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Experts say Wall St ready to crash and Fed won't save us this time ...

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zsomething
Wordslinger
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Wordslinger

Wordslinger

Under the careful concern of the Republican Party who hates big debt, we're now $22 trillion and rising. Experts say everything is going to crash soon and that this time the Fed won't jump in and save us.

At the same time under Chump, the new tax breaks for the ultra rich are causing the rest of us to have an 8% tax return loss. Read this piece and get a big, big jar to start saving your pennies ...


Money & Markets

News


Martin Weiss: THIS Problem Is Much Bigger Than Any Shutdown …

Posted by Martin Weiss | Feb 11, 2019 | Economy, Investing
Martin Weiss: THIS Problem Is Much Bigger Than Any Shutdown …

Another shutdown looms.

No one in Washington wants it. They swear on a stack of bibles they won’t let it happen.

But bipartisan talks broke down yesterday, and the chances are now only about 50-50 they can pull off a last-minute deal.
Alert:These five charts prove that the stock market is on the cusp of crashing by 70%, maybe more.

My opinion: Sooner or later, this problem will be resolved.

They will again kick the can down the road.

The left and the right will go back to business as usual — throwing bricks at each about other hot-button issues.

debt-economy-Fed

LEFT: Bipartisan negotiations to keep the government open seemed to be going well until the Dems demanded a cap on ICE arrests. So, now talks have broken down and no one knows what’s going to happen next.





What won’t be resolved is a problem that’s much bigger than any shutdown:

The biggest pile-up of debt in the history of mankind.

I know. You’ve heard about this many times before. And every time, it seems, we manage to somehow get by. The government saves the day. Stocks recover. People forgive, forget and move on (or so it seems.)

But let me tell you why this time is different.

In the next big debt crisis, the Fed will NOT come to the rescue.

The Fed has already stuck its neck out far more than anyone ever believed possible.

And this is a conclusion from a very reliable source …

In the midst of the 2008 debt crisis, I sat down with former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker at a conference in Washington, D.C.

We talked briefly about a mutual friend. Then I asked him what he thought about the Lehman Brothers collapse and the Federal Reserve’s massive money printing to save it.

debt-economy-Fed

LEFT: Paul Volcker has no ax to grind. He told it like it was when he was Fed Chairman. He tells it like it is today. In the next debt crisis, it won’t be able to crank up the money printing presses like it did in 2008 with impunity.





As always, Mr. Volcker didn’t want to directly criticize Chairman Ben Bernanke, his successor at the Fed. So, he responded this way:

“Mr. Weiss, when I was chairman, if someone told me that the government would someday do what it’s doing today, I would have never believed them.”

And that day marked just the beginning of the Fed’s unprecedented money-printing operations that continued for nearly a decade.

Today, most people look in the rear-view mirror and ask, “If the Fed’s done it before, why can’t they do it again?”

Mr. Volcker would probably tell you it just doesn’t work that way. The fact is, the Fed has gone so far out on a limb, it has no more wiggle room. It has already fired its biggest guns.

Unless it wants to see a collapse in the U.S. dollar and massive inflation, it cannot crank up the printing presses again. If anything, the pressure continues to build on the Fed to start pulling money out of the economy.

That’s precisely what the Fed started doing in January of last year.

And even if it pauses now for a few months, it doesn’t change a darn thing. Meanwhile …

U.S. debts today are far worse.

Government debts are $22 trillion.

Households are in hock to the tune of $15.5 trillion in mortgages, credit card, student loan debts and more.

U.S. corporations have piled up a record $15 trillion in short- and long-term loans.

All told, we’re in hock to the tune of $51.3 trillion, according to the Fed.

That’s two and a half times the entire output of the U.S. economy, precisely at a time when GDP is the biggest in history.

And if you think that’s a horrendous burden, wait till you see the other kinds of obligations sloshing around in the U.S. economy …

The government has obligations of at least $105 trillion to pay for Social Security, Medicare and veterans’ benefits.
Major U.S. banks have obligations of $207 trillion in derivatives — high-risk bets they place on interest rates, stocks and foreign exchange.

Put it all together, and you’re looking at total debts and obligations of $363 trillion.

That’s not just two or three times GDP. It’s SEVENTEEN times GDP.
The Most Dangerous Speculative Bubble in American History

Back in 2000, when the dot-com bubble burst, the Fed did everything it could to stop the crash, but the Nasdaq plunged by more than 70 percent, and investors lost $5 trillion!

The housing bubble of the mid-2000s was even bigger. And so was the bust that soon followed. Again, the Fed tried to stop the bleeding, but this time investors lost $16 trillion!

Today, the bubble is the biggest of all – not just in tech stocks and real estate, but in every kind of asset imaginable.

Here’s what to do …

First, don’t be fooled by Wall Street hype. If they say the Fed can save the day, they’re either blind with one eye or talking with a forked tongue.

Second, don’t get sucked into the latest stock market rally. It’s just a knee-jerk reaction to the same old propaganda about the almighty Fed’s “limitless power” to save the day again.

debt-economy-Fed

Source: Mike Larson, editor of Safe Money

Third, get our shocking forecasts and strategy recommendations for 2019 and beyond.

But don’t delay. Tomorrow it will go off line for good.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

zsomething



I hope not, 'cuz I have a lot of retirement money in there, but the stupid things Trump has been doing are definitely creating instability. My financial advisor, who was usually right-wing, hates him. He took credit for Obama's great market trends and then started ruining them with tariffs, backing out of trade deals and letting our competition grab our spot, ruining America's good name abroad, etc. I hope we'll escape a lot of damage from that, but it's not likely.

The rest of the world is basically operating on an "America doesn't exist anymore" paradigm, and it's going to cost us.

And a bunch of too-fucking-stupid-to-vote morons are cheerleading it because they're brainwashed by FOX and have no clue how anything actually works... and they think they're smart. They're going to support Trump right into the abyss, because they've been trained to do it like a troupe of dancing spaniels.

Wordslinger

Wordslinger

zsomething wrote:I hope not, 'cuz I have a lot of retirement money in there, but the stupid things Trump has been doing are definitely creating instability.  My financial advisor, who was usually right-wing, hates him.  He took credit for Obama's great market trends and then started ruining them with tariffs, backing out of trade deals and letting our competition grab our spot, ruining America's good name abroad, etc.   I hope we'll escape a lot of damage from that, but it's not likely.

The rest of the world is basically operating on an "America doesn't exist anymore" paradigm, and it's going to cost us.  

And a bunch of too-fucking-stupid-to-vote morons are cheerleading it because they're brainwashed by FOX and have no clue how anything actually works... and they think they're smart.   They're going to support Trump right into the abyss, because they've been trained to do it like a troupe of dancing spaniels.

You're absolutely correct. I wonder if Trump's hardcore supporters are hardcore white racists? Why in hell do they continue to support someone who has never once told the truth? Weird.

Deus X

Deus X

Martin Weiss is a bullshit conman:


Weiss pays $2.1M to settle SEC action


Weiss Research Inc. and Founder Martin Weiss agreed to pay roughly $2.1 million to settle a legal action by the Securities and Exchange Commission which claimed the newsletter publisher misled subscribers about the performance of its investment recommendations.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/newsletter-publisher-weiss-pays-21m-to-settle-sec-claims


Quantitative Easing worked in 2008-2010 and, in the event of another catastrophic market crash, there is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON the Fed can't successfully intervene again.




From “ticking time bomb” to “looming collapse.”

Back in 1940, the federal budget was a “ticking time-bomb which can eventually destroy the American system,” said Robert M. Hanes, president of the American Bankers Association.

By 1960: the debt was “threatening the country’s fiscal future,” said Secretary of Commerce, Frederick H. Mueller.

By 1983: “The debt “probably will explode in the third quarter of 1984,” said Fred Napolitano, former president of the National Association of Home Builders.

In 1984: AFL-CIO President Lane Kirkland said. “It’s a time bomb ticking away.”

In 1985: “The federal deficit is ‘a ticking time bomb, and it’s about to blow up,’ U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell.

Later in 1985: Los Angeles Times: “We labeled the deficit a ‘ticking time bomb’ that threatens to permanently undermine the strength and vitality of the American economy.”

In 1987: Richmond Times – Dispatch – Richmond, VA: “100TH CONGRESS FACING U.S. DEFICIT ‘TIME BOMB'”

Later in 1987: The Dallas Morning News: “A fiscal time bomb is slowly ticking that, if not defused, could explode into a financial crisis within the next few years for the federal government.”

In 1989: FORTUNE Magazine: “A TIME BOMB FOR U.S. TAXPAYERS”

In 1992: The Pantagraph – Bloomington, Illinois: “I have seen where politicians in Washington have expressed little or no concern about this ticking time bomb they have helped to create, that being the enormous federal budget deficit, approaching $4 trillion.”

Later in 1992: Ross Perot: “Our great nation is sitting right on top of a ticking time bomb. We have a national debt of $4 trillion.”

In 1995: Kansas City Star: “Concerned citizens. . . regard the national debt as a ticking time bomb poised to explode with devastating consequences at some future date.”

In 2003: Porter Stansberry, for the Daily Reckoning: “Generation debt is a ticking time bomb . . . with about ten years left on the clock.”

In 2004: Bradenton Herald: “A NATION AT RISK: TWIN DEFICIT A TICKING TIME BOMB”

In 2005: Providence Journal: “Some lawmakers see the Medicare drug benefit for what it is: a ticking time bomb.”

In 2006: NewsMax.com, “We have to worry about the deficit . . . when we combine it with the trade deficit we have a real ticking time bomb in our economy,” said Mrs. Clinton.

In 2007: USA Today: “Like a ticking time bomb, the national debt is an explosion waiting to happen.”

In 2010: Reason Alert: “. . . the time bomb that’s ticking under the federal budget like a Guy Fawkes’ powder keg.”

In 2011: Washington Post, Lori Montgomery: ” . . . defuse the biggest budgetary time bombs that are set to explode.”

In 2014: CBN News: “The United States of Debt: A Ticking Time Bomb”

*On Jun 18, 2015: The ticking economic time bomb that presidential candidates are ignoring: Fortune Magazine, Shawn Tully,

*On January 23, 2017: Trump’s ‘Debt Bomb’: Deficit May Grow, Defense Budget May Not, By Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr.

*On April 28, 2017: Debt in the U.S. Fuel for Growth or Ticking Time Bomb?, American Institute for Economic Research, by Max Gulker, PhD – Senior Research Fellow, Theodore Cangero


https://mythfighter.com/2016/02/10/from-ticking-time-bomb-to-looming-collapse/

PkrBum

PkrBum

I think that the market will dink around for trump's 3rd year. There's no doubt to me that it's over valued tho. The fed digitalized 40 BILLION dollars a month for years... while holding the interest rate at near artificial 0%. There will be a price to pay... of course. I'd guess it's about 10k points too high on the dow. Historically we'll see it in trump's 4th year.

Again... i think we'd have been better off in the long run if we had known real value. If funny money had to be injected then bounce it off of the underwater mortgages. Give the real victims a break instead of the banks.

Wordslinger

Wordslinger

PkrBum wrote:I think that the market will dink around for trump's 3rd year. There's no doubt to me that it's over valued tho. The fed digitalized 40 BILLION dollars a month for years... while holding the interest rate at near artificial 0%. There will be a price to pay... of course. I'd guess it's about 10k points too high on the dow. Historically we'll see it in trump's 4th year.

Again... i think we'd have been better off in the long run if we had known real value. If funny money had to be injected then bounce it off of the underwater mortgages. Give the real victims a break instead of the banks.

What isn't bullshit is our national debt which is now 22 Trillion and counting -- approved and boosted by the "conservatives" who continue to spend like drunken sailors for their own pet projects and handing more and more to ultra rich and big corporations. And the trade war now taking place between Trump and China has already effected U.S. consumer prices.

Truth is, Trump and his screwball base are destroying our international image, and our economy. With such a liar and nutcase in the driver seat, none of our former allies believe they can trust the USA anymore. And they're damned right!!

PkrBum

PkrBum

Wordslinger wrote:
PkrBum wrote:I think that the market will dink around for trump's 3rd year. There's no doubt to me that it's over valued tho. The fed digitalized 40 BILLION dollars a month for years... while holding the interest rate at near artificial 0%. There will be a price to pay... of course. I'd guess it's about 10k points too high on the dow. Historically we'll see it in trump's 4th year.

Again... i think we'd have been better off in the long run if we had known real value. If funny money had to be injected then bounce it off of the underwater mortgages. Give the real victims a break instead of the banks.

What isn't bullshit is our national debt which is now 22 Trillion and counting -- approved and boosted by the "conservatives" who continue to spend like drunken sailors for their own pet projects and handing more and more to ultra rich and big corporations.  And the trade war now taking place between Trump and China has already effected U.S. consumer prices.  

Truth is, Trump and his screwball base are destroying our international image, and our economy.  With such a liar and nutcase in the driver seat, none of our former allies believe they can trust the USA anymore.  And they're damned right!!

The debt was doubled under obama. The interest on that all by itself absurd.

Pet projects like solendra?

You still haven't figured out who pays corporate taxes? And who exactly it affects most?

Trump is making headway on trade imbalances. I don't like tariffs. But as a negotiating tactic it's ok.

The rest of that bs is subjective. I'd certainly prefer a strong position than what obama projected.

What our "allies" are most upset about is that we're not willing to be taken advantage of anymore.

RealLindaL



PkrBum wrote:What our "allies"  are most upset about is that we're not willing to be taken advantage of anymore.

I generally try to avoid reacting to Pkr's ridiculous, narrow-minded positions on just about everything, but not this time.

I've been posting on and off on this forum for a long time, and have to say that is absolutely the most ragingly ignorant -- make that just plain STUPID -- statement I've ever read here.

zsomething



RealLindaL wrote:
PkrBum wrote:What our "allies"  are most upset about is that we're not willing to be taken advantage of anymore.

I generally try to avoid reacting to Pkr's ridiculous, narrow-minded positions on just about everything, but not this time.

I've been posting on and off on this forum for a long time, and have to say that is absolutely the most ragingly ignorant  -- make that just plain STUPID -- statement I've ever read here.


Amazing, isn't it? Putin makes Trump dance, Kim makes a fool of him, the Saudis literally get away with murder... and "we're not willing to be taken advantage of" is the conclusion bright-boy reaches? Holy shit. Trump's the biggest puppet ruler since King Friday the XIII.


I think he's drunk all the time or something. There's no other explanation for his "logic" and his limited (and numblingly repetitious) ways of expressing it. Half of his sentences aren't even sentences. He sucks up misinformation like a Hoover and then just belches it back out in barely-composed chunks. I've been on a lot of political boards for a lot of years and he's at least top three for the stupidest people I've ever interacted with. One guy ended up in an asylum and he was more critical-thinking and in contact with reality than our resident lonesome pissant.

Telstar

Telstar

zsomething wrote:
RealLindaL wrote:
PkrBum wrote:What our "allies"  are most upset about is that we're not willing to be taken advantage of anymore.

I generally try to avoid reacting to Pkr's ridiculous, narrow-minded positions on just about everything, but not this time.

I've been posting on and off on this forum for a long time, and have to say that is absolutely the most ragingly ignorant  -- make that just plain STUPID -- statement I've ever read here.


Amazing, isn't it?  Putin makes Trump dance, Kim makes a fool of him, the Saudis literally get away with murder... and "we're not willing to be taken advantage of" is the conclusion bright-boy reaches?  Holy shit. Trump's the biggest puppet ruler since King Friday the XIII.


I think he's drunk all the time or something.  There's no other explanation for his "logic" and his limited (and numblingly repetitious) ways of expressing it.   Half of his sentences aren't even sentences. He sucks up misinformation like a Hoover and then just belches it back out in barely-composed chunks.   I've been on a lot of political boards for a lot of years and he's at least top three for the stupidest people I've ever interacted with.   One guy ended up in an asylum and he was more critical-thinking and in contact with reality than our resident lonesome pissant.





It's the painkillers. They warped his mind.



Experts say Wall St ready to crash and Fed won't save us this time ... Pills12

Wordslinger

Wordslinger

Update, same theme:





Red Flag: Morgan Stanley Slashes S&P 500 Growth Forecast, ‘Earnings Recession Is Here’

Posted by JT Crowe | Feb 12, 2019 | Markets
Red Flag: Morgan Stanley Slashes S&P 500 Growth Forecast, ‘Earnings Recession Is Here’

Even with record earnings thanks to the slashing of the corporate tax rate from 35 to 21 percent, Morgan Stanley is pointing out a trend it says is hard to stop, saying “Earnings Recession is here.”

The “earnings recession” also has Morgan Stanley slashing its 2019 S&P 500 growth forecast from 4.3 percent all the way down to 1 percent.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, is predicting a year-end finish at 2,750. It’s currently at 2,705 as of 3 p.m. Monday.
Profit Alert:5 Pot Stocks Entering the “Acceleration Phase” with Huge Profit Potential

Per Bloomberg:

At 5.4 percent, the expected rate of growth among analysts tracked by Bloomberg has come down from 7.7 percent in January. That’s still too high, warned Wilson, who just cut his growth prediction to 1 percent.

The strategist, who had previously called for a 4.3 percent increase for the full year, said the current reporting season has validated his forecast for two consecutive quarters of earnings declines. While the S&P 500 has climbed almost more than 4 percent over the past four weeks, poised for the best return during any earnings periods since 2014, analysts have been busy trimming their estimates. As a result, corporate America is expected to head for negative profit growth for the first time in three years during the January-March period.

“Our earnings recession call is playing out even faster than we expected,” Wilson wrote in a note to clients. “Earnings recession is here.”

While Wilson turned less optimistic on corporate earnings, he’s sticking to his forecast for the S&P 500 to end the year at 2,750 because lower interest rates support equity valuations. Further profit downgrades don’t necessarily mean lower share prices, but investors should prepare for turbulence as Morgan Stanley’s study over past revision cycles showed market swings tends to widen when earning sentiment sours.

“This earnings slowdown could have real knock-on effects to corporate behavior like spending and hiring which then put further pressure on growth,” he said. “Whether prices move higher or lower, volatility tends to rise meaningfully."

Pkrbum: Keep your investments, in fact, increase your moneymarket holdings ... LOL

Deus X

Deus X

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