Matthew

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118356&start=5780

As the ridge erodes that was suppose to steer Matthew away it is slowly drifting N.W. and most of Florida will be in the cone soon with the exception of the panhandle and who knows might do like Erin did back in 1994 and cross. Now we might have something to worry about.

ppaca wrote:http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118356&start=5780

As the ridge erodes that was suppose to steer Matthew away it is slowly drifting N.W. and most of Florida will be in the cone soon with the exception of the panhandle and who knows might do like Erin did back in 1994 and cross. Now we might have something to worry about.

Whoops thought I was adding to the thread "Something to worry About" hit the wrong button.

It is going to hit Mexico.

Yep, it's going to make one hell of a turn tonight and head for cancun.

I will be right sometime.......which is about the same as forecasters a week out.

Yep, the forecasters said a few days ago they were 99% sure it not hit Florida and with each advisory moves it over just a little west.

Hurricane forecasting is dangerously inadequate. The illusion of certainty kills people.

Everybody stay tuned as it could get a lot weirder tomorrow.  Some strange loops in the GFS and Euro tonight.  Hope the NHC can make heads or tails of it.

To quote from a regular poster on Hurricane City:

"The unmanned NASA Global Hawk is scheduled to drop 57 sondes today [Wednesday]. Between that and the NOAA G-IV, that should get a lot of good data for the models to maybe get a better handle of steering."

Sure hope so.

Here is Accuweather's Wednesday AM update:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/powerful-hurricane-matthew-to-unleash-life-threatening-flooding-haiti-cuba-bahamas/60475457

You can see the very beginning of looping back south at the end of the forecast track now.   Question will be where it goes from there.  We shall see.  Too far out for any model consensus yet.

Just saw the latest update, they think landfall will be between spacecoast and Jacksonville coming in farther to the west the re emerging into the Atlantic to east and curving back around south and possibly crossing Florida early next week as TS into the gulf. This is crazy.

Seaot your prediction just may come through and hit Mexico for the 2nd round next week.

Take care Sal!

Yea Sal, are you in the TS warning area yet?

ppaca wrote:Yea Sal, are you in the TS warning area yet?

Not yet, although if this thing does what is projected, we will be.

I'm not too concerned, although I do plan on getting water and gasoline tomorrow.

Sal wrote:

ppaca wrote:Yea Sal, are you in the TS warning area yet?

Not yet, although if this thing does what is projected, we will be.

I'm not too concerned, although I do plan on getting water and gasoline tomorrow.

I would go tonight to get gas and water, looks like southeast and south of you are running out of both from the nightly news report.

Our local meteorologists are calling for less than 2" of rain and nothing more than breezy conditions on the first pass. Both cars have full tanks, and I have enough water to last a week. Gonna fill my cans and put some more water in tomorrow just to be safe.

Sal wrote:Our local meteorologists are calling for less than 2" of rain and nothing more than breezy conditions on the first pass. Both cars have full tanks, and I have enough water to last a week. Gonna fill my cans and put some more water in tomorrow just to be safe.

Good luck and stay safe.

ppaca wrote:Yea Sal, are you in the TS warning area yet?

Not a warning area at all yet, just a TS watch, all along the Gulf side of the peninsula from about Cedar Key south, except from about the Naples area and down to the Keys is under a TS warning.

ppaca wrote:

Sal wrote:Our local meteorologists are calling for less than 2" of rain and nothing more than breezy conditions on the first pass. Both cars have full tanks, and I have enough water to last a week. Gonna fill my cans and put some more water in tomorrow just to be safe.

Good luck and stay safe.

What ppaca said, Sal. Sounds as if you have things well in hand.

That storm board is already comparing this to the 1928
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane

My mother was in that one and told us all about it when I was a teenager, their house was shaking and they decided to leave and all her brothers and sisters and parents crawled through a field over dead bodies. She was 14 at the time.

ppaca wrote:That storm board is already comparing this to the 1928
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane

My mother was in that one and told us all about it when I was a teenager, their house was shaking and they decided to leave and all her brothers and sisters and parents crawled through a field over dead bodies. She was 14 at the time.

OMG what a traumatic memory.

Yep heard that story many times while growing up.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118356&start=8020

There is a weatherman out of Louisiana on this board that has said since this formed as a hurricane it would end up at some point in the GOM and never deviated even when the projected path has been steady on course only veering a little left, but this just may end up in the gulf next week.

Sal wrote:Our local meteorologists are calling for less than 2" of rain and nothing more than breezy conditions on the first pass. Both cars have full tanks, and I have enough water to last a week. Gonna fill my cans and put some more water in tomorrow just to be safe.

Dang..... I just looked at Accuweather's hurricane update, and this thing is going to even affect Tampa from the back side. Your preparations are wise, Sal.

Fort Lauderdale to Saint Augustine are in direct line of Cat 4 winds.

Our whole state's insurance rates will rise once again, beginning in 2017.......