ppaca wrote:Bob wrote:If the models and the NHC forecast track holds true, I think it will need to start turning by tomorrow.
You may be right.
From the 5 p.m. 08/29 NHC discussion re TD9 (BBM). Note we're talking "2-3days" for the applicable steering trough to dig in -- not tomorrow:
Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4
kt. There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution.
In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging
over the southeastern United States. This feature should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the
eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida. The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the
latest ECMWF and GFS predictions.
Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as
tomorrow morning.
So if somehow it happens tomorrow, fine, but if it doesn't, don't think that means Texas.