (93%) and self-described conservatives (82%) voted for Mitt Romney, but that wasn’t enough. Even if Mr. Romney had won every Republican or conservative voter, it still wouldn’t have been enough.

Because there are roughly 5% more Democrats than Republicans, the GOP needs a solid majority of independents to win a national election. In 2012 Mitt Romney outpolled Barack Obama among independents, 50% to 45%. But that didn’t take him across the electoral college finish line.

It is safe to predict that the proportions that held in 2012 will be about the same this year. About two-thirds of the voters will not be Republicans. Thus it is vital to pay early attention to how each of the candidates is doing among independents. A long, drawn-out primary that forces candidates to make strong appeals to the party’s ideological base can hurt the eventual nominee in November.

There are two ways that we can measure how independents see the Republican contenders. On the positive side, we can ask whether voters hold favorable views about a candidate. Or, on the negative side, we can ask whether they would rule out voting for a candidate. Those White House hopefuls with high favorability ratings among swing voters have good prospects for winning a general election. Those whom independents and moderates say they would not even consider supporting start with a deep, probably insurmountable, deficit.

The Internet polling organization YouGov has been tracking, since May 2015, a sample of 5,000 Americans, who have been asked roughly every six weeks about the presidential race. Although Donald Trump is leading in GOP primary polls, his ratings among independents are the worst of any candidate in the field.

In YouGov’s three most recent surveys, Mr. Trump was viewed “very unfavorably” by an average of 43% of independents. How does he fare among moderate voters? In August, only 17% of moderates had a “very favorable” opinion of him; 47% had a “very unfavorable” opinion. Those figures have hardly budged since.

Ted Cruz doesn’t do much better. Only 13% to 16% of independents had a very favorable view of him in YouGov’s three most recent surveys; 28% to 32% viewed him very unfavorably. Among moderates, almost no one (6% to 7%) feels “very favorable” about Mr. Cruz; many (28% to 35%) feel “very unfavorable.”

The problem for Messrs. Trump and Cruz is not that voters don’t know who they are. Mr. Trump started out with nearly everyone being able to rate him; only about 5% said they didn’t know or didn’t have an opinion. As for Mr. Cruz, in June about a quarter of independents did not know enough about him. But over the past six months that figure has dropped to 4%—and most of those voters moved into the “unfavorable” camp. Not a good sign.

Already, large proportions of independents and moderates say that they have made up their minds about the two Republican front-runners. A full 58% of moderates and 51% of independents told YouGov in December that they “would never vote for” Mr. Trump. The figures are a little better for Mr. Cruz, but still about half of moderates (47%) and almost as many independents (41%) say they would never pull the lever for him.

How can anyone, under the circumstances, expect either of these two to win a general election? For the GOP to regain the White House, it will have to do much better, particularly given Hillary Clinton’s better ratings. In December, 48% of moderates said they would consider voting for Mrs. Clinton—a full 16 percentage points better than Mr. Trump and 22 points better than Mr. Cruz.



Last edited by knothead on 1/11/2016, 4:26 pm; edited 1 time in total

Guest


Guest

http://blogs.reuters.com/talesfromthetrail/2016/01/08/clinton-vs-trump-its-a-tie/

Donald Trump is starting the New Year on top, writes Chris Kahn, U.S. political polling editor for Thomson Reuters. Trump continues to dominate the Republican field for the presidential nomination and is now pulling even with Hillary Clinton in support among all voters.

In a hypothetical head-to-head race, the real-estate tycoon and TV personality would be supported by 39 percent of likely general election voters, compared with 40 percent for Clinton, according to the latest 5-day average from Friday’s Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll.

The poll asked respondents who they’d pick if the 2016 presidential election was held between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

The answers:

Clinton: 40%

Trump: 39%

Other/Wouldn’t vote: 21%

5-day average of 1,336 likely general election voters.

The poll has a credibility interval of 3 percentage points, which means that Trump and Clinton are in a statistical dead heat.

Reuters started asking the Clinton-Trump matchup question last month as both firmed up support within their parties. Clinton has maintained a lead over Trump for the past few weeks, though the difference has narrowed since the start of the year.

It’s important to note that the November election is still far away in the minds of the American voter. Many are still getting to know the candidates, and it may be months before they settle on a choice for the White House.

Still, while Ted Cruz may win the Iowa caucus, Trump remains the clear GOP frontrunner. He has considerable appeal among a variety of groups within his party, including women, born-again Christians and people who earn less than the national average income. He also draws more support than other Republicans among liberal-leaning independents, and he’s maintained a stranglehold over the GOP nomination.

Nationally, Trump currently leads with 41 percent support among Republican voters –more than double the support of Cruz, his nearest challenger, at 16 percent.

Floridatexan

Floridatexan


Cruz has other problems. It is very likely that his mother renounced her US citizenship.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/ted-cruz-mother-canadian-voter-list

ZVUGKTUBM

ZVUGKTUBM

Floridatexan wrote:
Cruz has other problems.  It is very likely that his mother renounced her US citizenship.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/ted-cruz-mother-canadian-voter-list

I see there are more problems with Ted Cruz's eligibility to run for POTUS.

Do you think the wingnuts care? The same ones who were carping about Obama's eligibility are likely the ones sounding-off that Cruz is eligible (when Peedog was here, all he did was make excuses for Cruz, all the while declaring Obama a Muslim usurper-- LOL).

http://www.best-electric-barbecue-grills.com

Vikingwoman



Hillary will win. Get used to it.

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