Big business is bad for the American worker.

Wordslinger wrote:Our stock market just suffered big losses due to rumors that worker wages are going up.

In other words, what's good for you and me is bad for Big business.

It's good to know who your enemies are.

EmeraldGhost wrote:

Wordslinger wrote:Our stock market just suffered big losses due to rumors that worker wages are going up.

In other words, what's good for you and me is bad for Big business.

It's good to know who your enemies are.

The stock-market is in a bubble right now.  It needs to drop a bit.   And 10 year T-bills ought to be running about 4 to 5 percent right now if you ask me.

As to wages, from a strictly business perspective, "workers" are a commodity and "wages" are overhead.  Not all that much  different really than the machines they might operate, the business electrical bill, the cost of a salesperson's commissions, interest on business loans, etc etc

Unless/until "workers" organize in order to remove themselves from the supply/demand equation via bargaining for the labor/skills they have to sell .... (or unless govt intervenes to set mandatory wage levels) wage-earners will continue to be subject to that equation in it's rawest form.

Wordslinger wrote:


[b]I totally agree with you that our Worker's unions must be strengthened and made strong again before we will be able to achieve any form of power to limit the negative effects in inequality of those who regard us, our families and our wages as "a commodity."  

zsomething wrote:Stocks plunging again today.   Sucks for my investments, but, they were due for a correction.  They're probably going to go down a while due to worries about wage increases, and then inflation will do 'em some more damage.  It's expected, though.  The market's never smooth.

EmeraldGhost wrote:

zsomething wrote:Stocks plunging again today.   Sucks for my investments, but, they were due for a correction.  They're probably going to go down a while due to worries about wage increases, and then inflation will do 'em some more damage.  It's expected, though.  The market's never smooth.

The question being then ..... when to buy in.   Buy all the way down?   Start buying when it hits a certain number?   DCA for how long?   Which sectors?

(yeah, I know ... trying to time the market is a losers game, but I have been really needing to rebalance for some time now)

zsomething wrote:
The time to buy was... 2008!  

The selloff introduced a new degree of fear into the market, analysts say. The biggest worry for investors seems to be government policy, both from the fiscal and monetary side.

“Was it a good idea to hit the accelerator when the economy was already at the speed limit?”

The other major worry, though, appears to be over the tax reform bill passed earlier this year by Congress and signed by President Donald Trump. Economists and money managers fear that the increase to the $20 trillion U.S. national debt could carry major blowback to markets.

“The issue is, did tax reform kill the bull market or is tax reform a fiscal policy mistake? That’s what the market is struggling with,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research, in a phone interview.

Colas said the market now has to factor in the issue of inflation, which for about a decade has been largely a non-factor, and whether that will slow or overtake gains in growth and earnings.

zsomething wrote:And another walloping today....

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/heres-investors-nervous-stocks-right-now-171447766.html

The selloff introduced a new degree of fear into the market, analysts say. The biggest worry for investors seems to be government policy, both from the fiscal and monetary side.

“Was it a good idea to hit the accelerator when the economy was already at the speed limit?”

The other major worry, though, appears to be over the tax reform bill passed earlier this year by Congress and signed by President Donald Trump. Economists and money managers fear that the increase to the $20 trillion U.S. national debt could carry major blowback to markets.

“The issue is, did tax reform kill the bull market or is tax reform a fiscal policy mistake? That’s what the market is struggling with,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research, in a phone interview.

Colas said the market now has to factor in the issue of inflation, which for about a decade has been largely a non-factor, and whether that will slow or overtake gains in growth and earnings.

I am, admittedly, no financial whiz by any means, but even I knew that taking an economy that was booming (and had been since Obama, although conservatives would never admit it) and trying to goose it with tax cuts was gonna lead to inflation.   That extra buck-fifty per paycheck that Paul Ryan was crowing about is going to get eaten up by all the products you buy going up a lot.   When the economy's good you raise taxes and pay down the debt.  When it's bad, you stimulate it with tax cuts.  If Trump would accept the evidence of his multiple bankruptcies and realize he doesn't know shit about his personal fiances, much less the country's, we wouldn't be having this mess.

I'm not freaking overmuch about the stock market correction.  It'll gain back... for a while.  But it's likely Trump and his unneeded tax cuts have hit the brakes on the momentum that Obama gifted him with.  This is another reason I don't vote for conservatives -- they're shitty with economics.   As I always say, look at the states that elect them the most... they come in last in everything.  But, people refuse to learn, 'cuz The Bible...

EmeraldGhost wrote:
It's not the job of business to fix social inequalities.   The job of business is to make a profit for the owners.

Floridatexan wrote:
Kochtopus Wants the Little Guy to Buy Stocks as the Market Plunges

Well that didn’t last.

At the start of the year, prospects looked good for another banner year in the stock market, as the tax cuts President Trump signed at the end of 2017 boosted the outlook for corporate earnings and stock prices.

The tax cuts are still likely to boost profits, but markets are now factoring in some of the problems associated with tax cuts that Trump and his fellow Republicans never mentioned, and perhaps didn’t even recognize.

The S&P 500 stock index has fallen about 8.5% so far from its peak on Jan. 26, amid a global stock selloff triggered by worries about inflation and other factors. It’s hard, bordering on impossible, to pinpoint why markets rise or fall abruptly. But we’re seeing plenty of clues—and the Trump tax cuts are one of the suspects.

The main concern seems to be inflation, which could run a little hotter than investors have been expecting. Why might that happen? “Too much stimulus,” writes Greg Valliere of Horizon Investments. “The economy is in danger of over-heating, thanks to massive tax cuts, out-of-control government spending, synchronized global growth, and perhaps the most important factor: a U.S. labor market that’s exceptionally tight, with inevitable wage pressure coming this year.”

The tax cuts are pushing inflation expectations higher for a couple reasons. Bigger profits put more money into the economy, potentially pushing up spending, wages and asset prices. Taken together, that’s the inflationary surge, or “overheating,” many analysts worry about. There’s an optimal level of all these things (which nobody can ever pinpoint exactly), and then there are levels that are too high. The judgment of the markets right now is that these levels are heading too high, and the tax cuts are contributing to that.
Appetite for government debt

The tax cuts will also require the Treasury Department to issue a lot of new debt, since there will be less tax revenue coming in. That could push the federal deficit from about $666 billion in 2017 to nearly $1 trillion in 2018. Trump and his fellow Republicans insisted this would be no problem, since the stimulus effect of the tax cuts would make the economy grow by more than it would otherwise, generating new revenue. At the moment, however, markets seem to disagree.

The appetite for government debt isn’t bottomless, and too much debt in the market could force bond prices down, and yields up. That’s what is happening now, although it’s not clear what the exact cause is. But the abrupt increase in new government debt is clearly getting investors’ attention. Ethan Harris, global economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, notes wryly that the federal deficit is “the fastest growing part of the U.S. economy.”

“For the economy,” Harris wrote in a recent note to clients, “this means ‘crowding out’ of private investment, offsetting the incentive of lower tax rates. For markets, it means faster Fed hikes, rising bond yields and a stronger dollar.” And all of those things are bad news, relatively speaking, for stock prices.

It’s a myth, in fact, that tax cuts automatically stimulate the economy. That certainly can happen, but the effect would be most potent in a weak economy in need of help. The Trump tax cuts came with the economy strong. And if they don’t significantly boost growth—which few economists expect to happen—they will mostly amount to a transfer of wealth from future taxpayers, who will have to deal with all that extra debt, to current taxpayers.

There’s some good news in the market meltdown. The nature of the selloff indicates markets do not believe a recession is coming. If they did, the expectation would be for lower inflation, which normally accompanies a recession, rather than for the higher inflation the market foresees. So there’s a good chance the market will stabilize before long. But the tax-cut honeymoon may be over for good.

zsomething wrote:I almost don't blame Republicans for trying to get away with this stuff, though... it's probably irresistible when you know your voting base are a bunch of brainwashed dullards who believe whatever you tell them and don't  understand how a goddamned thing actually works.   We need to quit calling it "left and right" and just call it "smart and stupid," because it's becoming increasingly obvious that that's what it is...

zsomething wrote:Capitalism works... until an idiot who doesn't understand how it works starts messing around with it.  Which seems to happen every time Republicans get control of anything.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-tax-cuts-looking-hollow-right-now-154219849.html

Well that didn’t last.

At the start of the year, prospects looked good for another banner year in the stock market, as the tax cuts President Trump signed at the end of 2017 boosted the outlook for corporate earnings and stock prices.

The tax cuts are still likely to boost profits, but markets are now factoring in some of the problems associated with tax cuts that Trump and his fellow Republicans never mentioned, and perhaps didn’t even recognize.

The S&P 500 stock index has fallen about 8.5% so far from its peak on Jan. 26, amid a global stock selloff triggered by worries about inflation and other factors. It’s hard, bordering on impossible, to pinpoint why markets rise or fall abruptly. But we’re seeing plenty of clues—and the Trump tax cuts are one of the suspects.

The main concern seems to be inflation, which could run a little hotter than investors have been expecting. Why might that happen? “Too much stimulus,” writes Greg Valliere of Horizon Investments. “The economy is in danger of over-heating, thanks to massive tax cuts, out-of-control government spending, synchronized global growth, and perhaps the most important factor: a U.S. labor market that’s exceptionally tight, with inevitable wage pressure coming this year.”

The tax cuts are pushing inflation expectations higher for a couple reasons. Bigger profits put more money into the economy, potentially pushing up spending, wages and asset prices. Taken together, that’s the inflationary surge, or “overheating,” many analysts worry about. There’s an optimal level of all these things (which nobody can ever pinpoint exactly), and then there are levels that are too high. The judgment of the markets right now is that these levels are heading too high, and the tax cuts are contributing to that.
Appetite for government debt

The tax cuts will also require the Treasury Department to issue a lot of new debt, since there will be less tax revenue coming in. That could push the federal deficit from about $666 billion in 2017 to nearly $1 trillion in 2018. Trump and his fellow Republicans insisted this would be no problem, since the stimulus effect of the tax cuts would make the economy grow by more than it would otherwise, generating new revenue. At the moment, however, markets seem to disagree.

The appetite for government debt isn’t bottomless, and too much debt in the market could force bond prices down, and yields up. That’s what is happening now, although it’s not clear what the exact cause is. But the abrupt increase in new government debt is clearly getting investors’ attention. Ethan Harris, global economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, notes wryly that the federal deficit is “the fastest growing part of the U.S. economy.”

“For the economy,” Harris wrote in a recent note to clients, “this means ‘crowding out’ of private investment, offsetting the incentive of lower tax rates. For markets, it means faster Fed hikes, rising bond yields and a stronger dollar.” And all of those things are bad news, relatively speaking, for stock prices.

It’s a myth, in fact, that tax cuts automatically stimulate the economy. That certainly can happen, but the effect would be most potent in a weak economy in need of help. The Trump tax cuts came with the economy strong. And if they don’t significantly boost growth—which few economists expect to happen—they will mostly amount to a transfer of wealth from future taxpayers, who will have to deal with all that extra debt, to current taxpayers.

There’s some good news in the market meltdown. The nature of the selloff indicates markets do not believe a recession is coming. If they did, the expectation would be for lower inflation, which normally accompanies a recession, rather than for the higher inflation the market foresees. So there’s a good chance the market will stabilize before long. But the tax-cut honeymoon may be over for good.

I hope they're right about a recession not coming.  I'm a little less sure about that, but, I'll be overjoyed to be wrong.

Republicans always yell about debt... until they get in office, and then it's "Oh, don't worry about debt, that's no problem!"   And they fault Obama like crazy, but most of his deficit was because he paid for the wars that Dubya never put in his budgets!   Obama got stiffed with an eat-and-run bill and Republicans sneered at him for paying it.

I almost don't blame Republicans for trying to get away with this stuff, though... it's probably irresistible when you know your voting base are a bunch of brainwashed dullards who believe whatever you tell them and don't  understand how a goddamned thing actually works.   We need to quit calling it "left and right" and just call it "smart and stupid," because it's becoming increasingly obvious that that's what it is...

RealLindaL wrote:

zsomething wrote:I almost don't blame Republicans for trying to get away with this stuff, though... it's probably irresistible when you know your voting base are a bunch of brainwashed dullards who believe whatever you tell them and don't  understand how a goddamned thing actually works.   We need to quit calling it "left and right" and just call it "smart and stupid," because it's becoming increasingly obvious that that's what it is...

I've never wanted to think this way but it's becoming very difficult not to.

WASHINGTON — Republicans are pouring government stimulus into a steadily strengthening economy, adding economic fuel at a moment when unemployment is at a 16-year low and wages are beginning to rise, a combination that is stoking fears of higher inflation and ballooning budget deficits.

The $1.5 trillion tax cut that President Trump signed into law late last year, combined with a looming agreement to increase federal spending by hundreds of billions of dollars, would deliver a larger short-term fiscal boost over than President Barack Obama and Democrats packed into their $835 billion stimulus package in the Great Recession.

The administration is also expected to soon roll out its $1.5 trillion infrastructure package, which would include $200 billion in new federal spending, offset by unspecified cuts elsewhere.

The question is how much added fuel is good for the economy.

Fears that the extra economic boost could spark faster inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of interest rate increases appear to be at least partially driving the stock sell-off that has rattled markets over the past several days. Higher interest rates would raise federal borrowing costs as the United States continues to borrow heavily — the national debt has topped $20 trillion and annual deficits are creeping up toward $1 trillion. Treasury officials said last week that the United States will need to borrow $441 billion in privately held debt this quarter, the largest sum since 2010, when the economy was emerging from the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

The 2009 stimulus package was passed when the unemployment rate was almost twice as high as it is today, and the national debt was half what it is now. At that time, Republicans called it a dangerous borrowing spree. “This bill sends us on a worldwide borrowing binge,” Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, now the House speaker, said in a floor debate in 2009. “We’re going to go out and borrow four times as much money this year than we ever have in the history of this country in a single year. This is not just a road to stagnation, it is a road to stagflation.”

Fiscal hawks say that assessment is more applicable to the economy today.

“We have a growing economy, the labor market’s tight, we don’t have a lot of idle resources,” said Matthew Mitchell, the director of the Project for the Study of American Capitalism at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. “Basically, the very best argument for Keynesian economics doesn’t apply now. So it really is the time to be austere.”

While divided government in the last six years of Mr. Obama’s term produced constraints on spending, Mr. Mitchell noted, Republican control under Mr. Trump appears to be ripping them up.

PkrBum wrote:The tax cuts could just as easily generate economic growth that grows govt revenues or are near neutral.