RealLindaL wrote:Whether Sanders or Warren, doesn't matter, the Republicans will eat their lunch and run "socialist" ads seven days a week and we'll have Trump again in a heartbeat. There are problems with the other candidates as well, especially Steyer, who's waaay out of his league and looks like nothing so much as a deer caught in the headlights, but either Sanders or Warren will spell death to Democrats in 2020 for certain.
The Moderate Middle Is A MythStop me if you’ve heard this one before: Independent voters will decide the election. Or better yet: Moderate voters will decide the election. Or, wait for it … If Democrats can move to the middle, they will win in 2020.
These tropes conjure up a particular image: a pivotal bloc of reasonable “independent” voters sick of the two major parties, just waiting for a centrist candidate to embrace a “moderate” policy vision. And there’s a reason this perception exits: You see just that if you look only at topline polling numbers, which show 40-plus percent of voters refusing to identify with a party, or close to 40 percent of voters calling themselves moderates.1 But topline polling numbers mask an underlying diversity of political thought that is far more complicated.
Moderate, independent and undecided voters are not the same, and none of these groups are reliably centrist. They are ideologically diverse, so there is no simple policy solution that will appeal to all of them.
To better understand the unbearable incoherence of moderates, independents and undecideds, let’s start by visualizing them. Drawing on data from the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group,2 a research consortium that works with YouGov to conduct large-scale surveys, I pulled voters who3 …
Identified as “moderate”
Identified as “independent,” even when pressed to pick a party4
Said they were undecided on how they would vote in a 2020 match-up between President Trump and a generic Democrat.
Here’s how big each group is in the electorate overall, and how much they overlap:
(more: "moderate" voters are all over the ideological map)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-moderate-middle-is-a-myth/