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Florida Dem Flips Seat In District 45 Won

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That’s the 36th special election pickup since Trump’s election.

Democrat Margaret Good defeated Republican James Buchanan by a 52-45 margin in a special election for Florida House District 72, marking the 36th state legislative seat Democrats have flipped in a special election since Donald Trump’s election.

Trump carried the district by a 51-46 margin, so this isn’t a huge upset, but it does continue a pattern of downballot Democratic candidates performing substantially better in 2017 and 2018 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

The win also doesn’t do anything to meaningfully alter the balance of power in Tallahassee, which remains heavily tilted toward the GOP, but it suggests that the national political environment continues to be favorable to Democrats as they look ahead to the midterms in November. Democrats are looking to pick up a couple of House seats and ideally the governor’s mansion in Florida, which would give them a voice in the next redistricting process.

Vote totals are not yet available for two other special elections being held tonight, both in much redder districts in Georgia and Oklahoma, where the odds of a GOP win are overwhelming.

Long story short, despite Trump’s somewhat improved poll numbers, he remains historically unpopular for a president early in his second year, and Republicans are paying the price at the polls.

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I will wait until the primaries which are starting soon in most states. If Dems actually field candidates in tough races, then maybe I will buy into the thesis that we are seeing a change, but my instinct is that the core support for Trump remains, but right now being a Republican down ticket may not line up with his core support.

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A blue wave begins with the first drops.

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I am telling you that Illinois has always been 45-55 democratic, but Republicans regularly flip the same. However, the Democrats historically have not challenged in suburban and rural Illinois, and as my daughter who is working for a judge's reelection that the downside ballot has empty no contest races. So I will wait for the December 1, 2018 analysis of what happens in the midterms to see if this illusion which is being created in the MSNBC fog of hubris that by osmosis Democrats will win. If they will not even put up candidates, you cannot win.

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