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Michael....where are thou dart

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1 Michael....where are thou dart on 10/8/2018, 3:15 pm

Two days ago the western edge was Mobile. Now it is Pensacola. So very bad one week out. Sorry Bob, it would have been nice to have better information two days ago because we could have planned to prepare for a direct hit.....nope....it is the same bad dart throwing a week out.

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2 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/8/2018, 7:56 pm

Still not a clue where it is going to hit.

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3 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/8/2018, 9:05 pm

Good thing there aren't many more people like you in the world; if there were, the National Hurricane Center would do better to make no attempt at all to utilize its (admittedly imperfect, always improving) forecasting skills at any distance in time whatsoever, but rather simply to wait until landfall and say, "OK, people, here's where it went ashore."

Your arrogant hubris knows no bounds. And when you speak this way you sound like an utter fool.

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4 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/8/2018, 9:06 pm

2seaoat wrote:Still not a clue where it is going to hit.

Obviously what you don't have a clue about is how the hurricane prediction process works or even how to read a forecast cone, which couldn't be simpler.

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5 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 5:21 am

Your arrogant hubris knows no bounds. And when you speak this way you sound like an utter fool.


Please use the terms correctly. Stating the fact that a week out, the reliability of the forecasting is no better than throwing darts is a statement of fact. Please prove the same wrong. A friend of the family was stationed out of Biloxi and flew with the air force tracking hurricanes in the early eighties. His plane went down because of a faulty part, and he died, but the predictive accuracy almost forty years later from his death and it is no better when you are talking a week out. People died in Katrina because of multiple blown forecasts which cried wolf the year before.

I am saying the predictive models currently running are like what leeches were to medical science........a stage which needed to be in the rear view mirror. You are an apologist for the hype and illusion that these models are helping people a week out. They are widely seen as totally inaccurate until the three day mark......like telling people you have a cure for cancer, but it takes five years to help people now........so what is it Linda......Mobile or Tallahassee as my argument continues with Bob......they will never get the week forecast to be within fifty miles a week out because the science is primitive and far more complex than the hurricane groupies want to convince you. We are now just a couple days out......and your cone of predictability.......a joke.

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6 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 7:43 am

But despite 30 years of "climate change" failed predictions... that's still sacred "science". Rolling Eyes

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7 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 8:29 am

But the real where-the-rubber-meets-the-road question for me today is ... to board-up? Or not?

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8 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 10:31 am

But the real where-the-rubber-meets-the-road question for me today is ... to board-up? Or not?


That is the same problem we face. Three of our rental homes have hurricane window covers which was a requirement of Santa Rosa County when we built these three homes. Our islands are being damaged at a level we rarely see so it will be two weeks where we do not need to be here, but to travel to the Panhandle and drive right into a Cat 3 storm is stupid......This is the same problem we have suffered for a decade. Faulty hurricane forecasts and much angst, and absolutely NOTHING to rely on from the Hurricane folks. When it lines up at the three day mark, we will have a better idea, but how does that help people who have been burned repeatedly with BAD forecasting. Stop apologizing for really chitty forecasting and realize that it has been killing people for the last twenty years..........fricking dart board.

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9 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 11:01 am

If you live or have a home in the Panama City Beach area ....board up!

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10 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 11:41 am

It could easily move in a Westerly direction and hit Orange beach and absolutely destroy the Pensacola area with record surges, or NOT. We are better with forecasting than we were sixty years ago......but barely better. All but two of our homes are on canals or bayous. The storm surge is critical. I could move machinery and tools to high ground, but in my weak condition, I need some certainty before we throw ourselves into chaos.

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11 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 11:45 am

But despite 30 years of "climate change" failed predictions... that's still sacred "science". Rolling Eyes


You have been dead wrong on climate change.  The scientist have told us exactly what will happen with the warming trends as millions of gallons of ice melts into water......they told us of fires, droughts, and floods.   They have been dead cinch right on the floods on our river over the last fifteen years.  You have NEVER been more wrong about any issue on this forum.

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12 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/9/2018, 6:00 pm

We are getting wiped out by floods in Illinois and like that cartoon character with the cloud and lightening bolt hanging over his head......I feel like we are bringing our curse to the panhandle.......I think somebody has to sneak into my home in Illinois and put a wooden stake in me.........

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13 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/10/2018, 1:44 pm

On shore ...cat 4 max. sustained wind 155 mph moving NNE @ 14 mph with a pressure of 919 mb...Tyndall AFB.

Landfall NW of Mexico Beach.

This one, as predicted, made history. Only Cat 4 to hit land in the Florida panhandle.

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14 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/10/2018, 2:35 pm

It shows only 22mph at the Pensacola airport...how have the surges been?

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15 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/10/2018, 2:52 pm


And nothing...hardly any rain in Pensacola...winds no higher than a good stormy day. Apparently, not so good for our friends in Panama City...and it will probably throw plenty of rain up the coast. Now Florence is headed for DC.

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16 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/10/2018, 4:06 pm

2seaoat wrote:It shows only 22mph at the Pensacola airport...how have the surges been?

Sea wall on Madura not breached.Street flooded from the marshes.
Canals on north side of 98 some have spilled over slightly.

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17 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/12/2018, 2:30 pm

The forecast was right, Oatie so you wasted all your hot air.

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18 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/12/2018, 3:54 pm

Viking, I certainly hope you're not going to hold your breath waiting for Sea to acknowledge that. Never happen.

What he very obviously wants is for the NHC to be able to pinpoint the exact landfall at least a week in advance so he has time to get down here to secure his properties if need be. That ain't gonna happen either, at least not in our lifetimes.

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19 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/14/2018, 4:52 pm

Camping in Key West last week, we got a little bit of Michael's outer bands. The palm trees bent over and the Key West chickens hid under the campers. We were right next to the beach so we got the full force of the outer bands. It was either a TS or Cat one then, not too scary since we could see it was passing by very quickly. Only about 2 hours of bad wind and rain. The sun came out the next day and was beautiful.
Coming home I met a road worker and thanked him for clearing I-10. The trees were cut in two all along from Tallahassee to Marianna and you could tell they'd done a lot of work. He said the FHP had loaned them 70 officers with chain saws to work with them. They wanted I-10 open within 24 hours of the storm, and they did it. Amazing job by some good people.

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20 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/14/2018, 5:28 pm

Interesting (and nice!) story, bigdog. Thanks for sharing.

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21 Re: Michael....where are thou dart on 10/21/2018, 1:55 pm


I'm happy to report that our friend Eric went over with 16 smoked pork butts and all the trimmings. Also, my niece from Houston was in Bay County with some members of her church.

This is from FB:

Keith Kramer
Yesterday at 8:19 AM
For those of you who aren't here, this person described it perfectly. I'm AMAZED that the National News isn't covering all that is happening here. I truly cannot believe it.

Hey all, just now have a signal....still not a great one....but I got a pre-paid T-Mobile sim card and I can finally communicate a bit.

I’m deployed up here in Panama City for disaster response with my agency and we took off with two hours notice and everyone here volunteered to go.

I’ve been in various areas of Bay County while here, Panama City, Mexico Beach, Lynnhaven, and PC Beach.

I’ve heard the word “devastation” used a lot and it can’t fully be appreciated until observed first hand. There are areas here, like Mexico Beach, that are literally destroyed. The damage is unfathomable and short of a nuclear weapon, we couldn’t cause that much damage on purpose with military weaponry and bombing.

The old “we will rebuild” saying doesn’t really apply here. Imagine if your entire town was wiped out; your home, your place of work, your child’s school, the places you shopped, the places you liked to eat, the things you saw everyday.....all gone. You can rebuild structures, but it’s not the same places or memories.

The people here are suffering greatly; they are shell shocked, lost, depressed, scared and uncertain about their future. I’ve seen the thousand yard stares, the walking wounded and those trying to make the best of things. Everyone here is just trying to get through to the next day.

The conditions for the people here are absolutely abysmal and even the mostly unscathed are having to adjust to this harsh existence.

The ER’s and hospitals are choked with the injured and more keep coming. Fire and EMS are scarce as they are heavily tasked with rescue and recovery operations. When people get hurt their options are limited and we’ve had to bandage people up the best we can and give them medical supplies and medications that we brought for ourselves.

Many if the roads are unpassable or treacherous to drive on. There are downed trees, downed power lines that are especially hard to see at night, and debris is everywhere. If their car punctures a tire or beaks down, there is no way to fix it yet. We had to bring a city mechanic with us and extra parts and tires. The local police cars here are all seemingly damaged. There are abandoned broken cars everywhere, with many just left in the street.

The passable roads are choked with traffic, due to returning residents, refugees going out, and thousands of power line trucks, tree service trucks, supply convoys and first responder vehicles. We use emergency lights while driving everywhere in order to get to where we are needed.

Almost none of the roads here have working street lights, many don’t have working traffic signals and few have intact street signs or stop signs. There are dead animals all over the roads; dogs, cats and wildlife, because of the chaos. There are numerous crashes happening and with a recent heavy fog that has appeared, several first responders have collided at intersections.

There is a strict curfew from 7 PM to 7 AM that is being enforced so that convoys can get through and looting can be controlled. Also, it’s too dangerous to drive at night. Anyone caught out without a legitimate purpose has been stopped, detained and searched. Many critical sites and businesses are being guarded by either police or assault rifle-armed private security. Some small business owners are parking at their buildings at night.

The power situation is uneven and sporadic, and the power linemen, who are the unsung heroes here, have done a phenomenal job in restoring power. The magnitude of their task is incredible and encompasses several states. There are power workers from almost every state here working around the clock. The lines, poles, junctions and transformers all have to be replaced and repaired. A lot of areas are dark and the sound of generators is everywhere.

The water situation is bad, and even in areas with running water, it’s not safe to drink yet. There’s open sewage in many places and in some places there have been sewage rivers.

The stores, businesses and restaurants that weren’t damaged aren’t open or are open for limited times. Pharmacies are open for a few hours and the only restaurants open are the non-destroyed Waffle Houses. The Waffle Houses rock and they brought in food trucks to assist in helping to feed. Sam’s Club is open and has been just giving away things to community. Target has been the same. Home Depot is open and it’s full of contractors in the lot everyday, getting supplies to make repairs. Publix just opened after getting some supplies. The banks are closed. There are no non-essential stores open and many businesses that are intact, don’t have employees to man them.

Cell service is spotty and limited. There are mobile emergency hot spots set up all over, but those get overwhelmed and the speed drops. There’s no cable service available at this time, so many can’t watch TV and news is hard to get out.

Tens of thousands of trees were felled, damaged or splintered and wood piles cover every corner, sidewalk and road shoulder. When we first arrived there was smoke everywhere from people trying to burn the wood for light and to cook on.

Food is hard to find, and if the people didn’t have canned or preserved food items they have to come to the feeding sites for hot meals and to get MRE’s to bring home. Pet food is even harder to find.

Gasoline is scarce due to most the gas stations being damaged or wrecked. There are mobile fueling sites for first responders, but all the open gas stations have miles long lines and the gas is rationed.

There is no mail service, and there’s almost no mailboxes to put mail in anyway. There’s no home deliveries from UPS, FedEx, Amazon...nothing.

There’s no residential garbage pickup and the spoiled food and human waste people have put in bags is piling up.

Life here for these people is hard, and for many, their lives have changed forever. Every person here has a story and some have brought tears to our eyes. I’ve seen so many terrible things as a cop and in the military, but this is different. No one here brought this on themselves and there is no one to blame or justice to get. This is just tragedy on a massive scale. In just a few hours, within an entire region, tens of thousands of victims were instantly created.

Each person here could just as easily be me or you, and that’s something to think about. There are those who will try not to think about people in this condition, because it’s too hard or because they are busy, or have “stuff going on”, but once you see it....once you experience it, you will never think the same again.

I think this is all I can write about for now. There’s so much to tell and so many thoughts, sights and emotions to process. I hope this post goes through.

I will write more later or when I can. I’ll talk more about:

1. How you can help

2. Our camp and our living conditions

3. The amazing people here helping these people. These are literally the best people I’ve had the privilege of meeting

4. Our mission and what I’ve been doing

5. Some of the specific places and what happened to them

A quick thank you to my wife, she’s supported me here and she’s willing to sacrifice all of our plans in order for me to be here.

I also want to thank the few who reached out to her and offered support during this time. You have my gratitude.

Hope all is well with everyone.

*********

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