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26 Re: Tariffs on 7/18/2018, 11:08 am

Floridatexan wrote:
Meanwhile, Japan and the EU have a new trade pact.

And there's nothing wrong with that. Free and fair trade is a good thing. For all countries. We should not be afraid of fair competition. Probably would not have happened without President Trump shaking up some of these countries, including the EU, over their unfair trade practices.

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27 Re: Tariffs on 7/18/2018, 1:50 pm

President Trump was not responsible in any way on the EU and Japanese trade deal. These deals have gone on for a century before as free trade took down unfair barriers to trade......until trump who has erected barriers to free trade not at the micro level but with macro solutions which were painted with a large brush and made billions for his alleged co-conspirators. Trump is freaking because he knows Mueller has financial information.......as this Tony Soprano crap never ends well.......wanabee gangster......tough........never seen a softer President in my life. However, like Tony.....trump is profiting from the white house......it will take years to unwind the conspiracies.....some easier than others, but his mobster friends which allowed fred to get his concrete for building when nobody else could get the concrete, and the Russian mobsters with their wealthy oligarchs will get their payback.......neat clean, and hard to trace.......billions of profit from manipulated markets.....it always was the end game.

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28 Re: Tariffs on 7/18/2018, 5:05 pm

“Since the tariff was implemented, U.S. consumers have paid more for their washing machines across all brands.”

Thank you President Trump......

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29 Re: Tariffs on 7/18/2018, 9:04 pm

PkrBum wrote:I'd like to see a big push to enhance the south American markets for trade. There's a great need for development to pull these countries up. If we're going to get screwed anyway... why not make it a mutually beneficial investment.

Did you hear about Brazil practically salivating over their newfound competitiveness in the Chinese soybean market due to Trump's trade-war? I think I posted something about it a few weeks ago.

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30 Re: Tariffs on 7/20/2018, 2:40 pm

We will be in the market for a car and we prefer Toyota, but it is going to get very expensive buying a car because of the American idiot.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/toyota-might-halt-some-imports-under-trumps-tariffs/ar-BBKS5Vb

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31 Re: Tariffs on 7/22/2018, 6:00 pm

2seaoat wrote:We will be in the market for a car and we prefer Toyota, but it is going to get very expensive buying a car because of the American idiot.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/toyota-might-halt-some-imports-under-trumps-tariffs/ar-BBKS5Vb

If you must buy a Toyota, you should buy a Tundra then. They are made right here in Texas. San Antonio.



Trump is winning the trade war because China has more to lose


Don’t look now, but there are numerous signs that President Trump is winning the trade war with China. While the battle over tariffs and protecting intellectual property may eventually damage the United States’ economy, there are signs that China is already paying a price for its refusal to bend to Trump’s demands.

One indicator of that price is the sharp plunge in China’s stock exchanges. Since the White House announced the first tariffs — on washing machines and solar cells on Jan. 22 — the Shanghai Index of Chinese stocks is down nearly 20 percent, while the S&P 500 is off less than 1 percent.


That decline of share values is occurring in spite of the first-time inclusion in the MSCI, an important international index, of many Chinese stocks on June 1. That initial index listing attracted billions of dollars toward Chinese stocks, in expectation it would boost prices, but it did not.


What does that tell you? Investors think China has more to lose than the U.S. They are correct.

China’s government, determined to save face and match Trump’s tariff threats, is so concerned about the slide in share prices and what it might signal about the cost of the confrontation, that it will likely allow the $941 billion China Investment Corp. (CIC) to begin buying domestic stocks.

The sovereign wealth fund has petitioned to change its mandate, which formerly directed it to purchases of overseas shares; since most view the CIC as an arm of the Chinese government, the move may be interpreted as Beijing again intervening to prop up share prices.

It would not be the first time. From the middle of 2014 through the second quarter of 2015, Beijing encouraged China’s citizens to buy stocks, ballyhooing a booming economy and hinting that the government would stand behind markets.

Stocks soared as 38 million new accounts were opened, mainly by small investors. When share prices plunged in June 2015, officials stepped in to stabilize markets; the government intervened again later that year, loosening margin requirements, putting a “lockup” in place that prevented owners of large positions from dumping their positions while also banning short selling.

Most recently, the government reportedly stepped in this past March, hoping to stem a sharp selloff in share prices caused by fears of a trade war.

Another indication that Beijing is feeling the heat is that officials appear to be softening their bold “Made in China 2025” campaign. The Financial Times reported, “A propaganda directive leaked in late June ordered Chinese media no longer to refer to the term;"

The FT also noted: “Chinese leaders are also seeking to reassure foreign governments and companies that the programme is more benign than has been portrayed.”

Beijing is attempting to ally with the EU to push back against Trump’s trade stance; being less aggressive about dominating coveted industries is meant to help that effort.

Meanwhile, it’s not just Chinese stocks that have been walloped by trade concerns; the yuan has taken a beating, too. Since the end of March, when the battle over tariffs heated up, the yuan has slid nearly 7 percent, again demonstrating the impact the trade war might have on China’s economy.

After it hit a six-month low at the end of June, the government quietly stepped in to halt the slide, working through a large state-owned bank to sell dollars and prop up the yuan. Part of the currency’s weakness was attributed to a decision by China’s central bank to free up $100 billion in an attempt to boost lending and help out small businesses and state-owned firms threatened by escalating tariffs.

Meanwhile, growth in China is cooling. In the second quarter, the economy grew at 6.7 percent, the slowest rate since 2016. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that China will grow 6.6 percent for the current year, but only 6.4 percent next year; in 2017 growth totaled 6.9 percent.


In describing the potential harm that might be done by Trump’s tariffs, the IMF economic guru Maury Obstfeld said recently: “As the focus of global retaliation, the United States finds a relatively high share of its exports taxed in global markets in such a broader trade conflict, and it is therefore especially vulnerable.”

Given that exports constitute 12 percent of the U.S. economy, versus 20 percent of China’s GDP and that the entire skirmish is over disparate tariffs (i.e., ours are higher) that seems more a political message than a reasonable assessment.

New numbers tell the story. China’s industrial production increased 6 percent year-over-year in June, short of an estimated 6.5 percent, while investment also was up only 6 percent.

By contrast, in the U.S., economic growth remains on the upswing, along with investment spending by businesses and industrial output. A recent NABE survey indicates that business economists are concerned about the effect of a trade war, but also bullish about the outlook for growth.

Specifically, they have substantially raised their expectations of industrial production, now looking for a gain of 3.8 percent this year, up from the 3.3-percent gain projected in March, and much higher than the 2.3 percent forecasted in the December survey.

Meanwhile, economists at ISI Evercore are reporting their private surveys of businesses support estimates that real GDP could grow at a nominal rate (including inflation) of 5.5 percent in the second quarter, a cyclical high.

The recent rise in retail sales, up 6.6 percent in June compared to last year, fuels continued optimism, as does data from the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey, “suggesting a continuation of robust growth," according to the press release.

President Trump is rightly pushing back against decades of Chinese misbehavior, punishing Beijing for ongoing unfair trade practices and theft of intellectual property. His imposition of tariffs are meant to force a change by damaging China’s economy.

The risk is that China stands firm and fails to make the concessions demanded by the White House. In that scenario, global growth will suffer, but Beijing will likely suffer most. It appears they already are.

Liz Peek is a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim & Company. For 15 years, she has been a columnist for The Fiscal Times, Fox News, the New York Sun and numerous other organizations.

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32 Re: Tariffs on 7/22/2018, 6:47 pm

If you must buy a Toyota, you should buy a Tundra then. They are made right here in Texas. San Antonio.

I do not think you understand the complexity of trade.

This year, the Toyota Tundra and Ford F-Series will be eligible for the AMI because both have 75 percent domestic parts content, so that means 25% eligible for different tariffs. All Cars and trucks are going to cost significantly more over the next few years as we destroy the societal benefits of free trade. I am going to laugh my asz off as those farmers who get a new pick up every four years, price them this fall. I am now convinced Trump, his mob buddies, and the Russian Oligarchs are trying to crash the American economy and allow them to short the markets and make billions..........There is no rhyme or reason to his tariffs which make any sense......it it like the daycare people at the White House let the child get on a white house computer and he started punching keys on the keyboard. A petulant child is bumbling through what looks to me to be an intentional course of conduct which will enrich his insiders......this is the biggest mob scam in world history......and who knew all you had to do is have some Russian prostitutes urinate on the President, and everybody gets rich.

The short is a huge multiplier when the economy is doing well....pay day.

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33 Re: Tariffs on 7/24/2018, 10:33 am

Trump was tweeting again about how great tariffs are, which is a sure sign he's gotten bad news about them.

It's easy to read Trump after a while... all it takes is pattern recognition.  He's got a very simple pattern, not much different than a televangelist, because he's dealing mostly with the same low-wattage duh-eeeee-end-of-the-learning-curve morons, and they like to be told stories, and they like repetition.  And Trump's perfect for them because he's always been one big scam -- he's all about appearances.  He's not actually even all that rich, he just buys a bunch of flash to create that impression, because impressions are all he's about.   A lot of veneer over bad wood.

Trump doesn't even consider himself the president of the United States... he's just the president of his cult, and he governs almost entirely by brainwashing.  He knows who he can fool and who he can't, so his main goal is to keep the people he's already hypnotized under his spell.  It's all booster-shots.

When he gets word that anything's going badly, he'll tweet that it's great.  This reassures the dullards that everything's okay, they can trust daddy, don't believe what the rest of the world says... or shows.   If soybean farmers see their livelihoods imperiled by his actions, Trump trusts that they'll hate Mexicans and Muslims more than they'll love their farms, and they'll keep trusting him rather than having to admit that they were stupid and made a big mistake.  

He gives the booster shots to the areas that are about to become sick.  The economy's heading into trouble because of his stupid meddling, so he's gonna spend a few days touting how great it is, because that's what his followers need -- reassurance, so they can keep believing.  

It happens over and over again.  And if something's bad enough that he can't try to spin it away or blame it away, then he'll throw out a big distraction to get people talking about something else.  His Helsinki meeting was an embarrassing disaster, so he threatens Iran to lead the news cycle to that instead.  

Trump's followers like him because he's proud to be stupid, feels no need to be informed about the things he has strong opinions about, and he's full of hate and bigoted, and he's a bully and yet still always portrays himself as the victim.   They like all of that because everything they see in him is exactly what they see in themselves.   They feel like Trump makes it okay to be a piece of shit.

They have a lot invested in that, so they'll cling to it and buy whatever garbage he crams into their throbbing gullets.   It's easy to brainwash people who are dying to be brainwashed.

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34 Re: Tariffs on 7/24/2018, 12:07 pm

Toldja there was going to be bad news about the tariffs. I think we just found out part of it. And now it gets stupider.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/24/trump-trade-aid-for-farmers-737108

Trump's figuring out he's fucked over farmers, so now here's the genius plan:

Create a problem and screw over farmers with a big tariff, because you don't understand capitalism.

Bail them out with socialism, in the form of welfare aid, using American tax dollars, and increase the debt... much of which is owed to China in the first place.

So, basically, lose American profit, and then reimburse it with more American money... which we have less of due to less profit. So, we all pretty much lose twice. AND, on top of all that, we'll all get to keep paying higher prices for goods we import.

WE are paying for the tariffs. And increasing the deficit.

Conservative? Ha! It's basically making the agricultural industry dependent upon the federal government for its survival. And that ain't even socialism, it's full-blown Communism.

If this pattern sounds familiar at all, it's because it's basically what the Soviet Union did, which contributed greatly to their collapse.

It's also the kind of "good business sense" that Trump used to bankrupt casinos, which is a difficult thing to do.

If Trump really meant "Tariffs are the greatest!" like he tweeted this morning, then why are they requiring aid to save farmers? I'm not against saving the farmers -- ya do what ya gotta (although I wonder if they'd get help at all if they weren't such an important part of his base, and midterms weren't coming) -- but this was an unforced error and a situation entirely of Trump's own making. Without his mishandling, this wouldn't be necessary. The agriculture industry was going strong (thanks to Obama) until Trump hamstrung it with his idiotic government meddling. And it'll just be the start, too... the same is likely going to be needed for all kinds of businesses that Trump's idiocy is going to hurt. Westinghouse already announced that they're in big trouble today, thanks to DumbDonald.

And, meanwhile, still nothing's been done to improve the healthcare problem Trump also created. Puerto Rico's still without power in a lot of places, Flint's water is still toxic, veterans are still screwed, etc. etc.



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35 Re: Tariffs on 7/24/2018, 12:38 pm


Liz Peek is a liar, first and foremost. It's a sad commentary on our country that people like her can get rich off their lies.

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36 Re: Tariffs on 7/24/2018, 8:52 pm

Advice from a shark: Ignore the Trump circus, focus on Trump policy

I’m always being asked, “What keeps you up at night about the stock market?” Lately the dialogue around trade wars among investors has intensified. Turn on any business media outlet and you will find a constant stream of pundits talking about the escalating risks associated with Presidents Trump's trade policies.

Last week, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow turned up the heat on China during an interview on CNBC where he stated he did not believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping was really interested in working on a trade deal.

You might have expected the market to trade down materially after a revelation like that. It barely moved.

During the contentious presidential campaign in 2016, Trump continually made reference to trade imbalances with Europe and China. These are two different issues.

The U.S. is likely to maintain a trade deficit with China even if all tariffs are removed. Why? The U.S. is the largest economy in the world, and the American consumer has a ferocious appetite for goods and services. The U.S. economy simply consumes more than it exports. This is not going to change anytime soon.

Tariffs are a different deal. They are imbalances. Take the automotive industry, for example. The Chinese and Europeans charge higher tariffs on U.S. cars coming into their markets than corresponding Asian and European automobiles entering the U.S. markets. This has been going on for years.

For decades, no U.S. president has had any interest in getting into a skirmish over this, as it was far more expedient to “keep the peace” rather than get into an escalating trade war that may cost American jobs, reduce productivity and maybe cause creeping inflation.

Why take such a risk? No previous administration did, and the gap between U.S., Chinese and European tariffs continued to grow.

Then, Trump comes along. He is like a honey badger; he does not care about historic protocol. Maybe you like him, maybe you don’t. Maybe you are like me and no longer listen to the rhetoric, the tweets, the constant hysteria of news networks barking for or against him. If you are trying to make investment decisions, it's mostly useless information.

Trump is like no president before him: not good, not bad, but different. Want to manage through the turmoil? Here is a better strategy. Ignore the noise and watch the policy.

The policy is crystal clear. Listen to the messaging coming from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Director Larry Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. These are competent managers tasked with executing directives. They and their staff have delivered deregulation and tax reform and are now focused on trade.

Their message is clear. They are going to keep ratcheting up tariffs until the eurozone and China come to the table. They care about the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Asian trade protocol, too, but these have been pushed to the back burner while they focus on the big dogs, China and Europe.

If you listen and believe the noise, this is economic suicide and will result in the end of the free world as we have known it.

So why has the market not corrected, and why have many stocks continued to hit all-time historic highs? Because the potential to equalize tariffs has such tremendous economic upside for the U.S. economy, investors are willing to put up with pain even if the chance of success is only 50 percent or less.

How much pain? A lot.

The markets know this is not going to happen overnight, but the upside is so enticing that it is willing to wait. Case in point: Trump recently remarked to German Chancellor Angela Merkel that he sees a lot more German cars driving around the U.S. than he sees American automobiles on the Autobahn.

Maybe the Germans got the message. They are rumored to be bringing a deal on auto tariffs between the two countries when they meet at the White House soon. This is proof that if you don’t ask, you don’t get. I am going to go long on the U.S. auto sector going into that dinner.

My bet is that the strategy is about to start paying dividends — the equalization of trade tariffs. This is a move toward a more free and competitive trade between the two auto markets that we have not seen in decades. Investors and employees will benefit.

China is going to be far more complex, but I’m willing to wait and, for now, so is the market.

I never endorse politicians. You can’t win because you will always make 50 percent of the constituency unhappy. But I do watch and study policy. I have to because I have to put money to work in the market every day, and policy can have a tremendous impact on returns.

You never know what the market will do tomorrow, but you can manage risk. My best advice in these extraordinary times? Tune out the circus and focus on the policy that actually gets implemented. It's getting interesting.

Kevin O’Leary is the chairman of O’Shares ETFs, a CNBC contributor and an investor on ABC’s four-time-Emmy-winning "Shark Tank."

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37 Re: Tariffs on 7/24/2018, 11:23 pm

In case anyone is interested in anything our resident demented harpy, ConservaLoony, posts, Kevin O'Leary, the author of her above post, is another scam artist and reality TV star, not a serious economic commentator.

Here's an article from a serious conservative journal, The National Review:

Tariffs Beget Tariffs

The White House’s trade policy will hurt American producers most.

There is a certain irony in the fact that the Trump administration’s tariff-based approach to tackling unfairness in global markets, presumably centered on Chinese actions, is not only ineffective per se, but also likely to sabotage the coalition that could make a productive stand against Chinese misconduct possible.

Last week saw China imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, after the Trump administration put a 25 percent tariff on $34 billion in Chinese products (per year) that is set to go into effect on July 6. The administration hopes to tax an additional $16 billion in Chinese products a little later. The Chinese tariffs, also at a 25 percent rate, hit a broad spectrum of American exports, including farm products, seafood, and automobiles.

The price impact of a 25 percent tax on Chinese imports will hit family budgets hard to begin with. It will be even worse for Americans whose products will now become more expensive to foreign buyers. They will experience both the rise in living costs and a drop in their own production. This combination will seriously affect their real income, and in some cases it is likely to be catastrophic.

The White House has been using a 1962 tariff-cutting statute (the Trade Expansion Act) and spurious “national security” justifications, neither of which apply, to enact these tariffs. But even if they did, tariffs as a strategy to counteract Chinese cheating and fraud will not work. This cheating, in the form of billions of dollars in stolen intellectual property, is significant — but it requires a far more targeted approach.


https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/06/trump-tariffs-china-harm-american-producers/



Go to the link and read the whole article, it puts the lie to that idiot Kevin O'Leary's nonsense and proves that ConsevaLoony is a dupe and a fool.

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38 Re: Tariffs on 7/25/2018, 8:18 am

This is from 2016 but lays out the unfair trade policies and practices of China pretty clearly.

https://www.industryweek.com/trade/it-time-stand-china

Do you remember when China was accepted into the World Trade Organization in 2001? Presidents Clinton and Bush, as well as many other public policy leaders, predicted that it would improve the U.S.-China trade balance and would encourage China to abandon communism for free-market capitalism, both of which would benefit America.

I don’t know how they got it so wrong. After 15 years, we can say from experience that none of those predictions have come true.

The U.S. deficit with China has ballooned from $83 billion in 2000 to $366 billion in 2015. This is a total of $3.6 trillion in deficits with China. During this same period, the U.S. lost 5 million manufacturing jobs.

China is still a communist dictatorship, though it has adopted a few aspects of capitalism in order to participate in global trade. Unlike America’s free-trade approach, communist capitalism operates on the strategy of mercantilism and plays the game by its own rules.

The U.S. has been an enabler to China’s approach. China continually challenges the U.S. by ignoring free-market rules and doing whatever it takes to capture market share. Meanwhile, the U.S. looks the other way when China breaks the rules, thus encouraging them to do it again.

The most recent example is the steel industry. According to The American Steel and Iron Institute, American steel mills have had to layoff 13,500 employees because China has been dumping steel in the U.S. The Chinese steel companies can sell steel at below-market prices because they are state-owned and, by definition, are subsidized by the government. [The U.S. in May affirmed that China had been dumping cold-rolled steel; the International Trade Commission will make public its ruling on the case on June 30.]

Further, a recent lawsuit by United States Steel Corp. (IW500/91) charges China with price fixing, stealing the company’s trade secrets, and shipping steel to the U.S. through other countries so buyers won’t know the country of origin.

"China is not a market economy, much less a free-market economy."

China is not a market economy, much less a free-market economy. Still, the U.S. continues to treat China as a free-market economy, with the hope that it will somehow encourage them to begin playing by the same rules governing the rest of the world. But, alas, it's not happening. Here is a short list of some of China's strategies.

Currency Manipulation – China manipulates its currency to keep the U.S. dollar value high, so that Chinese companies have a 30% to 40% cost advantage. This undervaluation is illegal and should be considered to be a direct export subsidy, yet the Commerce Department has refused to treat currency undervaluation as actionable under the law.

State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) – China owns and subsidizes many companies, as in the steel industry example, above. Through the subsidized companies, China can target a market with low-cost products, capture market share and drive competitors out of business.

Technology Theft – China knows that technology and innovation is what can make them the No. 1 manufacturer in the world, and they are prepared to get it any way they can. They have been accused of using espionage, counterfeiting and buying American technology companies as standard strategies. According to the US-China Economic Panel Security Commission’s 2015 report to Congress, “China’s government conducts and sponsors a massive cyber espionage operation aimed at stealing trade secrets and intelligence from U.S. corporations and the government.” This includes blocking U.S. company websites, revoking business licenses and censoring the internet.

Technology Transfer - As a condition of accessing the Chinese markets, China requires U.S. companies that build plants in China to create joint ventures with local companies—and share with them their latest technologies. Testimony to Congress by Patrick A. Mulloy asserts that we are slowly losing the Advanced Technology Products industries to China. Advanced technology products includes the more advanced elements of the computer and electronics industry as well as life sciences, biotechnology, aerospace and nuclear technology, all of which are central to U.S.'s own innovation strategy. In 2014, the U.S. trade deficit with China in advanced technology products was $123 billion.

Research & Development Facilities - China requires foreign companies with plants in China set up R&D facilities in China. As a result, foreign companies have built more than 1,000 R&D labs in China.

The Results of China's Unfair Trade Practices & U.S.'s Weak Response

So what are the results of China's unfair trade practices?

First, by now, everyone knows that trade agreements do not benefit all citizens; there are winners and losers. The winners are the multinational corporations who have plants in China. The losers are American small businesses and workers. The initial promotion of China trade promised that consumers would be better off because of the cheap imported products. However, China trade created a $3.6 trillion deficit, which eliminated jobs and stagnated wages. It is part of the reason the rich have gotten richer and the poor poorer.

Second, the economic strength built upon these practices has helped China grow its military might. According to the U.S.-China Commission, China continues to modernize its forces

"... creating additional challenges for the United States and its allies. Most notably, China conducted its first test of a new hypersonic missile vehicle, which could enable China to conduct kinetic strikes anywhere in the world within minutes to hours, and performed its second flight test of a new road-mobile intercontinental missile that will be able to strike the entire continental United States and could carry up to 10 independently maneuverable warheads.

“China is making big investments in modern submarines, ships and combat aircraft. For the first time, its Navy began combat patrols in the Indian Ocean. Its first aircraft carrier has conducted a long-distance deployment. China is exerting force to control its claims in the East and South China Seas.

"Perhaps of most concern is Beijing's apparent willingness to provoke incidents at sea and in the air that could lead to a major conflict as China's maritime and air forces expand their operations beyond China's immediate periphery."

What's Up with the U.S. Response to China's Trade Practices
Every Congress and administration since President Clinton has ignored China’s illegal strategies. Instead of facing up to the problems, the U.S. has chosen dialog, diplomacy and collision avoidance over enforcement.

This policy is generally called forbearance, which is based on the illusion that China will eventually see its interests best fulfilled by following the rules. After 15 years since joining the WTO, these policies have failed. China is the winner; it is a rogue nation whose reaction to our diplomacy is to be ever more aggressive because we have not retaliated. The U.S. is like the mouse who has seen the circling hawk shadow. Its strategy is to stay very still in hopes the hawk won’t see it.

Why has America taken this approach?

The limited response to China's aggressive trade policy has many origins.

First, multinational corporations and Wall Street spend a lot of lobbying money on both the Congress and the administration to avoid confrontations and to maintain the status quo. In 2008, as a presidential candidate, Barak Obama said: “China’s current trade surplus is directly related to its manipulation of its currency value." But as soon as he was in office, his Administration's rhetoric changed.

In 2015, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner praised China’s announcement that it would move to a more flexible exchange rate. But, alas, the renminbi only increased 1%; we'd been duped again. Later, Obama's next Treasury Secretary, Jacob Lew, said doing anything about currency manipulation "would have the unintentional consequences of stopping global banks from buying bonds to combat weak growth."

Kurt Campbell, who was assistant secretary of state for Obama, argued for a policy of conciliation in order to avoid the trap of two great powers clashing (collision avoidance). Other staff members say that Obama worried that putting any pressure to stop China's cheating would put them on the defensive and may backfire. And of course every administration is worried that if we upset China, they may quit loaning us the money to finance deficits. The policy of forbearance has not worked, and it is ironic that the most ruthless and unlawful are winning over the most lawful and ethical.

Still another argument used by conservatives is that anything we do to stop China from cheating will be viewed by China as protectionism, which could lead to a trade war. I find this kind of thinking laughable. We are already in the trade war, and China is a decisive winner. Mao Zedong said, “Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we will use to crush the enemy.” When will we wake up to the fact that China is a rogue economic power that will always take advantage of weak nations thatwon’t confront cheaters?

It is time to confront China, and we should begin with currency manipulation. It seems that government’s biggest fear is that China will stop loaning us money to finance the trade deficit. But there is a precedent for taking action. In 1971, both Germany and Japan began manipulating their currencies. The Reagan administration imposed a 10% surcharge on their imports, and they immediately quit manipulating their currencies. We need to do the same thing to China and other Asian countries, but the surcharge should start at 25% and be reduced accordingly if they comply.

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman makes the case that this surcharge (tariff) with China is not as dangerous as people think. He says, “Clearly, nothing will happened until or unless the United States shows that it is willing to do what it normally does when another country subsidizes its imports: impose a temporary tariff that offsets the subsidy.” He goes on to say, “It is true that the dollar would fall if China decided to dump some American holdings. But this would actually help the U.S. economy, making our exports more competitive.” The tariff should be announced as proportional to the deficit and be reduced as the trade deficit is reduced.

Why Standing Up to China's Unfair Trade Practices Might Work
Our imports from China employ millions of Chinese workers, and any reduction in imports would force big layoffs. This is a big threat to the Chinese government.

The article Myths and Facts about China trade says, a surcharge “will not likely have a major effect on the cost of consumer goods; to the extent that wholesale prices do rise, past history suggests retailers would absorb some of the blow themselves by accepting a lower profit margin.”

This article also asks the following questions:

Wouldn’t China selling off our debt destroy our economy and ability to borrow as a nation? China selling off its debt would hurt China’s economy even worse since they have invested so heavily in the U.S. China has $1.5 trillion in U.S. assets and there is simply no one that would buy them. China would be forced to take a huge loss on these assets. So it’s unlikely they would do anything that would negatively affect their own economy.
What if China retaliates by refusing to buy our debt or selling off all of our debt? This is a good thing. As economist Dean Baker argues “The United States has absolutely nothing to fear from China’s decision to reduce its investments in the United States and allow the dollar to fall and the yuan to rise. This decision would mean that the United States could finally get its trade deficit down to a manageable level. The trade deficit has been the leading imbalance in the U.S. economy over the last decade.” Clearly, NOT doing anything would only make the problem worse.
Won’t pushing China on currency make it more difficult to address our own budget deficit? The opposite is true. Producing more products in the United States would mean more Americans working and paying taxes instead of collecting unemployment, thus helping us to reduce our budget deficit. It would mean we are earning money instead of borrowing to buy things, leading to a more stable economy.
Krugman says, “In short, right now America has China over a barrel, not the other way around.” I think resistance to this plan would come from the multinational companies who have plants in China, more than the Chinese government.

The Congress and the administration need a plan.

First they need to commit to the goal of reducing the trade deficit. This is a big deal because many companies and politicians don’t think trade deficits are a threat.
Currency manipulation is illegal under Article IV of the WTO agreement, and it is time to make the formal complaint.
Develop a list of technologies that we don’t want China to have for their military build-up, and make it illegal for companies to give them to China under any circumstances.
Do not allow China to bid on any military or government contracts.
The Senate just passed The Defend Trade Secrets Act to allow companies victimized by theft of trade secrets to sue in federal court. But on May 11 2016 Chinese state owned entities backed by their government said that they have a sovereign immunity and can’t be sued. The Trade Secret Act won’t do any good unless we can enforce it. China has again thumbed its nose at us.

Now, I know the free market capitalists will scream protectionism and criticize any effort to tax Chinese imports. But they do not offer any solutions to the growing list of Chinese problems listed in this article. The surcharge on Chinese imports is a temporary solution, and will be eliminated as soon as the Chinese quit manipulating its currency.

If we keep playing the game using a forbearance policy, and China continues to break the rules, in 10 years we will increase the Chinese deficit another $3.6 trillion, probably lose another 5 million jobs, and they will have most of our advanced technology products. In addition, we may have to face China’s military in the South China Sea. I think this problem is at least as threatening as the war on terror because China now has the power to kill our economy.

It is time to stand up.

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39 Re: Tariffs on 7/25/2018, 8:06 pm

Don't look now, but here comes the EU President hat-in-hand to Washington to make nice with Trump on trade.

See.  It's working already.  They will all fall like dominoes.  Because they know President Trump is serious and they don't want their economies to fall into a shambles which is what will happen if they don't come to the table and negotiate free and fair trade in good faith. They are quickly coming to realize they are dealing with a STRONG US President and administration. Not a bunch of weak pushovers like Obama and crew who would sell America out at every turn.

Now that's some REAL news.  Not fake news.

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40 Re: Tariffs on 7/25/2018, 9:14 pm

Now that's some REAL news. Not fake news.

Too funny......do you even understand currency manipulation and the impact on trade. Why do you think the farmers in France are protesting and throwing bales of hay to interfere with the Tour De France? They know that after years of fighting American imports, they will even get more tariffs to protect their farmers......do you understand the concept.......weak industries which are failing ask for protection.......tariffs on American Agricultural products benefit the unproductive and less competitive french farmers.

Do you really think any intelligent economist with any major nation cannot see through the unfocused bluster of our idiot, and are not laughing their asz off.....he reminds me of a person with no medical training taking out a tumor with an axe. No one would argue the tumor was removed, but the patient remains quite dead, and being told that the next person he operates on it will get better. Again, a simple matter of intelligence.

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41 Re: Tariffs on 7/25/2018, 9:24 pm

The two leaders also said they would work toward “zero” tariffs on industrial goods, according to Trump. He added that they would try to “resolve” steel and aluminum tariffs he imposed earlier this year and retaliatory duties the EU levied in response.

Real news......please note that there was no mention of the EU tariffs on agricultural products, and that NOTHING has been resolved........Just more Trump distorting and lying about the simple truth......he will not be able to ratchet back quickly the growing damage to the free markets for American agricultural products. Again.....simple intelligence.

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42 Re: Tariffs on 7/25/2018, 11:56 pm

California farmers skeptical about Trump farm aid

The Trump administration on Tuesday announced up to $12 billion in assistance for American farmers hurt by rising foreign tariffs, but it remains unclear how much of it will benefit California’s largest agricultural exports, which include several kinds of tree nuts, wine, table grapes and dairy products.

And industry leaders say it’s unlikely to calm nerves among growers and processors across the Golden State, who are beginning to see prices for their products sink as tariffs cause a drop in demand abroad.

The tariffs are a byproduct of the president’s escalating trade conflicts with China, Canada, Mexico, the European Union and others.

China has targeted a number of California’s top export crops in retaliation for two waves of tariffs the Trump administration announced earlier this year. The latest set of Chinese tariffs, which went into effect earlier this month, ratcheted up duties on almonds, walnuts, cherries, grapes and other fruit to 50 percent or more. Europe, Mexico, Canada, India and Turkey — all top export markets for various types of California produce and/or dairy products — have also enacted new tariffs on U.S. exports in the last month, a response to increased U.S. duties on steel and aluminum.


https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/economy/article215445120.html

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43 Re: Tariffs on 7/26/2018, 7:46 am

2seaoat wrote:The two leaders also said they would work toward “zero” tariffs on industrial goods, according to Trump. He added that they would try to “resolve” steel and aluminum tariffs he imposed earlier this year and retaliatory duties the EU levied in response.

Real news......please note that there was no mention of the EU tariffs on agricultural products, and that NOTHING has been resolved........Just more Trump distorting and lying about the simple truth......he will not be able to ratchet back quickly the growing damage to the free markets for American agricultural products.  Again.....simple intelligence.

The govt has had their fingers in farming for 80 some odd years... see my link to fdr. Get some context.

EU Trade

"We agreed today, first of all, to work together towards zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies for the non-auto industrial goods," Trump said at a joint press conference in the White House Rose Garden with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

Juncker said the two leaders also agreed that as long as negotiations were ongoing, "we'll hold off further tariffs and reassess existing tariffs on steel and aluminum" put in place by the Trump administration. "This was a good, constructive meeting," he added.

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44 Re: Tariffs on 7/26/2018, 9:22 am

PkrBum wrote:The govt has had their fingers in farming for 80 some odd years.

So what? The government has the right to regulate commerce just as important as the right to bear arms. See the Commerce Clause and the Interstate Commerce Act of 1887.

The author of that stupid-ass article has been trashing FDR for 20 years. No serious economist takes his ravings seriously. FDR's New Deal legislation may not have been perfect but we wouldn't have become the richest and most powerful nation in history without it.

DUH!

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45 Re: Tariffs on 7/26/2018, 9:33 am

PkrBum wrote:
2seaoat wrote:The two leaders also said they would work toward “zero” tariffs on industrial goods, according to Trump. He added that they would try to “resolve” steel and aluminum tariffs he imposed earlier this year and retaliatory duties the EU levied in response.

Real news......please note that there was no mention of the EU tariffs on agricultural products, and that NOTHING has been resolved........Just more Trump distorting and lying about the simple truth......he will not be able to ratchet back quickly the growing damage to the free markets for American agricultural products.  Again.....simple intelligence.

The govt has had their fingers in farming for 80 some odd years... see my link to fdr. Get some context.

EU Trade

"We agreed today, first of all, to work together towards zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies for the non-auto industrial goods," Trump said at a joint press conference in the White House Rose Garden with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

Juncker said the two leaders also agreed that as long as negotiations were ongoing, "we'll hold off further tariffs and reassess existing tariffs on steel and aluminum" put in place by the Trump administration. "This was a good, constructive meeting," he added.

You know, there's not anything President Trump can do or not do that would make these nattering nabobs of negativity happy (to quote a great former vice president)  And I think President Trump  knows that and that's why he ignores all they hysterical screeching from the left and just does what needs to be done.

What the loony left doesn't understand is American Exceptionalism.  Without the USA, the world would quickly devolve into war, terrorism, poverty, famine, rampant disease, totalitarianism, and a lot of other bad things.  And deep in their hearts these other countries know this for a fact.  They know that there is no go-it-alone strategy they can successfully employ and leave the USA out.  They must deal with us. They have no other option.  And President Trump insists they deal with us FAIRLY.



Dow surges more than 150 points in sudden move after Trump reportedly gets concessions from EU to avoid a trade war


The major indexes surged in the last hour of trading after Dow Jones reported that the EU has agreed to import more U.S. soybeans.

The Dow jumped to close more than 150 points higher while the Nasdaq posted a record close.

Fred Imbert | Alexandra Gibbs
Published 5:58 AM ET Wed, 25 July 2018  Updated 16 Hours Ago


Stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday after President Donald Trump reportedly obtained concessions from the European Union to avoid a trade war.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 172.16 points to close at 25,414.10 after falling more than 100 points earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.2 percent to an all-time high of 7,932.24 as Google-parent Alphabet, Facebook and Amazon all jumped. The S&P 500 gained 0.9 percent to 2,846.07, closing less than 1 percent from its record high, as tech rose 1.5 percent.

Dow Jones reported, citing an EU official, that the EU has agreed to import more U.S. soybeans. Dow Jones also said the EU agreed to lowering tariffs on industrial goods.

Caterpillar jumped to close 1.8 percent higher on heavy volume following the report. Ford shares nearly went positive after falling as much as 4 percent earlier in the day.

The report comes as Trump met with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to discuss trade issues.dded that the bloc had prepared its own list of countermeasures.



Yay! Our portfolio just went up. Thank you, President Trump!

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46 Re: Tariffs on 7/26/2018, 10:10 am

ConservaLady wrote:
...nattering nabobs of negativity happy (to quote a great former vice president)  

...to quote a great former vice president who resigned because he was being investigated for bribery, extortion, tax fraud and a bunch of other stuff. Then he pled guilty to one felony count and lived happily ever after.

Yeah, he was a GREAT vice president--a typical Republican crook.

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47 Re: Tariffs on 7/26/2018, 11:12 am

Deus X wrote:
ConservaLady wrote:
...nattering nabobs of negativity happy (to quote a great former vice president)  

...to quote a great former vice president who resigned because he was being investigated for bribery, extortion, tax fraud and a bunch of other stuff. Then he pled guilty to one felony count and lived happily ever after.

Yeah, he was a GREAT vice president--a typical Republican crook.

haha.  I just threw that in there to see if anyone was actually reading.

But really.  The whole thing with Agnew was a witch hunt, just like they are trying to do to Trump.  Agnew plead "no-contest" (not "guilty") to a minor tax evasion charge just to make the witch hunt go away so it wouldn't continue to be a distraction to getting the business of the nation done.  He got a piddly 10k fine and probation.   That should tell you right there how thin of a charge they had on him.

President Trump won't back down so easy though.   They've got nothing on him, he knows it, and he's going to stand firm.  Because he's a STRONG President. He won't be Agnew-ed, no matter how hard the left tries. Get used to it.

Whatever one thinks of Spiro Agnew you can't deny he had quite a way with words.  He saw the loony left and the leftist media for what they really are.

Nattering nabobs of negativism

Supercilious sophisticates

Pusillanimous pussyfooters

an effete corps of impudent snobs who characterize themselves as intellectuals

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48 Re: Tariffs on 7/26/2018, 12:33 pm

You know, there's not anything President Trump can do or not do that would make these nattering nabobs of negativity happy


If President Trump gets a peace treaty with North Korea and our 38k troops are withdrawn from Korea, I will vote for Trump in 2020. Continuing the policy of militarization of American society must stop, and reducing our military by 25% and he has my vote, but 65 billion more in military budget is not downsizing an obscene mercenary military which has been responsible directly or indirectly for millions of innocent civilian lives in the Middle East. We have become the monsters we claim we are defending the world against. An American force in Korea is the aggressor in the region. Even the South Koreans want this mad man no where near their homeland. They fear Trump more than North Korea, but if he is not all bluster and actually gets it done, I vote for him. Sadly, like everything else he claims, the Korea negotiations are beginning to look like more of the same bluster.

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49 Re: Tariffs on 7/26/2018, 1:03 pm

Wait and see.  Trump's just hitting the mule over the head with a two by four rigt now.  That's all this is.   Once he's got the mule's attention, that mule will plow straight.

So.  To all the Chicken Little's out there let me just say.  No, the sky is not falling.  It's going to be a bright sunshiny day when President Trump gets done working his magic.   Wait and see!

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50 Re: Tariffs on 7/26/2018, 2:00 pm

The weakest President in American history. Never in our history has America seen anything like the timidity and cowardice of a President than his submission in public to Putin. You can talk until the sun set that this guy is a tough guy......he is not. He cheated subcontractors and he cheated students at Trump University. He buys a portrait of himself and pays for it with money stolen from the trust, and a guy who worries about superficial appearance is a tough guy? This guy is the biggest pussy in American history......and the funny thing is that folks who would normally reject this weakling have elevated him because he is a racist and that Trumps all other issues. The best part is the World has identified Trump as the clown he is, and never has a President been the butt of international jokes like Trump. A person of morals would have a hard time reconciling their beliefs, so it really comes down to crass racism is trumping rational thought.

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