This is a forum based out of Pensacola Florida.


You are not connected. Please login or register

Michael....where are thou dart

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1 Michael....where are thou dart on 10/8/2018, 3:15 pm

Two days ago the western edge was Mobile. Now it is Pensacola. So very bad one week out. Sorry Bob, it would have been nice to have better information two days ago because we could have planned to prepare for a direct hit.....nope....it is the same bad dart throwing a week out.

View user profile

2 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/8/2018, 7:56 pm

Still not a clue where it is going to hit.

View user profile

3 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/8/2018, 9:05 pm

Good thing there aren't many more people like you in the world; if there were, the National Hurricane Center would do better to make no attempt at all to utilize its (admittedly imperfect, always improving) forecasting skills at any distance in time whatsoever, but rather simply to wait until landfall and say, "OK, people, here's where it went ashore."

Your arrogant hubris knows no bounds. And when you speak this way you sound like an utter fool.

View user profile

4 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/8/2018, 9:06 pm

2seaoat wrote:Still not a clue where it is going to hit.

Obviously what you don't have a clue about is how the hurricane prediction process works or even how to read a forecast cone, which couldn't be simpler.

View user profile

5 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 5:21 am

Your arrogant hubris knows no bounds. And when you speak this way you sound like an utter fool.


Please use the terms correctly. Stating the fact that a week out, the reliability of the forecasting is no better than throwing darts is a statement of fact. Please prove the same wrong. A friend of the family was stationed out of Biloxi and flew with the air force tracking hurricanes in the early eighties. His plane went down because of a faulty part, and he died, but the predictive accuracy almost forty years later from his death and it is no better when you are talking a week out. People died in Katrina because of multiple blown forecasts which cried wolf the year before.

I am saying the predictive models currently running are like what leeches were to medical science........a stage which needed to be in the rear view mirror. You are an apologist for the hype and illusion that these models are helping people a week out. They are widely seen as totally inaccurate until the three day mark......like telling people you have a cure for cancer, but it takes five years to help people now........so what is it Linda......Mobile or Tallahassee as my argument continues with Bob......they will never get the week forecast to be within fifty miles a week out because the science is primitive and far more complex than the hurricane groupies want to convince you. We are now just a couple days out......and your cone of predictability.......a joke.

View user profile

6 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 7:43 am

But despite 30 years of "climate change" failed predictions... that's still sacred "science". Rolling Eyes

View user profile

7 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 8:29 am

But the real where-the-rubber-meets-the-road question for me today is ... to board-up? Or not?

View user profile

8 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 10:31 am

But the real where-the-rubber-meets-the-road question for me today is ... to board-up? Or not?


That is the same problem we face. Three of our rental homes have hurricane window covers which was a requirement of Santa Rosa County when we built these three homes. Our islands are being damaged at a level we rarely see so it will be two weeks where we do not need to be here, but to travel to the Panhandle and drive right into a Cat 3 storm is stupid......This is the same problem we have suffered for a decade. Faulty hurricane forecasts and much angst, and absolutely NOTHING to rely on from the Hurricane folks. When it lines up at the three day mark, we will have a better idea, but how does that help people who have been burned repeatedly with BAD forecasting. Stop apologizing for really chitty forecasting and realize that it has been killing people for the last twenty years..........fricking dart board.

View user profile

9 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 11:01 am

If you live or have a home in the Panama City Beach area ....board up!

View user profile

10 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 11:41 am

It could easily move in a Westerly direction and hit Orange beach and absolutely destroy the Pensacola area with record surges, or NOT. We are better with forecasting than we were sixty years ago......but barely better. All but two of our homes are on canals or bayous. The storm surge is critical. I could move machinery and tools to high ground, but in my weak condition, I need some certainty before we throw ourselves into chaos.

View user profile

11 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 11:45 am

But despite 30 years of "climate change" failed predictions... that's still sacred "science". Rolling Eyes


You have been dead wrong on climate change.  The scientist have told us exactly what will happen with the warming trends as millions of gallons of ice melts into water......they told us of fires, droughts, and floods.   They have been dead cinch right on the floods on our river over the last fifteen years.  You have NEVER been more wrong about any issue on this forum.

View user profile

12 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 6:00 pm

We are getting wiped out by floods in Illinois and like that cartoon character with the cloud and lightening bolt hanging over his head......I feel like we are bringing our curse to the panhandle.......I think somebody has to sneak into my home in Illinois and put a wooden stake in me.........

View user profile

13 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/10/2018, 1:44 pm

On shore ...cat 4 max. sustained wind 155 mph moving NNE @ 14 mph with a pressure of 919 mb...Tyndall AFB.

Landfall NW of Mexico Beach.

This one, as predicted, made history. Only Cat 4 to hit land in the Florida panhandle.

View user profile

14 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/10/2018, 2:35 pm

It shows only 22mph at the Pensacola airport...how have the surges been?

View user profile

15 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/10/2018, 2:52 pm


And nothing...hardly any rain in Pensacola...winds no higher than a good stormy day. Apparently, not so good for our friends in Panama City...and it will probably throw plenty of rain up the coast. Now Florence is headed for DC.

View user profile

16 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/10/2018, 4:06 pm

2seaoat wrote:It shows only 22mph at the Pensacola airport...how have the surges been?

Sea wall on Madura not breached.Street flooded from the marshes.
Canals on north side of 98 some have spilled over slightly.

View user profile

17 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/12/2018, 2:30 pm

The forecast was right, Oatie so you wasted all your hot air.

View user profile

18 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/12/2018, 3:54 pm

Viking, I certainly hope you're not going to hold your breath waiting for Sea to acknowledge that. Never happen.

What he very obviously wants is for the NHC to be able to pinpoint the exact landfall at least a week in advance so he has time to get down here to secure his properties if need be. That ain't gonna happen either, at least not in our lifetimes.

View user profile

19 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/14/2018, 4:52 pm

Camping in Key West last week, we got a little bit of Michael's outer bands. The palm trees bent over and the Key West chickens hid under the campers. We were right next to the beach so we got the full force of the outer bands. It was either a TS or Cat one then, not too scary since we could see it was passing by very quickly. Only about 2 hours of bad wind and rain. The sun came out the next day and was beautiful.
Coming home I met a road worker and thanked him for clearing I-10. The trees were cut in two all along from Tallahassee to Marianna and you could tell they'd done a lot of work. He said the FHP had loaned them 70 officers with chain saws to work with them. They wanted I-10 open within 24 hours of the storm, and they did it. Amazing job by some good people.

View user profile

20 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/14/2018, 5:28 pm

Interesting (and nice!) story, bigdog. Thanks for sharing.

View user profile

Sponsored content


Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum