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The first worrisome storm of the season is now here

+6
Hallmarkgard
dumpcare
Sal
RealLindaL
2seaoat
Hospital Bob
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RealLindaL



ppaca wrote:
Bob wrote:If the models and the NHC forecast track holds true,  I think it will need to start turning by tomorrow.

You may be right.

From the 5 p.m. 08/29 NHC discussion re TD9 (BBM).  Note we're talking "2-3days" for the applicable steering trough to dig in -- not tomorrow:


Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4
kt.  There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution.
In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging
over the southeastern United States.  This feature should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the
eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida.
 The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the
latest ECMWF and GFS predictions.

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as
tomorrow morning.


So if somehow it happens tomorrow, fine, but if it doesn't, don't think that means Texas.

dumpcare



Well I don't think in my 25 years of living here and a depression in southern gulf a Mobile news cast saying it's all clear for the labor day weekend in Orange Beach and Gulf Shores. Although they're probably right they know anything can happen in the next few days.

2seaoat



RealLindaL



ppaca wrote:Well I don't think in my 25 years of living here and a depression in southern gulf a Mobile news cast saying it's all clear for the labor day weekend in Orange Beach and Gulf Shores. Although they're probably right they know anything can happen in the next few days.

I can tell you from discussion with employees of a popular Gulf-front hotel on Pensacola Beach that all the gloom and doom and hype about any and every northern Gulf Coast weather situation, potential or otherwise, over the past couple of weeks or so has really hurt business.   So maybe the Chambers of Commerce are crying uncle, putting a little pressure on the local media to ease up.  Just speculating; no evidence of same.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

RealLindaL wrote:
In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging
over the southeastern United States.  This feature should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the
eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida.

Here's the problem I have with their saying it will change course "in 2 or 3 days".  
Their own graphic of the forecast path says it will change course starting tomorrow,  not 2-3 days from now.  Hell,  3 days from now they have it crossing Florida.
Seems like a contradiction to me...

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 16 Track810

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

This one has it hitting Panama City on Thursday as a category 4 hurricane.

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 16 30wqw7l

dumpcare



RealLindaL wrote:
ppaca wrote:Well I don't think in my 25 years of living here and a depression in southern gulf a Mobile news cast saying it's all clear for the labor day weekend in Orange Beach and Gulf Shores. Although they're probably right they know anything can happen in the next few days.

I can tell you from discussion with employees of a popular Gulf-front hotel on Pensacola Beach that all the gloom and doom and hype about any and every northern Gulf Coast weather situation, potential or otherwise, over the past couple of weeks or so has really hurt business.   So maybe the Chambers of Commerce are crying uncle, putting a little pressure on the local media to ease up.  Just speculating; no evidence of same.

I agree the businesses got to the news stations. But business dropped off right after the southern schools went back and it was expected. It probably was worsen with all this talk about hurricanes.

dumpcare



Bob wrote:This one has it hitting Panama City on Thursday as a category 4 hurricane.

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 16 30wqw7l

It all depends on the next day and a half. It could even come further west and really have to sit over warm gulf waters to be a 4. Which model was that?

Oh it's still moving slowly west, better turn soon or that cone can be thrown out the window and replaced with a dart board.

2seaoat



Any chance of my saving the RV required my leaving on Sunday night. The dart board is the reality. I can only hope that is stays disorganized and continues to move west. How is that 72 hour prediction working for you Bob.......it is expected to have the forecast miss a geographic location, but to also miss the time frame by a day or two.....splendid game of darts.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote: How is that 72 hour prediction working for you Bob.......it is expected to have the forecast miss a geographic location, but to also miss the time frame by a day or two.....splendid game of darts.

That would prove beyond any doubt to all the extremely gullible people like me out here that hurricane forecasting is right up there with astrology.
I realized this when you used the Coriolos Effect to show us conclusively that the hurricane is going to Texas. What is your expected time for landfall on the Texas coast?

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

ppaca wrote: Which model was that?

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/north-american-mesoscale-forecast-system-nam

2seaoat



What is your expected time for landfall on the Texas coast?


Saturday

Morning Joe had your predictions on the news........

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

I'm honored that Morning Joe had my predictions on the news. That means the mainstream media is finally taking notice of my expertise as a meteorologist. It's about time.

2seaoat



I'm honored that Morning Joe had my predictions on the news. That means the mainstream media is finally taking notice of my expertise as a meteorologist. It's about time.

Joe always said he worked hard to get funding for the disaster called the Florida public schools and credited Jeb Bush with helping improve the same, but for some it was simply too late......fortunately they have not seen the real track of the hurricane....it makes it sweeter when my dart is correct.

2seaoat



I noticed that the projections have already moved 100 miles north of your projection Bob......pure darts.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:I noticed that the projections have already moved 100 miles north of your projection Bob......pure darts.

That shows you how ignorant my projections are.  I should have factored in more upper level troughs and lower level vortices.
But if my projections are off by 100 miles, wouldn't that mean your projections (Texas) are off by 1000 miles? lol

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 16 Shit10

2seaoat



.......and then Katrina hit and people died......my point that dart throwing pretending to actually forecast much better than forty years ago makes lots of money for people and kills people.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:.......and then Katrina hit and people died......my point that dart throwing pretending to actually forecast much better than forty years ago makes lots of money for people and kills people.

No doubt about it,  I've seen the light.  These gutter trash pseudo-forecasters trying to claim they can predict hurricanes just so they can get rich off of it is deplorable.  
I'm beginning to wonder if it's just a coincidence that Trump has a big mansion not far from the National Hurricane Center.  Do you think he could be pulling their strings?  It would not surprise me a bit.
I tell you one thing,  there's no way Mrs. Clinton will put up with this hurricane forecasting nonsense. Unlike Bush, she is far too much of a humanitarian to ever want to kill people with phony hurricane forecasts just to make money off of it.

2seaoat



I think age is impacting your delivery and timing......you need to move your act to the nursing home where they can evacuate you six times each summer based on hurricane forecasting.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

2seaoat wrote:I think age is impacting your delivery and timing......you need to move your act to the nursing home where they can evacuate you six times each summer based on hurricane forecasting.

That is my lifelong dream. To be evacuated from a nursing home during a hurricane.
But I'll need a wheelchair because ipilimumab has made it so I can barely walk right now.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

This one says it's coming to Pensacola on Friday...


The first worrisome storm of the season is now here - Page 16 Ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_4

But if you take a closer look at that map,  it's got even stronger ones over Montana and the California/Nevada desert.  lol

dumpcare



I am not convinced the track NHC has will pan out. It's doing some strange things down there and still moving west, giving that trough time to get by and then your latest post Bob just may come true and coming straight up and this far out will strengthen it quite a bit.

Hospital Bob

Hospital Bob

Looks like seaoat has been right all along,  ppaca.  Hurricane forecasting is nothing but a huge fraud.
I'm going now to gas up my vehicles and fill the gas cans for my generator.

2seaoat



The science says with low winds it will continue West, and I have yet to see a Latitude change which complies with the theory.......You need intensity and higher latitudes for the C effect and the fishhook.......nothing......it really wants to disrupt a Texas BBque, and sadly cause Louisiana more pain.

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